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C3PO's estimation would have been a lot more useful if he'd calculated their odds.

Also his calculation suggests there's a strong open data regime in the empire, which is a nice thought.

The odds may have been based on simulation rather than "real data"

Ah but in that case I find it hard to believe a robot wouldn't take piloting skills into account.

For example when wind energy developers study wildlife impact they tend to include avian "avoidance behavior" in modeling risk of collision.