Firstly, JS isn't just about browsers anymore. Developers using node.js and io.js can use new syntax as soon as their platform of choice supports it.
For browsers, yes, compatibility means we have to transpile. But the day you need not isn't necessarily so far-flung. Like you say, browsers largely auto-update and, after a slow start, they are implementing ES6 features at a good pace. The ES6 compatibility table[1] shows the progress already made. Only WebKit is really lagging. IE.next/Spartan is actually leading the pack, and coupled with Microsoft's plan to give away Windows 10 free to Windows 7 and 8 users, it gives good hope for the future.
Also, transpilation can be a gradual strategy for converting code. The Babel (née 6to5) authors have stated their intention to keep supporting new JS features as they are added to future versions of the EcmaScript standard. I think we'll soon see Babel able to be used like Autoprefixer, which selectively adds vendor prefixes to CSS based on browser support statistics and a developer-specified target configuration like "last 2 versions" or "> 5%".
[1] http://kangax.github.io/compat-table/es6/