Nobody looks at apps that are below about $5k in size. So that's your starting point for something simple (tip calculator, etc.). Web services, datacenters, anything algorithmic is way, way more (~50k?)
Never hire people on eLance.
Market: grows 10-20% every six months or so. You won't get rich, especially if you expect Apple to do all your marketing. You can make a living if you're competent. Blockbusters are pure luck, but if you get one you can make 50k a month. 5-10k a year is much more common for niche apps with no marketing (what everyone seems to write).
Free+in-app purchasing may change the market quite a bit ("oh, you want wheels with that car?"), but nobody really knows yet.
App review is a bitch, so get a developer who's been around the block to advise you on getting through review.
1. How do you get your clients?
2. Could you elaborate on "5-10k a year is much more common for niche apps with no marketing (what everyone seems to write)." I'm curious about your apps and results.
2. I don't talk about clients' numbers for obvious reasons. I'm not really sure how to elaborate. Can you elaborate on your question?
The figure I gave above is for a generic niche app that does a useful computation for those in a particular profession with no marketing budget. There are a lot of people who say to themselves "I'm a doctor, and I want an app that does X" where X is something doctors do. That is, the primary audience is the client. In cases like this, the marketing budget is 0 and the client's focus is to make a little extra income, but his day job is being a doctor, and making his own life easier. If he makes his investment back in a year, he's happy, and has 3-4 years or however long the lifecycle is of pure profit.
Other times you have people who use iPhone apps as a loss-leader (online ordering, etc.) for their real business. I have no way of tracking the "success" of this, but anecdotally the proposals are like 25% of the market.
The "startup" case--where somebody quits his job to develop the killer iPhone app--is actually not that prevalent (except on HN). 90% of these people are those flakey guys who "have a killer idea" that reduces to "Facebook for X" or "Let's make a CSI-enchance button for the iPhone camera." There are other problems too, that basically reduce to not having thought things through or not knowing what they're doing. The remaining 10% are legit, but it's work to separate them from the flakey people, and meanwhile I've got unsurmountable piles of Type A and Type B people's proposals in my inbox.
I'm also very selective about clients and I prefer working with very reliable people. I might raise rates on somebody new, but I haven't taken on any new clients in... at least 6 months; there's plenty of work to do for the existing ones.
I'm currently making apps for Disney and I price total projects based on a detailed spec (not hourly), but when you figure actual hours worked, I don't charge anywhere close to this rate.
Do you really not stay up until 4 am polishing the app even when you're over budget?
I typically take whatever I think it's going to be and multiply by 3. I'm usually 75% under budget with this method.
The market will certainly bear hundreds an hour.
Edit: I just saw you posted below about $40/hour. That's fine to overestimate when you're charging $40/hour. My comment is directed at Rothmic and malbiniak above. Apologies for the mistake, drewcrawford.
If the app isn't to our internal standards, we'll do whatever it takes to get there, even if it pushes us over budget (ie, staying up until 4am).
I think it's important that we make this clear to new developers, so thanks for clearing it up.
That being said, I think you will find it difficult to go around charging $125 an hour unless you are damn good. When I hire someone at $100 an hour (which I currently have), I know I am getting a guru. Your price should be indicative of your level of expertise. Your clients will find out sooner rather than later if you arent worth what they are paying you and that isnt good for anyone.
I generally advise potential clients not to expect too much from the App Store (~$30K-$40K revenue for a "good" game that's featured by Apple for a short time), unless they get lucky.
Our company is based in Vietnam and self-published a relatively successful iPhone game recently. Using it as our foot-in-the-door, we've been seeing ~$80/hour for smaller projects requiring 1-2 very talented engineers, and ~$40/hour for larger projects requiring more engineers.
Just wish there were more developers out there. I've been scoping projects and looking for resources but its tricky. Its such a different world than web that you almost need to find Mac software engineers really.
Since there were only so many mac engineers out there to begin with, its about getting old dogs to learn new tricks which is slow and painful, or college kids breaking in, which is where I'm looking...
edit: if you'd like to get in touch with me, my email's in my profile.
Depending on art, etc, they are 3-40k for most apps, and more for more advanced stuff.
iphoneappsiphoneapps at gee mail dawt com.
Relatively new to hacker news, still expecting it to be like reddit sometimes.