How is your model different from the blog post? Yours sounds like a paraphrase.
Do you disagree that Han is more likely to survive more difficult challenges than easier ones?
Do you disagree that Han is more likely to survive more difficult challenges than easier ones?
We're going to say that C3PO has records of two people surviving and 7,440 people ending their trip through the asteroid field in a glorious explosion.
Then the big question is how skill-dependent the challenge is. Is it like swimming across the English channel, or is it random like surviving the Niagara Falls in a barrel? There exists a distribution of survival rates as a function of skill level, we just don't know what it is. We could assume a sigmoid form. C3PO's statement gives us some constraint on what the parameters of the sigmoid are, but not enough. We could make some further assumptions and get an answer, but the results will depend strongly on the specific assumptions. In other words: we don't know the answer. https://xkcd.com/384/