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Comment by exelius | Hacker News Reader

I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia. I'd say best case for him is 10 years in jail. Because there is almost no question that he broke the law; he will be arguing intent and conscientiousness.

His chief demand will likely be that the government not charge him under the espionage act, which is so broad and inflexible it would not even allow him to present a defense. No idea what other legal statutes he could be charged under, but whatever they are would have to at least allow the possibility of raising the "I did this in the best interests of the country, not the best interests of our military contractors and bureaucrats" defense.

Oh, and also that the trial will be a media circus and keep the NSAs surveillance programs in the news for the greater part of the next decade.

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> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia.

That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it. As far as we know, he's still living a fairly normal life with his girlfriend in Moscow. He could be concerned about Russia not renewing his status in the future, though.

> > situation in Russia has deteriorated

> That's rather extreme, and I'm not aware of the slightest shred of evidence for it.

It's winter. Even diehard Russians who will gladly give their life for Mother Russia want to leave.

On a more serious note, I don't believe there is a place on earth he could expect to get treated fairly.

It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him.

What I did get out of Citizenfour is that Snowden understands international politics, and that he would know his existence in Russia will last only as long as Putin needs him for. But given the increasing distrust in Russia towards all things American right now, it can't be a particularly welcoming environment for someone who considers himself a crusader of truth and freedom.

>It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him.

"what they want"? he entered the country without any of the documents if those are what you're referring to. his safe life in russia acts as a snub to washington at a time when US/russian relations are at a historic low, which is presumably the entire reason they gave him a visa and refuse to extradite him to begin with. it's no great expenditure on the part of the russian state to host him, he's just a guy living with his girlfriend

Right, but if you're an FSB officer you're thinking "No way this guy doesn't have access to the documents. Let's keep him here and spy on him in case he leads us to them." After a few years, they realize he was telling the truth, and he's suddenly of a lot less value to them.

Eventually, Russia will want to warm up relations with the US. When that day comes, Snowden's time in Russia will be at an end. It's convenient for Putin to be able to use the US as a punching bag, but Putin will not be in power forever. It's probably better for him to find an exit now and have a bit more control over his own destiny.

you're projecting a whole lot here. there is no reason for snowden to have the documents and it would make much more sense for him to leave them with the journalists, if you accept his stated motivations. again, granting him asylum costs them nothing and acts as an symbol they can hold up to highlight US spying and hypocrisy. they benefit in PR from hosting him and you seem to have this bizarre idea that russians just execute everyone that isn't producing value or something. it's exactly those stereotypes that russia is holding up a mirror to by hosting him, people act like they're all ruthless barbarians but the US is the country trying to crucify this guy for leaking invasive spy programs to the public. they get to call out that hypocrisy

It's not just Russia; when you dabble in geopolitics, everything becomes a bargaining chip. The PR benefit of hosting Snowden is short-lived; his profile will fade over time if he keeps his mouth shut. Eventually, when Russia wants to improve relations with the US, they will likely use Snowden as a bargaining chip. He's not worth much to Russia, but the US wants him really bad. So they can use Snowden to extract something they want from the US (reduction in sanctions, for example) for relatively little cost to themselves. But there was always very little downside to Russia here, and a significant amount of upside: right now, the upside is in holding Snowden up as an example of US hypocrisy, but later that upside might be that he can be traded for something more valuable.

I'm not trying to single out Russia as a bad actor here -- the US behaved in a very similar fashion with Soviet spies and dissidents in the 70s and 80s. This is why you don't want to get involved with geopolitics - your future is controlled by situations outside your control. Snowden strikes me as a smart guy who knows all of this, which is why negotiating a return to the US makes sense for him.

> It could just be a case of the Russian government realizing he's never going to give them what they want, so they decided to stop helping him out in the hopes that a lengthy prison sentence might encourage him.

But they did get what they want. They got a great idea of NSA/US SIGINT operations and a smear against the US government.

What else do you think Russia wants?

Russia is not what I'd call a normal country right now, being as it's involved in a hot war, near-daily saber-rattling with NATO, and prominent political figures are being gunned down in public.

> Because there is almost no question that he broke the law

Perhaps. He may well have sworn an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign or domestic. And if he did in fact do that, then his "illegal" whistle-blowing is in fact required of him in order to execute his oath. You know, the whole 4th Amendment re: unreasonable search or seizure.

Knowing that he would be treated unfairly and seeking that treatment just the same precisely to expose that unfairness makes me respect him even more.

> I'm guessing his situation in Russia has deteriorated to the point where a US prison is preferable to staying in Russia

That may be the case, but keep in mind, in some way this story isn't news. Snowden has always said he'd like to come home. That hasn't changed.

I completely agree; the timing is curious to me though. Given how savvy he and his team (i.e. the reporters he's been working with) are with manipulating the media, I wouldn't be surprised if this is just becoming public because the US is entering into a presidential election cycle.

IMO the best political outcome for the democrats would be to have Obama pardon him as part of the presidential pardons every president issues on his last day in office. Bush actually gave last-day pardons to people accused of much more dangerous leaks of classified information (the whole Valerie Plame scandal), so it's not unprecedented.

Even if he goes to jail for 10 years and then gets out, then what? He would still face the big risk of "mob justice," since a significant portion of the population thinks he's a traitor.

If OJ can escape mob justice, pretty sure Snowden will be fine.

He'd be imprisoned for a long time for sure. But note that Rosa Parks wasn't. As a nation we're more ruthless now.

Do you really think this is an apples to apples comparison?

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