So ... the subtext that a lot of people aren't calling out explicitly is that this round of new APIs has been done in cooperation with the big engines. The Mantle spec is effectively written by Johan Andersson at DICE, and the Khronos Vulkan spec basically pulls Aras P at Unity, Niklas S at Epic, and a couple guys at Valve into the fold.
This begs the question: what about DirectX 12 and Apple's Metal? If they didn't have similar engine developer involvement, that's clearly a point against DX12/Metal support in the long run.
Also, the end is worth quoting in its entirety to explain why the APIs are taking such a radical change from the traditional rendering model:
Personally, my take is that MS and ARB always had the wrong idea. Their idea was to produce a nice, pretty looking front end and deal with all the awful stuff quietly in the background. Yeah it's easy to code against, but it was always a bitch and a half to debug or tune. Nobody ever took that side of the equation into account. What has finally been made clear is that it's okay to have difficult to code APIs, if the end result just works. And that's been my experience so far in retooling: it's a pain in the ass, requires widespread revisions to engine code, forces you to revisit a lot of assumptions, and generally requires a lot of infrastructure before anything works. But once it's up and running, there's no surprises. It works smoothly, you're always on the fast path, anything that IS slow is in your OWN code which can be analyzed by common tools. It's worth it.
I wonder if/when web developers will reach a similar point of software layer implosion. "Easy to code against, but a bitch and a half to debug or tune" is an adequate description of pretty much everything in web development today, yet everyone keeps trying to patch it over with even more "easy" layers on top. (This applies to both server and client side technologies IMO.)