Alibaba begins drone delivery trials in China
bbc.co.uk
bbc.co.uk
The net result would be lawsuits and damaged drones I'm afraid. At least until a drone operator enters into an agreement with a hauling company.
I've seen the figures on the aerodynamic roof air deflectors they put on semi-trailers and they can get as much as ~8-10% fuel saving at highway speed (ideal size/fit) where the aerodynamic drag is dominant.
Semis average around 6.5 mpg these days (flat, highway) so a 10% saving is close to 1 gph of diesel fuel or about 2.80-3.00$/h.
So I'd guess drones would add about 1-1.50$/h in fuel cost or so when they latch on. Enough to be noticeable.
Except that it might be the last thing you'd see, before the drone fails and comes crashing through your windshield. Seriously though, if you're in the car behind a drone trying to land on a car ahead when it fails, there's no failsafe.
Or what if the drones hide on the back of the truck instead of the top?
And fuel consumption concerns are negligible. Sure, there likely would be a net increase in fuel used, but the premium is on drone electric charge capacity, battery weight, and drone range. A coordinated network of drones hopping onto trucks would greatly increase total per-drone range and make it possible to centralize drone freight depots even more (making them more sparsely distributed). This would push down costs a lot. The drone actually flies only "the last mile" and delivers only higher-valued goods.
The fuel was never an issue, sure there's a net increase in fuel consumed but not a net increase in energy as the drone is less efficient than the truck at transporting the same load.
A "last mile" drone is a pretty good idea, not just because it increases range, but because it avoids the need for the for the drone to return to the depot after each delivery. On the other hand, if the deliveries are tightly clustered it might sill be more efficient to just deliver them using the truck, as drones waste a lot of energy working against gravity.
Well, even crossing a highway with a large number of drones, is bound to lead to some of them failing and falling down into traffic? I suppose in some way there's some safety margin, having the drone do a controlled crash as soon as one engine fails -- but there must be scenarios in which the (presumably rather cheap) devices suffer sudden failure (eg: battery pack failure?).
I also wonder whether delivery trucks are in and of themselves as prevalent in China as they are in America, versus, say, bicycle carriers or other forms of delivery.
A truck on the freeway could be even harder, a drone would need to hold 55mph, throw in a headwind of say 15mph and you'll need a 70mph drone. Even on a highway at 40 + 15mph you're looking at 55mph in an environment with overhead lines, other vehicles, people.
Takeoff would be harder still, once the drone is released from a truck then it's instantly doing 55mph, or more if there is a tailwind. Should there be a failure during this mavouvre, there's no safety mechanism: the drone would become a 55mph+ projectile heading straight towards the following car's windshield.
So it's insanely dangerous.
Indeed. I believe the design is called "trucks" ;-)
One could of course have stackable drones and fit them in an open lorry, and program the route, order the drones so that the could take off in sequence... I'm not sure it'd be worth it though. I could definitively see fleets of "drone hangar lorries" driving around, slowing down to let drones off with deliveries, and taking on returning drones. I suppose you could set up a couple of circuits in big cities, guaranteeing a flightpath of, say no more than n kilometres from any one address to the nearest circuit -- and the drones might hop from circuit to circuit -- possibly even with a charge-station in the lorries.
Or change the lorries with purpose-build/modded electrical trains... (and fill in dead-zones with electrical trolleybuses).
Come to think of it, fitting trolleybuses with a "roof hangar" and charging station might be best: they typically don't go very fast -- and even if they do, they regularly stop to take on/let off passengers. Sounds like a good match.
The cars have a problem, that they can't get the products to their final destination.
Edit - a good talk on some of the issues that might be faced with traditional delivery systems: https://www.ted.com/talks/andreas_raptopoulos_no_roads_there...
A drone can bypass all of that inefficiency and show up in my window 60 seconds after the meal is cooked. In New York it could deliver to the fire escape or to a special landing pads, or just hover in front of the 3rd window on the left on the 5th floor for 30 seconds.
What happens to the illegal delivery guy living on the tip is an entirely different question.
This future seems positively utopian
Not saying it's impossible, but I see tons of additional concerns, both practical and related to safety.
All these arguments against drones have very easy technological answers.
There is little safe space to fly over in cities - you can't just start flying over roads and pavements, because if any malfunction happens, you'll be dropping a 10kg high-velocity brick at people and cars. You'll need at least specialized insurance for that, and I'm not sure if anyone gives this kind of thing.
http://defensetech.org/2011/12/21/marines-get-first-ever-res...
no need to imagine as there has already been successful POC of delivering Hellfire missiles into Yemen villages.
So far as none trivial but solvable problems - there's going to have to be communication with all vendors operating delivery drones. Each drone will have to be aware of other drones by other companies and their flight-paths in the area and avoid collisions.
The biggest problem that I can see is the customer and public themselves. What is to stop someone stealing drones? Or plain vandalism of them? Follow it in a car to it's destination and you know it's going to have to come low enough down for a quick grab. Otherwise if there's some controlled drop off point, air rifles or crossbows or other publicly available small projectile weapons.
It is profitable to have pizza hand-delivered in the US/Europe where labor cost is high. In China, I wonder how that is even possible.
The wages in a city like Shanghai, while obviously not comparable to a city like NYC, are high enough to warrant a drone solution.
Cameras on drones and laws. Stealing a motorbike is relativelly simple, and it doesn't happen that often.
Eventually the cops will start using drones, and the rest has already been told by South Park.
I guess someone could literally carry it away though, which is a separate issue.
Of course - that's why we try things that have never been done before. It might work really well, or it might fail spectacularly. In both cases the important thing is we learn a ton for the next time we try something we've never done before.
It's important we keep trying to do things we've never done before.
(Unless what I'm hearing is true, and being a non-Chinese company is a big hindrance.)
Enforcement is a different story.
Chinese aerospace laws, from a casual googling, seem to be very strict as well, and geared towards favoritism for their military.
If drones take off anywhere, I imagine it will be in the most transparent countries, like the ultra-liberal Scandinavian democracies. I doubt drones are autocrat friendly for obvious reasons. I also imagine there's a nice middle ground between planes and rc hobbyists with defined paths and lots of rules that will eventually shake-out in many countries. Drone delivery just makes a lot of sense ,perhaps not so much with toothpaste, but with, say blood or organ delivery where a proper helicopter costs many times more and an accident is lethal. A drone accident is just a lost resource.
https://www.google.com/search?q=quadcopter+injuries&num=50&e...
With just 4 rotors you are pretty much toast if any single component fails, with a well built and properly programmed 16 rotor craft you could theoretically stay up, or at least do a somewhat controlled landing on just 4, assuming opposing pairs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ScZ8zDsVvk
It's definitely an issue, especially with payloads, but it's feasible to work around it. I think you can keep strapping on batteries for quite a while, too--the lift of some of these machines is incredible.
The goal at this stage would be to validate the business model and to collect flight data and get a sense of the operational requirements. If it works and they want to develop an autopilot, they will then have all the flight data, landing zone choices and issues, and trained operators to consult.
Also, I can't help but recall seeing pictures of some cities with smog so bad I wonder if drone pilots would even be able to see at certain altitudes. Limited scenario, I know, but seems to correspond with population density. Dense population seems kind of the ideal market, so, yeah, just a thought.
Save the children and all that jazz. Someone mentioned crashing into children a couple of comments above, actually.
I wonder what is the difference in efficiency between drone delivery and the old-fashioned truck logistics, taking into account speed, carbon emissions, human factor etc – I wouldn't be surprised if 5x or 10x is the factor.
I wonder how often this happens for companies, where a PR stunt or vaporware press release from company A convinces company B to expend resources to "beat them to market".
A key quote:
"At some point I talked with Mark and Patrick about how Dominion Storm knocked us on our heels, and they let us in on Ion Storm’s dirty little secret: the entire demo was a pre-rendered movie, and the people who showed the “demo” were just pretending to play the game! It would be an understatement to say that we were gobsmacked; we had been duped into a rebooting StarCraft, which ultimately led it to be considered “the defining game of its genre. It is the standard by which all real-time strategy games are judged” (GameSpot)."
[0] - http://www.codeofhonor.com/blog/tough-times-on-the-road-to-s...
[1] - http://www.codeofhonor.com/blog/starcraft-orcs-in-space-go-d...
And of course, stealing from delivery drones is going to become a thing.