Are programmers in the Bay Area the new working class?

I live in Boston, which is another high cost of living area that prides itself on technology and innovation.

- I am told I am overpaid and life is comfortable but I know I'll be working until normal retirement age and am very concerned about ageism in tech as I get older.

- Very few programmers strike it rich. Probably immeasurable.

- I am told I am overpaid yet I can't afford a single family 3 bedroom home that doesn't need major updates to its systems in the town where my office is or the 6 or 7 surrounding towns. Some people obviously can, but it isn't me or my fellow programmers.

- I'd say no one will become wealthy based on tech salaries alone. Possibly upper middle class if you a) have a partner and b) they make 6 figures.

- I personally don't think our high salaries will last, at least not for as many of us as we currently have. I don't also think our salaries are particularly high especially considering all of the downward pressure on salaries in our industry.

- What will programmers do? This is a good question. The truly smart will skip programming all together and go in to medicine, law and finance where they have professions that protect themselves and/or have a respect for experience. The less smart but clever ones will grind it out in to management where you do find protection and respect for experience and the less smart and less clever will just feel happy they get paid above poverty wages in the US to play with computers all day.

I am curious about how a programmer would skip programming and go into medicine, law, or finance. Does this entail going back and getting another degree?

Graduate degree sure.

At least one of my classmates I graduated with (EE) is now a physician. A former (CS) co-worker went on to get an MBA and a Wall St job last time I talked to him and another friend left the software field to become a financial planner. Another got a JD with the intent of specializing in IP law and becoming a patent attorney.

For quite a while, the people I knew who made the most money were techies with MBAs.

I am told I am overpaid and life is comfortable but I know I'll be working until normal retirement age and am very concerned about ageism in tech as I get older.

That's exactly it.

And it's bullshit, because of the amount of value we generate for our companies--and if we don't, they aren't using us correctly.

So aegism is a thing I guess but not if you are good. One of my best guys is north of 55 and man oh man the code he can do and the reviews he can do put a 30 year old on the top of their game to shame.

So if you are good then I think aegism is not such a big deal. But, yeah, it's a concern. If my company folds I'm not sure how easy it would be for me to get a job (I'm 52 and definitely slower than I used to be).

I've consistently read that law is a bad bet these days:

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-06-20/the-employme...

From everything I've heard about finance, it is a dog-eat-dog world which everyone hates.

And medicine -- well, good news there, residents can now legally not work more than 24-hour shifts (they used to have to do 40).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_resident_work_hours

I chose academia, and although I love my job, and I'll probably get tenured soon, I might end up living the rest of my life in a rather uninspiring town which would otherwise not be my first choice.

I don't want to be sarcastic, or deny that your frustrations are very real. But from everything I read, programmers as a profession have it pretty good. Indeed, if I had it to do over, I would very seriously consider programming.

> I'll probably get tenured soon

That's a bold claim the face of fewer and fewer tenure-track positions being available, universities opting instead for non-tenure-track, full-time faculty. I'm glad you're able to make that claim, but your case is exceptional and not the average.

At least in my discipline, getting a tenure-track position is the hard part; afterwards, it's very typical to get tenure. (The only consistent exceptions that I know of are at absolutely top schools; and tenure-track faculty there often end up moving to slightly less good schools and getting tenured there.)

>your case is exceptional and not the average.

My case is not exceptional; it is merely above average. Certainly I got lucky, but not wildly so. I continue to pay attention to the job market, and it strikes me that people who have done work comparable to mine are, on average, getting positions comparable to mine.

(It is in the humanities that the situation is really dire, and that even the most brilliant people are getting screwed over.)

Who keeps telling you you are overpaid?

"The truly smart will skip programming all together and go in to medicine, law and finance where they have professions that protect themselves and/or have a respect for experience."

Those are the exact professions that tech will kill.

My advice: Do not worry. You're in perhaps the most future proof field.

The truly smart programmers go where the money is. They go work for hedge funds and investment banks, which already pay more than anything Silicon Valley will spit at you, and you have room to grow in your role (less "ageism" as you put it)

I'm running a 15 year old company in the Valley and have been a programmer here since 1987.

I do salary research each year to figure out what people are making so I can make sure I'd doing right by my people. I tend to focus on the .1% (point one percent) because my people are very skilled in their domain and I want to keep them.

What's interesting to me is that there used to be a glass ceiling for salaries for programmers. It moved with inflation but it was very apparent (to me at least). When I was a programmer at Sun (1988-1994 or so) the ceiling was in the $130K area.

If you wanted to make more than that you needed to go into management.

That seems to have gone away. When I checked this year for total [1] comp package I found that it appears to be about $325K. Remember, this is the .1%, these are people that google and apple and facebook and netflix all know by reputation and they all compete for the same person.

I dunno what a director makes these days but I'd guess that it is in the $300-400K range. The fact that an engineer, with no management duties, can make what a director makes is a relatively new thing. That didn't happen 20 years ago.

To try and more directly answer your question, if you don't get the payout (and I would bet that at least 95% of programmers don't, there is a reason I go by "luckydude") then it is super hard to maintain a decent lifestyle on a single salary. I've got a guy working for me, I pay over market, he still struggles to make ends meet. He could make it easier on himself by living in a cheaper area but he has two kids, wants good schools, good schools are most of what drives housing prices.

Too long; don't read: no kids means you can have fun, kids means you need two salaries.

[1] Total comp: salary, bonuses, healthcare, 401K match. Salary != comp. Many, many people look at only salary. We pay full healthcare for the whole family, that's $30K or more per year for a family of 4. We dump as much as we can into 401K each year, that can be another $30K or more. Etc. Total comp is all of that.

$130,000 in 1988 is $260,000 in 2014 dollars. And the tech sector is vastly more competitive today than it was in 1988, which is why these ceilings are vastly outpacing inflation.

The big question is when the ceiling will slow back down to slightly above inflation.

I don't write code myself but my startup partner is a programmer in London who has been struggling to make ends meet for a while now. There are certainly jobs to be had, most of which pay fairly equivalent wages to most starting salaries for graduates from what I can tell. However, what he tells me is that increasingly the core programming staff of a company will often be much smaller, with most of their gruntwork done by outsourced code writers in China/India. In this sense then, not only have programmers slipped into the working class, but their jobs have been outsourced with the rest of the manufacturing industry to South East Asia in the name of globalised capitalism. I think if you are looking into the shift of gruntwork programming down the career ladder as it has become such an integral part of the global production economy, then you must look into the growth of outsourced programming.

I don't think the job lost in US translates into outsourced job anymore. Cloud is destroying lot of bespoke app development, as startups are aggregating those bespoke needs of multiple companies into out-of-the-box apps. "There’s an app for that" is the future and worker class will shrink both in US and India/China.

Also, this outsourcing is a one-sided argument. You have to also look at companies like skype, whatsapp single-handedly killing telecom/sms industry, leading to millions of job losses in outsourced destinations. Globalised capitalism does not have winners. Only losers.

Globalised capitalism does not have winners. Only losers.

As opposed to the blessings of life in an isolated socialist workers' paradise? Which was more exposed to globalized capitalism, South Korea or North Korea? Which better matches your description of no winners, only losers? How about West Germany vs. East Germany? Which of the two participated in more global capitalism? Which of the two ended up with more winners?

How about Taiwan & Hong Kong vs. Mainland China back when the mainland "protected" its people from participation in global capitalism while Taiwan and Hong Kong rapidly became first-world countries? Or how about the mainland when it was isolated and anti-capitalist vs. China today, after becoming a full participant in global capitalism? No winners, only losers from global capitalism? And which part of today's China has been more impacted by global capitalism, the coast or inland? Where have lives improved the most in China judged by, say, the Chinese people themselves and their migration patterns? Why don't those inlanders appreciate how lucky they are to be better isolated from the global capitalism that ravages the coast, leaving only losers in its wake?

There is no doubt that global capitalism enables a rapid and large-scale co-evolution of economies, producing lots of changes, many of which are bad. But you have to have drunk the whole punchbowl of campus Leftist intellectual Kool-Aid to claim that global capitalism has no winners, only losers.

1) I meant global capitalism in the context of shrinking working class. It brings lot of benefits to consumers and creates competitive businesses. But, that competition/cost cutting drives outsourcing and leads to job losses in developed world. In turn, outsourced labor will be replaced by technology once it becomes viable/cheaper, leading to job losses in the outsourced destinations as well. Hence, no winners in working class.

2) If you want to preach globalized capitalism to other countries, you have to support outsourcing in the same spirit. Otherwise, it is a one-sided argument that turns a blind eye when technology (like skype) takes away jobs in the developing world.

BTW, you don't have to be leftist to point out problems in capitalism. Any healthy system needs criticism from within.

In the internet slump of 2004, a good salary was $120k/year. In the internet boom of 2015, a good salary is $150k/year.

Adjusted for inflation, those are the same amount.

You can't explain that.

First of all, you need to define working class. It's used in many different ways for different purposes. The traditional definition of 'working class' has always included white collar jobs, though. Programmers are not new to the idea of being employed for wages.

"What life is like" for programmers is not significantly different than for workers in most other industries. Their lives vary, their salaries vary. Often managers and other administrative jobs will make higher salaries for less work. As with any household in America it is common to require multiple people to work to afford the financial upkeep of a family. You get paid just enough to afford to live where you do; your employer isn't trying to make you rich, it's trying to make itself rich.

How are they different than workers in other industries if they have bosses and don't own their own companies? They get cheap accoutrements to hide long hours, monotonous work and lack of benefits. Mostly this is because managers/execs still think programming is special.

Will the high salaries last? That's almost the same thing as asking if the industry will last. All markets have highs and lows, and right now we're in a high. Eventually there will be a low. This seems like basic economics.

http://www.economist.com/node/12411838

If your question was 'Are programmers the new blue collar workers', the answer is: not yet. We still have a romantic ideal of programmers as special or creative or inventive. Many are already without an alternate skill with which to market themselves, and in 20 years time when the "digital factories" move farther offshore, we'll see the next big bust in the US economy, and 20 years after that all of us will start manufacturing goods for the Chinese.

I dunno about working-class, but it's sure not as cushy as it's cracked up to be. Kinda hard to call people who can't afford a house "upper class". But I'm not struggling like a lot of people, at least.

According to national average I am paid very well but I can't even afford a house on the outskirts of Silicon Valley. Houses keep going up so much each year it seems impossible to keep up financially. It seems like those that already have purchased homes are doing ok, but the cost to get into a home is so steep and it gets worse each year.

I've been hearing that same thing from many who work in tech. Are you a programmer and are you looking for a house now? If so, I'd be interested in talking with you about it.

This really has nothing to do with tech but globalization as a whole. It's more of a matter of increasing income inequality & wealth.

Wages for skilled labor has increased slightly since the 80's (doctors, lawyers, tech workers). While wages for the middle class has fallen and the market for unskilled labor been gutted.

Venkatesh Rao has an interesting take on this published in Forbes:

Forbes: Entrepreneurs Are The New Labor: Part I http://www.forbes.com/sites/venkateshrao/2012/09/03/entrepre...

Forbes: Entrepreneurs Are The New Labor: Part II http://www.forbes.com/sites/venkateshrao/2012/09/03/entrepre...

Forbes: Entrepreneurs Are The New Labor: Part III http://www.forbes.com/sites/venkateshrao/2012/09/04/entrepre...

Great, thanks for passing this along.

Why only the SF area? It could be very interesting to see if it's any different in London or Bangkok? I've heard some very interesting experiences about some hackerspaces in Germany too.

Thanks for the input on this question, very useful. It would be great to talk with programmers on this thread in more depth about the issue. The story is about the Bay Area, so unfortunately it is a bit limited. I am interested in anyone who is looking to buy a house and settle down. What has that process been like? What class do you see yourself in? Do you worry that there will be a flood of programmers that will drive down your wage?

I'm in San Francisco and junior mid engineer.

Well a house is out of reach unless there's an event with payout or you have 200k in the bank.

Renting a one bedroom in the city is 1700-2500. So after taxes, etc you're looking at about 40% of monthly income spent there. If you're savvy enough to get into a rent control place, then you'll be paying about 15% of salary, but you'll have roommates.

Family in SF? Good luck

"tech worker" is the new "knowledge worker", so IMO not exactly programmers. Sorry kids, Programming is not glamorous, no matter what all the Google/MSFT/Etc. "tech evangelists" spout on their blogs.

That reminded me of this, which I think is relevant:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8991732

You might want to include your contact info in your HN profile.

Houston, TX:

Where are you, and what do you do?

I'm engineering hire number one at a startup--I do primarily technical development, but I also train up the new people on the team and drive process improvements (pushing the use of things like short sprints, issue tracking and code merging with Github, etc.)

I also do sysadmin and super light DBA work (one of my guys is strictly better at that than I am, but I can make progress when I need to), and I also freely give feedback about what the company is doing and whether or not I think that's a good idea. It's my third (arguably fourth) startup I've been a part of, and the second I haven't founded myself, so I feel no hesitation in speaking my mind.

What's the economic/cultural difference between Google/Facebook and a startup with VC funding?

So, we're raising our series A having brought in some institutional investors, and so money is tight. I'm working on an old workstation with some new monitors, whereas a lot of companies later in their funding cycle will seemingly just give developers whatever they want--which is a good policy, because developers are expensive compared to hardware.

My previous startup here operated out of the attic of a machine shop, which we'd drywalled and run cable for, so I've been through worse--we're just in that weird spot between "must look professional for clients" and 'can't afford to give each developer nice hardware".

Economically, we're still finding product/market fit, and so the business team is constantly looking at new opportunities--some of them outside our core product and technical expertise--and that means that there is always the temptation to go chase "easy money" doing services work or consulting.

By contrast, my friends at Google and Facebook and Amazon seem to have no problem getting funding for basic development tools, and their product is pretty well defined. So well defined, in fact, that they get to sometimes play with really nifty technologies.

At the same time, the bureaucracy of those places is kind of insane compared to a shop with less than 10 people, and it shows in the way they talk. One was visiting during a hackathon this weekend, and while I was trying to finish some code they just kind of prattled on about their software review process and some other things, and I couldn't help but imagine that that sort of informal sit-down-and-waste-time talking about stuff instead of working could be pretty common over there for anyone above line-coder status.

What is it like for those who make salaries but don't get big payouts from stock and IPOs?

Cost of living in Houston is low, but let's not kid ourselves--the ongoing erosion of the middle class and the concentration of wealth means that, if you aren't making an exit, you might as well not even be playing. In a city as awash with money as this one is, you need only take a trip to the Galleria or certain bars to be reminded what fuck-you money looks like.

So, it's constantly on my mind what my payout is going to be, because it's easy to get a salaried middle-class white-collar engineering job here. In a startup, that translates to wanting to take risks and fail fast. If it doesn't work out, I can try again. Conversely, if the startup is being conservative and being run more like an SMB, I question why I'm still there.

How many programmers strike it rich? Are they making enough to buy houses and send kids to school?

Houses here are cheap, though schools vary widely, so even a modest salary can let you be a homeowner in five or ten years. That said, this city doesn't pay its talent as well as it could, and that means a lot of people who can't find a forward-thinking company will bail and go West or to Austin (which is a joke in and of itself).

Will their high salaries last? And if they don't, what will programmers do?

We don't really have high salaries, so if the bubble pops, it probably won't effect us much. What does effect Houston, though, is whatever the oil & gas industry is doing--the low gas prices have forced a lot of engineers out of work. That said, they'll all probably be hired back when that is fixed.

What do most programmers do in your city?

There are a lot of shops doing enterprise stuff--AlertLogic is a big Erlang shop that exited recently, Schlumberger and other energy folks have large software teams, BMC is still crumbling along doing database and services stuff. There are a few different devops/sysadmin shops here, like CPanel and HostGator (more admins than coders).

There are a lot of little consultancies, ranging from WordPress site creation to weird high-performance big-data analytics for energy. There're a decent number of startups, varying from consumer to tech to medical to energy, and all have found a place here--which is good, because it means developers can circulate if they have to and can have people to talk shop with.