The complicated part of this is that your tax owed (and, by association, a refund from over-withholding) is contingent on tax credits and deductions. The article mentions this in relation to EITC—briefly. But it doesn't mention other things, like the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction, which comprises the bulk of my refund this year.
I could monkey around with my W-4, but it would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul.