1. You will die someday ( so will I )
2. The Bay Area will experience an earthquake in next decade
3. A few islands will go under due to sea level rise.
I wouldn't like to call the above predictions - they are too sun-will-rise-in-the-east obvious. Its like looking at the dumbarton bridge & predicting - someday that bridge will fall. That's a biblical prediction - all standing things must fall, bridge is a standing thing, ergo, given enough wear and tear, it too will crumble and fall.The oldest standing bridge in the world is like 2800 years old & is in a much more geologically stable place than the Bay area, so what chance does dumbarton have ?
Now here are what I call predictions -
1. qqq $200 by 2018
2. esn replaces fizzbuzz in 2019 :)
3. cnn,rnn,esn become middle school curriculum in 2020
I mean, here you have a reasonable level of confusion. Yet, if you plot the probability over time for each of those predictions, the slope is definitely positive. qqq has doubled in the past 3 years, give it another 3 years & it'll probably double again. Given this pervasive SMI fetish, it's only logical that startups replace their fizzbuzz with "in the next 20 minutes, code up an echo state network in haskell". And if sama's actually right, cnns & rnns are going to get so commonplace society is going to want middle schoolers to ace their exams with questions on "ten key differences between the recurrent neural net & the convolution neural net" instead of the pedestrian garbage we teach them now - "on a z3, if 1+2=3 and 1+1=2, how much is 3+3 ?" So the poor kids instead of sweating bullets & laboring through convoluted reasoning like "since 1 + 2 is 3, so 2 +1 is 3 per abelian, and 1 + 1 is 2, that means 3 + 1 per cayley unique column entries must be 1, which implies 3 is the identity, so 3 + 3 must be 3 as well. Ergo 3+3=3. Voila!" can actually make useful technological predictions about which esn based startup will cross a trillion dollar market cap by the time the kid hits puberty.