I wouldn't worry about an extra couple of bytes nearly as much as I would worry about changing the behaviour of a function used in an "astronomical number of program", so this looks like a pretty reasonable and conservative choice, at least for an immediate patch.
My guess is that they ran a JMH benchmark with each proposed fixed, and picked the better one. In either case, I doubt that makes much difference.
I'd really hope that the JDK maintainers benchmarked against real-world programs before deciding which fix to use. My intuition is that the set of programs where increasing the memory usage matters is tiny, but the effect is large for them - it's the set of programs where the working set is greater than the L1 cache size. Equality comparisons aren't free either, they can often cause branch mispredicts. But the point is that performance tuning on real-world programs is very counterintuitive, and so the best way to do it is to run some actual numbers on actual programs.
I do agree with your analysis otherwise.