They must believe that GitHub will bow to their will
[...] That seems incredibly naive.
Plenty of technology companies would. Of course, they would call it "complying with local laws in all countries in which we operate".The only way to find out if Github is such a company is a few months of successful attacks.
If 'I was following orders.' isn't an excuse when you are in the military where disobeying orders can get you jailed if not killed, then no one should accept such reasoning when the pentalty is merely being unable to do business in an area.
Github is powerful and funded enough that they won't succumb. Its all the smaller websites who might male changes because of this.
Well, yes? Extraterritorial law enforcement works fine for the US, they're quite happy to shut down gambling, copyright infringement, and so on regardless of where you are in the world.
In this case, it's git. It's inherently distributed. It's fairly easy to force Chinese users onto a local equivalent and block all those suspicious outgoing https/ssh connections to github.
Do you have any source on that?
http://tech.slashdot.org/story/13/12/14/1618239/github-takes...
https://pipedot.org/story/2014-10-04/github-staff-jake-boxer...
There's several more sources regarding this, but I'm on a terrible mobile connection at the moment. Googling around will get you a bit more info for the story.
Countries are different beasts.
An American concept. Foreign to Chinese Legalism. Do note that "Free Speech" doesn't exist over there as a concept.
I think you're rather overstating that.
1. Free speech as a right isn't critical to the Streisand effect, and
2. "Free speech" as a concept certainly exists in China. The formal orientation of the government with respect to the concept (and quite possibly the public perception of the value of the concept) is very different than in Western liberal democracies, but the concept certainly exists, just as the concept of, say, "theocracy" exists in most places, even the places that don't practice it.