The paper might not be right on all points or might be completely wrong entirely. But it is right on one thing.
If you have have ever taken care of plants, what happens with a plant before it dies is something very odd - nothing.
It will look a little weak, but then it will suddenly completely die - almost overnight, shedding all leaves and going dry.
One thing's for sure, these predictions are exactly like a broken clock.
P.S: Shell is starting an exploration of oil in the Arctic, after Obama's executive order. I don't think the bit about investment in new rigs is well-founded.
In the case of Iran it's more just to try to hurt their economy.
- a reduction in Chinese demand
- increased shale oil production
- Saudi desire to reduce competition from high cost producers including Russia and shale oil
- the failure of ISIS to capture the Iraqi oil fields
- unanticipated increased production from Libya
That's just first order causes. Second order causes are things like the US desire to hurt Russian foreign exchange by hitting their exports, and Saudi desires to decrease investment in new technology.
Now all of a sudden the rhetoric is the slowdown the last quarter was due to the falling price of oil leading to a decrease in manufacturing orders for pipelines and rigs. The shift being that US produces most of its own oil (or used to before the latest Price Wars). If consumer confidence is low, the energy savings are paying down debt or going to savings, so now oil price falling is a net loss to the economy? Very hard to believe this, but that's the "word on the street".
Not like the price of gas actually stayed low for long, refineries tightened up and the price recovered significantly, even while oil remains down 50%. Oh well...
No, this is what happens exactly: "Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system" doi:10.1038/nature10723 [pdf:] http://vasilisdakos.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/veraart-... --> https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=1425709102799954480...
It's the observation that large and complex systems tend to fail suddenly and catastrophically.
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2014/12/fossil-fuels-are...
We see this in business as well: the falls of MCI-Worldcom, Enron, and the collapses of multiple financial bubbles follow this dynamic.