Berkshire Hathaway 2014 Annual Report [pdf]
berkshirehathaway.com
berkshirehathaway.com
Shortly after we purchased Gen Re, it was beset by problems that caused some commentators --- and me as well, briefly --- to believe I'd made a huge mistake. That day is now long gone. General Re is now a gem.
And, regarding Clayton Homes (their mobile-home manufacturer which also offers mortages both to Clayton homeowners and owners of other manufactured homes):
Many of our buyers how low incomes and mediocre FICO scores.. our blue-collar borrowers have often proved to be much better credit risks than their higher-income brethren.
This is interesting as it is apparently true, by the numbers, and also a slap at investment bankers.
I also love that the person who manages the annual shareholder meetings, "Woodstock for Capitalists", is a 30 year old that was hired 6 years ago.
Also, does anyone have color on went wrong with Tesco? Buffett writes that he lost faith in the management team, which seems like an unusually direct condemnation given all the other way he had to explain their exit from that position.
Usually the "higher-income brethren" are not succumbing to the ethical and moralistic brainwashing regarding defaults, and bankruptcies. For them "bankruptcy" != "I am a lazy, bad, and irresponsible person" it is just a risk calculation in an excel spreadsheet.
Ugh. "brainwashing"? A bankruptcy for a low- or middle income earner would be much more disruptive than it would be to a high-income earner. Your opinion (or how I am reading it) is elitist at the very least.
But that's just another hypothesis. I don't think the truth can be found with armchair reasoning; it requires data.
You might have to buy a beater while you save for a nice car, but if your income is low the equivalent option is taking the bus.
It would be. But I am saying even if even they wouldn't, the higher income earner will have less moral and ethical qualms about walking away.
In other words they would do the math and seeing that their million dollar home is under water, they would throw the keys at the bank and walk away.
While perhaps someone raised and believing in hard work, paying your debts, being fair and responsible, would actually feel like they are letting the bank down or they are violating some core ethical principles, and might lose sleep over it.
One of Buffett's claimed keys to success is being able to evaluate management talent^. Since he can't manage all of these business himself, it's important for him to have talented managers running each show. He has specifically built Berkshire to be attractive to this kind of person. E.g., when he makes an acquisition, the old management is left in place and continues to run the business, making it a great way for someone who has built a business from scratch to cash out and yet be sure their baby won't be dismantled, unlike a normal M&A that tends to fire all of upper management and gut half the staff.
So when he says he's lost faith in management, that is quite a serious condemnation. My guess (with no data backing it up) is when Tesco ran into trouble, they tried to feed him a load of crap about it, and he knew it.
^If you have not heard the story of Mrs. Blumkin of Nebraska Furniture Mart, it is well worth it: http://www.focusinvestor.com/Blumkin.pdf
Johnson & Johnson would be one recent (2012) example where I think neither the first nor the third conditions applied (though he only said they'd "obviously messed up in a lot of ways in the last few years" in an interview, and didn't discuss it in the shareholder's letter at all).
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/oct/29/serious-frau...
Tesco also has a hard time competing with Aldi and Lidl:
http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/news/1317297/why-tesco-cant...
Regardless of the accounting issues, they've had other issues too. There's the perception they're losing their customer base: they're ceding the low end of the market to certain supermarkets (Aldi, Lidl, Asda) and the higher end to others (Waitrose, Sainsbury's, M&S), leaving nothing in the middle. So that's a problem for them, and one they'd need effective management to handle.
All of this is potentially salvageable, but it is very uncertain, so I'm not surprised people might not want to invest.
[0] http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/09/cx_aw_0509derivatives.html
[1] http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/warren-buffett-and-th...
They blew £1.5 bn trying to expand into China, and £1.8 bn trying to expand into the usa.
Lidl/Aldi just seems like a new business model which we didn't really have before
During economic downturns, people with higher salaries are cut first.
With the acquisition of Van Tuyl, Berkshire now owns 9 1⁄2 companies that would be listed on the Fortune 500 were they independent (Heinz is the 1⁄2). That leaves 490 1⁄2 fish in the sea. Our lines are out.
There you go.
Berkshire itself is on that list, so surely there are only 489.5 to go. :)
Buffett buys boring, but practical businesses. Also, because Berkshire Hathaway owns insurance companies, their "float" can be invested. It has to be invested in low-risk investments, which is just fine with Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway has such a delightfully boring portfolio.
I think there's a difference between "businesses Warren and Charlie feel like they can get their heads around" and "boring businesses". Also: I don't understand why they bought DIRECTV.
Bonds, in general, are loans secured by collateral, while buying stock is just buying a slice of a company. Of course the former will have a lower return, as you only lose your principal if the company defaults. Whereas when you buy stock, you have no such guarantee.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110...
That is, however, U.S. stock market performance. Other countries have seen much greater volatility and long-term downward trends. Japan's Nikkei average remains at one quarter of its 1990 high, and is at roughly one half its 1995 level:
http://www.intmath.com/exponential-logarithmic-functions/dow...
http://intmstat.com/exponential-logarithmic-functions/nikkei...
edit: see page 22
I'd guess he's just being modest with his frequent professions of technophobia though. I'd guess he knows a lot about technology businesses, but just figures that it's impossible to see their futures clearly enough for them to meet his standards.
He did forewarn disappointment with the 1999 tech boom, so he can at least spot extreme misvaluation in trendy businesses: http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive... (if anyone wants to ctrl+f to the start of the relevant section, it begins with 'I thought it would be instructive')
http://www.gurufocus.com/StockBuy.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffet...
You can see he's added more to his position as of Dec 31st.
the big IBM drop happened in October.
If you liked the annual report, take a look at the "Owner's Manual" as well - it is worth a read: http://berkshirehathaway.com/ownman.pdf
That's an incredible amount of capex.
What is with the Geico ad at the bottom?
Contrast to the websites for their consumer brands like Geico.
Buffett's always been very conservative about not changing things that don't need changing for example no stock splits in the 50 years, same office for years, same house since 1958, doesn't use a computer at work - emails get printed out and handed to him - the annual report cover looks like it did in '64. I guess keeping things that aren't broken the same frees you up to work on what can be improved.
The Geico ad's new but Buffett often writes about it. It's one of the earliest businesses he's been involved with which he first went to visit in 1952, aged 22. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett#Business_career )
Geico is a wholly owned subsidiary of BH
(b) GEICO is unique among BH companies in that consumers can purchase its offering immediately upon reading about it. The nearest Dairy Queen is a 30 minute drive away from me, for instance. Look at the list of BH subsidiaries and try to imagine what they'd sell on a 24/7 1-800 number.
1. A Geico sale is worth a lot more than a fruit of the loom sale.
2. Geico is something that almost anyone visiting the site might use. Most Berkeshire Hatheway visitors own cars and need insurance.
One of the main links is a message from Buffet recommending Geico and Borsheims Jewelry. Jewelry fits the same bill: expensive, and widely purchased.My dad was always a fan of Warren Buffett, but I never knew much about him.
After reading this, I feel the same way I do about Steven Pinker. What a delightful mind. We are blessed to have people who are both humble and can think clearly.
Berkshire wins by using a formula that relies on them owning whole businesses with sustainable, predictable returns, ensuring that they're extremely well managed, and backstopping them with a gigantic pile of cash that they can use to roll up other smaller bolt-on companies with.
YC works almost exclusively with unproven, highly speculative new firms, with unproven management teams (many of whom will, after joining YC, hire their first employee ever), owns so little equity in each firm that they don't even get a board vote, and by design avoids further capitalizing companies they bet on.
That doesn't make YC bad; the model seems to work extremely well. It just seems like a very different model.
edit: HN->YC. Embarrassing.
BH also has an extra 50 years on YC, so of course the models don't match up. And I'm not Sam, so I can't speak to whether not YC's ownership or investment models will change over the next 50 years (and yes, I think there's a good chance YC will be around in 50 years). YC is focused on testing and validating its thesis across other industries, but the thesis started in one area. Very much the same with BH.
In other words, if BH's only value is that they can successfully help grow a candy company, an insurance company, and a train shipping company, and YC is able to help grow a fusion company, a hotel industry company, and a home cleaning company, then they are both doing something right. It seems they are both heavily driven by focused principles.
Another great point is that YC and BH don't have traditional competition. See pg 31 starting
"Berkshire has one further advantage that has become increasingly important over the years: We are now the home of choice for the owners and managers of many outstanding businesses."
In what way? Yes, they both invest in companies, and the investments represent people trying to figure out how to make money and beat their competitors. But there are a lot of differences in the details (Buffet has a source of stable income that people trust him to reinvest; Y Combinator makes money sporadically when other investors decide to buy their companies). They're about as similar -- to me -- as football and bowling. Sure, both sports have balls, but there are a few relevant differences.
Compared to ordinary investors, Buffet's alpha is consistently high. He looks like a genius. But if you change the definition of alpha based on his strategy, his alpha ends up being much lower. Personally, I don't think that diminished Buffet in any way: he came up with the strategy, after all; but it does show that his investments work because he's doing something different than the competition.
And, again, Y Combinator is also doing something different than the competition (or at least, different from what the competition was doing when YC launched), but it's also doing something wildly different from Berkshire Hathaway. BH invests in a small number of mature companies, YC invests in many small and risky companies. I would be interested to see what kind of personalized alpha YC manages to get (and, even, what kind of generic alpha they have). I don't know if they publish their investment numbers, so I don't know if it would be possible to calculate.
IMHO, there is reason to believe this is plausible. Injecting my own interpretations - the proportion of startups to established businesses in an economy is dependent upon a.) the pace of change and b.) the degree of interconnectedness in the economy [because when firms are tightly connected, there is a high chance that future technological developments will invalidate fundamental assumptions that existing firms' existence is based upon, while when firms are generally siloed and vertically integrated, they are unlikely to be affected by the entry of new firms into the market]. Both of these variables are increasing rapidly today. That's going to put increasing evolutionary pressure on existing old-line industries, such that we may see a mass-extinction event in the near future where a number of prominent industries all go down en-masse.
What Berkshire and YC have in common is a full appreciation for the effect of compound interest and a willingness to employ that capital by putting their fingers in an increasing number of pies.
This is the exact opposite of YC and other startup incubators. Their approach is to invest in newer companies with great potential, but also great risk of failure. The business models of these companies are not always clear.
From a personal level (I live in Omaha), I find it interesting to contrast Berkshire Hathaway and YC from a cultural perspective. YC is located in Silicon Valley, while Berkshire has its headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska. When asked about why he stays in Omaha, Buffett said "It's very easy to think clearly here. You're undisturbed by irrelevant factors and the noise generally of business investments."
Silicon Valley’s culture is the opposite of Omaha in many respects. Companies are concerned about chasing the latest and greatest trends even if many founders don’t complete understand those trends. Startups aren’t thinking about the next 10 or 20 years, they are more concerned about their next round of funding.
The success of Berkshire Hathaway demonstrates a valuable point: Silicon Valley isn’t the center of the world. Plenty of successful companies thrive in backwoods locations like Omaha. This isn’t meant to say Omaha’s culture is superior to Silicon Valley’s, they are just different. Diversity is a good thing.
YC is just about the opposite. "Find extremely risky things that have huge upside, and invest a very small amount". Both models are great and have proven to be quite profitable. Though to me, YC seems to be much more altruistic. At least currently, they appear to be much more interested in helping people to start successful companies than they are making themselves rich(er). I don't know exactly what pg's motivations for starting yc were, but it looks like it was something along the lines of "Starting a company was a risky decision when I did it , and I want to help others to have an easier time than I did" as opposed to "Gimme gimme gimme money". As a result YCombinator and Berkshire Hathaway probably won't be in direct competition for quite some time, as they are optimizing for different results.
If anything their model seems less exploitative to me...
Insanity.