How a half-million dollar Kickstarter project can crash and burn
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medium.com
They wrote:
As soon as the Kickstarter money hit our account, we should have hired an experienced hardware product manager.
And it should be:
Before contemplating a Kickstarter campaign, we should have hired an experienced hardware product manager and had them price out what such a product would cost to bring to market at various volumes.
Kickstarters work when they are the "D" side of R&D and fail when they start with the "R" side and try to get to "D".
I feel like we can extend this from Kickstarters to certain types of larger companies, where their expertise is in the D phase and their R efforts are largely fruitless (though granted, this is a bit of an exaggeration on my part).
In a way, it takes discipline to stick to the D phase and let others do the seemingly sexy R work.
These guys should be crucified. $100 retail means $30 BOM. This is easily a $30 BOM project provided you supply the labor.
Yeah, you're going to be working your own 3D printer. Pouring your own silicone rubber for molds. Soldering your own chips. etc.
However, you got $500,000. That's enough to fund two people (one hardware and one software) an entire year and still have $250K left for development.
They didn't learn crap.
That's the #1 lesson. You can't consult away all the challenges, especially not the core of your product. As he found out, no one else is going to give a crap like you will, and if you don't have expertise in that area yourself, you're going to pick the wrong people.
I'm still trying to figure out how the BOM got so high without alarms going off.
This is one of the ways an experienced hardware engineer can really turn things around from impossible to affordable- they can handle BOM cost as a major design parameter and drive down cost in ways a novice can't.
Everybody, but everybody, but everybody… And I do mean everybody, gave me the same advice over and over and over again. And that was to focus on the marketing and the message and to pick a price point before actually designing. Even putative campaign backers told me that they thought being able to match up specifications and deliver on promises was just a technical issue.
The reality is, as many others have noted, producing inexpensive commodity consumer-electronics is a far more expensive proposition than many realize, especially when you're talking about low manufacturing volumes or surprisingly tricky and expensive operations such as FCC regulatory compliance.
In the end I think this sort of thing is quite common… People hear and believe what they wanted to be true. And then they complain when companies cannot deliver on promises they made out of naïveté.
Sorry for potato quality grammar and occasional incorrect homonym… And being forced to use text to speech!
This though is part of the "nice thing" about Kickstarter. Which is you can set your price point for the quantity of units you offer on KS. Don't get funded? Couldn't make the market work, get more than you needed? Might be able to add a couple of points of margin to the bottom line. Danger of course is that if you get waaay more than you needed you'll be tempted to build V2 right away. Don't do that. Ship V1, pocket the margin and use that to design V2 with less risk after you've shipped V1.
I'm curious about your bluetooth experience. I've got a project I'm advising and any previous experience is always good experience in my book. The BT vendor (TI in this case) has offered to help with EMC certification although the project already has a bid for that from a local lab at a cost of about $50,000.
Regarding Bluetooth (LE), I've got a history with ARM stuff so stuck with Nordic's offerings. Cypress & CSI have nice stuff, but they really lock you into their environments, IMHO. I've got a nice full-stack gcc-4.9 based dev/debug flow for the full Nordic stack, and that makes my development way easier (and much, much cheaper since I don't need to hassle with IAR or Keil).
Mind you, I'm also comfortable with writing newlib CRT routines from scratch, so what's "comfortable and cost-effective" for me may not match your dev team's experience.
Anyway, back to BLE and KS. I found that the vast majority of 'small BLE device' Kickstarters seemed to massively underestimate the cost and complexity of both EMC design/certification, and Bluetooth SIG compliance/certification. That stuff is expensive!
As you may or may not know, if you design your own circuitry, you need to qualify your entire radio PHY and do a hardware re-qual. That's on top of FCC/IC/CE/TELEC certifications. It ain't cheap and it ain't a pretty process.
I ended up going with an Insight SiP ISP130301 Bluetooth LE Module because they had awesome antenna characteristics, were mechanically robust, they included the optional timing crystal that I wanted, and were relatively inexpensive (~8 USD in Q1000).
Using one of those, you do NOT have to do B-SIG qualifications (as long as you use the qualified vendor BLE stack), and as long as you use an approved antenna (usually fixed and included on the module) you only have to do FCC (or equivalent) testing that any/all consumer electronics need to go through.
For under Q10k, that's a no-brainer in price and ease-of-integration.
For a Kickstarter that budgeted 50k, received 300k, and was still nowhere near production, that's just really poor management and people like that shouldn't be in the business of making promises and taking other peoples' money.
Yes you should. Since when did we get the idea that failing at something (even spectacularly) should preclude you from trying again? Nearly everyone who reads HN has benefited enormously from the mindset that allows entrepreneurs to keep trying.
You just flatly assert that. Is it actually true? I don't know, but surely they've at least got their reputation, with backers and others, from this failed product.
> Failing at something is fine, being naive and irresponsible with other people's money - without repercussion - is not.
You're failing to acknowledge that kickstarter backers know -- or should know -- the risk. It's their choice to back a particular project.
If they aren't lying to anybody, where exactly is the problem?
The assumption being that the Kick starter investors ought to essentially be protected a little against their own gullability.
This of course all serves as a nice allegory of how rules requiring accreditation for some types of investment were born.
That said I think some perspective is necessary. Businesses of any size squander money every day of the year. So does the government, obviously. When a billion dollar business squanders $100M on a boneheaded idea nobody blinks an eye. Even though that money could have gone to employees or shareholders. When government projects go way over budget we don't care, because it's par for the course. It's only when tiny 5 people shops mess up that we become judgmental. I don't think that's right.
Squandering 500k is bad, but the 2008 crisis wiped away trillions. Countries start trillion dollar wars on the flimsiest of pretense. Lousy CEOs crash billion dollar companies. In the big picture, a 500k mistake just isn't that big of a deal.
"Internally we expected that at worst 20% of people who had signed up to the newsletter would pre-order, and at best 50% of people on the list would convert into sales."
I work for a brand whose customers are fairly passionate about it and those expectations are insane. A little market research would have shown that the 1.5% that they got was right in line with the standard.
> Yes, that’s it. I failed. We failed. It feels horrible, and it’s the end of Ada. But not the end of Triggertrap.
Uh... if I was your "friend" I would be livid that you weren't going bankrupt to sell off every asset you had to pay me back in full.
*Edit - My post was more about the use of the term friendship to absolve the author of guilt. Seems to have been effective This seems like shady business ethics to me.
(I'm not sure I agree that Kickstarter backers are that kind of "friends" to companies who took their money, but that seems to be the argument...)
No , the people you took money from aren't even your customers, because you didn't give them the service they paid for. So don't even insult them saying they aren't just customers, they aren't even customers to you. If there were, you would have delivered what you promised. They are just easy money with no strings attached.
> Kickstarter does not offer refunds. A Project Creator is not required to grant a Backer’s request for a refund unless the Project Creator is unable or unwilling to fulfill the reward.
> Project Creators are required to fulfill all rewards of their successful fundraising campaigns or refund any Backer whose reward they do not or cannot fulfill.
> Project Creators may cancel or refund a Backer’s pledge at any time and for any reason, and if they do so, are not required to fulfill the reward.
That "at any time" para is possibly going to cause problems to the backers.
But if you fail, you have no such obligation.
1) The rewards aren't dependent on project success, or 2) The rewards are dependent on project success, but the project is being Kickstarted to fund something that is prototyped and ready to go into production, and the funding level is set appropriate to pay the production costs for the delivered rewards plus whatever premium the company expects to need to go forward.
Its only unreasonable if the project sets the rewards and funding levels at levels that are unreasonable.
When the project sets the funding target and the offered rewards, its not unreasonable to expect the project to be responsible for actually being able to meet the promised rewards if it meets the funding level it set.
No one forces you to put a project on Kickstarter, or sets the funding target or reward levels for you.
Then every dollar from those rewards can go into development before getting to the manufacturing stage. Those lower-value rewards can easily be fulfilled, and if you realize there's some sort of fundamental problem with the project you have the possibility to shut it down and refund device payments before that pledge money is spent.
I realize that this is a very idealized approach and that in many cases the amount raised from ancillaries isn't that much, the bulk of funds come from potential buyers for the device. But perhaps that's part of the problem. I'm considering doing a crowdfund project myself later this year (for a film) and although I'm months away from making any decisions I am trying to think through contingency situations now.
Naiive business people who have suddenly received 100,000s in capital are the easiest to con
With a cheaper chip, better project management and using a shop like Proto Labs for tooling they could have made it happen. Resourcefulness, not resources. $99 is pretty aggressive, but it could be done with a slim margin.
Run the numbers first, THEN spend the money.
This sounds like an attempt to pass blame. How could their engineers not know from the datasheet if there was enough memory (presumably program flash)? They had a prototype before the KS campaign. They must have had some way to estimate the space requirements for the final design. Flash is cheap. Bumping up to a bigger memory can't possibly be the main cost driver.
Now I see that the prototype was an Arduino, probably implemented within the safe shell of the Arduino libs rather than working with the baremetal AVR. Clearly they were way over their heads from the start.
In fairness this seems to be a normal blind spot in many peoples' thinking. When I've discussed film piracy and market economics with people on HN, many people focus on the duplication cost of printing and packaging a blu-ray disc or suchlike in order to argue that films are extremely overpriced, or assume that there is a conspiracy among distributors to obstruct availability of films in order to extort money from consumers. It takes lengthy explanation to clue people into the numerous hidden costs of distribution (eg language-specific marketing materials, soundtrack-dubbing and so on), and that the considerable up-front costs of film production are typically financed by pre-sales agreements, and that most films do not have hyper-lucrative tie-ins like action figures, theme park rides, and worldwide audience anticipation that pretty much guarantees everyone will make a profit.
People tend to focus on the objective and then tell themselves a fairy story about how they're going to get there. I'm not immune. Now when I'm planning a project I try to come up with my best estimates on everything but then I go through and multiply lots of them x 2 because of the things that I don't know I don't know.
But specifically about not rolling in the fixed costs, it's much larger than that. Their BOM alone blew up 3x. Even if you planned poorly up to that point, what you then do is cut. You find the biggest cost drivers and get them down. Find a cheaper way to make a less-polished case. Ship with 40 hours of battery life instead of spending developer-months getting to 400.
Anyway, I really appreciate that he posted this post-mortem. There are too few of these for others to learn from. I hate when someone who obviously loves Kickstarter (and has successfully used it before) is called a scam artist. It may be all the same to a backer, but he's only guilty of mismanagement.
I design products for a living and I'm finding it hard to believe that the component BOM for this would be anything over $15.
Additionally, their case is a pretty simple two half-shell design. I can think of 5 vendors off the top of my head who would make the mold for about 5-8K.
I want to take his word about mismanagement but the disclosed details don't add up, unless he really has no product knowledge and is being taken for a ride by his supplier.
It's not exactly two parts. You've also got the pad for the buttons, perhaps the window over the display, and there appear to be three different body variations, for a total of maybe 8 pieces. Still, $50K is high for Chinese molds.
If you don't understand manufacturing well, you won't be able to effectively design a low-cost product - that's knowledge that should inform your early decisions. For starters, I wouldn't have made several modules - that's essentially making several products at once. Start with the minimum useful product and add modules after you've shipped.
As for the mold (and this is just an exercise at this point) I considered that the window would just be built into the mold and would be parallel to the parting line. The buttons could easily be cap sense buttons, and not membrane. It would only need an inexpensive pad printing operation, which they're doing anyways for branding.
And the company's going to stay in business.
How embarrassing.
There seem to be a misconception what Kickstarter is. Their FAQ is clearly explains it is funding. I'm sure if everyone who backs a project would read it, there wouldn't be so many complaints.
I've read their FAQ and I won't participate in Kickstarter. I consider it a bad deal. If I see something on Kickstarter I want, I'll wait until it gets retail release and buy it for probably the same amount and have no risk. And if it doesn't get a retail release I'll live without it.
With an investment you get the upside for the risk as well as the downside.
You are making an assumption that investment guarantees some stake, it doesn't. You only get what is in the contract.
Casually, you might say that you 'invest' in a new computer that you bought at the computer store (because you plan to make money by using it). But legally, a purchase and investment are two very different things.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chancebarnett/2013/09/09/donatio...
...when I first heard about it, it was frankly obvious that kickstarter was a devious way around SEC investment rules regarding the category of "accredited investor". Nothing since then has suggested to me otherwise. But that's how the scam works. It's a donation that feels like an investment.
If people are actually stupid enough to donate money thinking they are "investing" that merely shows the success of the con.
Simply reading FAQ will shows they are not a store, quoting:
At the same time, backers must understand that Kickstarter is not a store. When you back a project, you’re helping to create something new — not ordering something that already exists.
you might think they are( a store ), but that doesn't make it true.
It doesn't matter what Kickstarter FAQ says, a judge need to decide once and for all what Kickstarter really is and how can its customers defend themself against fraud and scams like Triggertrap. "I was an idiot who didn't know what he is doing" is never an excuse when you take other people's money and you promise them something.
Now it seems to explicitly refer to returning remaining funds. ("they offer to return any remaining funds to backers who have not received their reward (in proportion to the amounts pledged), or else explain how those funds will be used to complete the project in some alternate form.)"
Kickstarter has been tiptoeing this line forever between Not-a-store and Not-giving-people-what-they-paid-for-is-a-very-bad-thing.
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/triggertrap/triggertrap...
I understand Kickstarter wanting to keep the pressure on project creators while minimizing the perceived risk in the eyes of funders, but the current TOS seems to mirror the reality much better than the old one. (Threats of lawsuits and so forth notwithstanding.)
EDIT: Ah. This seems to have happened last fall: http://arstechnica.com/business/2014/09/kickstarter-tries-to...
If no one has sued Kickstarter, that may mean that Kickstarters has been successful at direct responsibility to projects rather than Kickstarter itself.
"Compared to a traditional remote trigger (...) it represents superb value for money - Trusted Reviews"
How about they add something like: "Took 500,000 from 'customers' and gave them nothing in return"
At least this wouldnt be misleading
http://tmsearch.uspto.gov/bin/showfield?f=doc&state=4807:9r4...
They really should have seen it coming. Red is pretty well known, even if you aren't in some sort of camera-related industry.
This search session has expired. Please start a search session again by clicking on the TRADEMARK icon, if you wish to continue.
http://tsdr.uspto.gov/#caseNumber=77668132&caseType=SERIAL_N...
In the "Refunds" breakdown on the Kickstarter page, it shows that they're refunding the remaining 20%, while Kickstarter is keeping the 5% fee. Shouldn't Kickstarter be refunding their cut?
Hardware is HARD. Fullstop. $500,000 is nothing for even something as 'small' as this.
Building hardware is actually "easier" in some senses than building software because it is so testable. More importantly building to the 'proof of concept' stage, or prototyping, is essential in a hardware design.
I expect that building their device for $500K was eminently doable, with an in house hardware engineer, embedded software engineer, and a mechanical/manufacturing engineer or someone who is really talented and can do all three acceptably well. You don't get their fancy injection molded case, you get something much more boxish, and your controls are simpler.
Perhaps the better lesson is don't assume anything you cannot do yourself but can describe is either easy to do or simple to do.
I agree that there seems to have been a gap in even knowing what they didn't know. But an informative and honest post.
The lesson should indeed be, don't go to Kickstarter unless you are dead sure you have all the expertise you need to finish the project in-house.
Yet I find pathetic people then complaining on kickstarter forums after a scam,what did they expect? there is nothing to expect.Because these consumers are not really protected,and kickstarter itself doesn't give a fuck about them.
On the other hand sooner or later, "backers" need to have a legal status.Donators,investors,consumers whatever, it needs to be regulated, like any other industry. Right now it isn't,but it will, mark my words.
Selling kits wouldn't require them to bring it to production, while at the same time letting people experiment and use their app. I don't want to re-create their product, but it would be nice for people who still want the product and are willing to do a little work.
This is an ongoing enterprise, so there are any number of ways that might happen. One is just to say, "Look, we don't have the money to pay you back now but we are converting your contributions to loans at interest rate $X and will pay you back when we have the cash, which we expect to be $DATE." Or give people a discount on some future product. Free software updates for life. Something. Otherwise this reads as kind of narcissistic: "It's been so painful for us to spend all your money!"
They also made any number of mistakes that are so large and well-known as to be nearly inexcusable. They were clearly learning on other people's dime, and that's kind of a problem when the product never materializes.
Outsourcing design and development is a terrible mistake for a boutique product. While this was a product management failure, the lack of in-house resources was an even bigger error.
For a $500K budget, zero money should be have been spent on design. Let the engineers decide how it looks. You can make it pretty on the second iteration. The first one will be charmingly ugly, and it will exist. Design people can suck down an astonishing amount of cash arguing about fonts, and that kind of thing makes a difference if you're selling to the mass-market, but for a niche/enthusiast/industrial product? No one cares.
I once worked on an industrial product where a design company burned a huge amount of money on everything from UI layouts (mostly unusable) to icon design, to fonts. I re-did their UI so it could actually be implemented with the development and hardware resources available, added a few icons they had missed, and replaced their pricey commercial font with a free one. Number of complaints about the UI from the people who had approved the design dollars in the first place? Zero. No one could tell the difference (I'm sure a designer would have gone spare looking at what I produced, but our customers weren't designers... they almost never are.)
Good design in a mass-market product can be a huge big deal, but hitting that perfect sweet spot the way Apple does so often is incredibly difficult and expensive. The odds of hitting it are so low for a project with limited resources that you're far better off not trying until you've got a shipping product.
If they knew their business model was only viable with 50,000 orders at $99 each, they should have set their target at $5million. Anything else is dishonest and deceptive.
http://www.protolabs.com/protomold
$10k buys you a LOT of tooling there and they'll do the maintenance on it if it starts to wear. Yeah you pay more per part, but who cares if it's a $0.20 or a $0.30 part when you're talking about going from $1 to $0.10 of overhead per part.
This whole thing reeks of massive, gross incompetence.
I'm not saying they should have spent $$$ on legal advice before setting pen to paper. Trademarks are A Thing in the world of business and not a particularly hard thing to learn about. If you're going to call your product 'Triggertrap Red' you shouldn't be too surprised when you get a letter from 'Red Camera' objecting to the apparent linkage between your product and theirs.
I mean, if you invested some sort of automotive accessory, would you call it the 'Javajosh Lexus'?
Sort of similar to when you launch a big AWS cluster and when you hit "enter" you know you just spent a lot of money.
Now, that's a lot to ask for in a letter - usually a Trademark C&D goes along the lines of 'stop or I'll sue' - but in the context of a money-raising campaign, and given the fact that Red Camera company had historically and famously employed the pre-order launch strategy themselves, I think it would have been appropriate to come down on Triggertrap like a ton of bricks. Don't forget that trademark law works on a 'defend it or lose it' basis - if you don't vigorously contest infringement of the mark, then some later infringer can raise a defense of constructive abandonment.
Not a lawyer, but I've long been interested in this subfield of law. Monitoring and defending the mark against potential infringers isn't cost-free either.
You do know the difference between speculation and knowledge, right? I'm not saying that you're wrong, but I want to point out how much you're reading into this situation. Consider the possibilities: what if that letter was a fake, crafted by an early stage competitor just to waste their valuable time and money? An effective hack, because it's probably not even illegal.
Of course I'm speculating about the contents, but I am familiar with the legal issues, know lawyers who practice in this area, and the camera market, as well as people at Red Camera. I think you overestimate the ease of the 'hack' you're imagining.
I'll be starting a build-it-yourself computer company soon. I'm going to call them Apple iBuilds or IBMs (I Built Myself!), I haven't yet decided.
No matter how you look at it that's pretty retarded.