Comment by d4nt | Hacker News Reader

Comment by d4nt | Hacker News Reader

I have a theory that the classification of working class, middle class and upper class will disappear as we go through the 21 century. They will be replaced with two types of job:

1. Jobs were you design things (code, graphics, marketing campaigns, franchise models, sales scripts, hedged trades, screenplays, new business models, retail store layouts, art, fashion etc) 2. Jobs were you follow basic instructions (flipping burgers, voice-over artists, uber drivers, sales, retail manager, factory line worker, tax accountants etc)

The first category is a subset of the current middle class, but it's much smaller.

Everyone in the second category is in for a rough ride. They will be constantly competing with machines, algorithms and millions of other people who can all follow the same manual that they have. Even jobs like sales where you'd think there has to be a human involved will be gradually eroded. Human intuition will increasingly be replaced by scoring algorithms and CRM reports. Their persistence in following up with people will be replaced by lifecycle emails, tracking algorithms and chatbots. And ever more transactions will be pushed online anyway.

I also believe that we're at the point of saturating our hierarchy of needs. Some people will try to monetise things like love, acceptance and respect of others (I can already buy a Facebook girlfriend on Fiverr). But I think this will be largely un-monetisable. Meaning we're in for mass unemployment. This is not necessarily a bad thing though, so long as we drop the stigma. People can be kept warm, dry, well fed and entertained with games and box sets, with relatively little cost.

Feel free to tell voice-over artists and other actors that their jobs are following basic instructions. Same with sales, managers and tax accountants.

So are some aren't. I can buy a voice over on fiverr, I can send them a script and a few notes and get back an MP3 within 24 hours. Over the next 50 years these people are at risk of loosing their jobs to computer synthesised voices.

If all Starbucks outlets look the same, sell the same stuff and use the same process, I'd say the manager is largely just following the manual.

As for taxes, mine are already prepared by a computer then just checked over by a human. That's not to say there aren't also high end accountants designing company structures and doing financial planning.

When I think of an accountant, I'm thinking of the kinds of ones that do company structuring.

And, congratulations, you can find people who are willing to do voice over work quickly. That doesn't mean it doesn't take a lot of creative work to get the right feel and urgency for the situation. Improvisers sometimes use scripts, too, as a stage gag, and they'll read the things they're using too, but it's them that adds personality, intensity, everything.

And managers, they manage /peeople/. Maintaining a store's stock isn't too bad. Managing people and solving disputes in a pleasing way for all involved, that's a much harder problem.

Tradespeople don't really design things, but neither do they just follow basic instructions.

I agree, some trades people will design solutions to problems, some people will just turn up and screw in pre-assembled units. The existing category will split into two.

Tradespeople are (economically speaking) substitute goods for buying a new good factory made. You can hire a guy to repair your washer or buy a new one.

In the future it will be even cheaper to buy new so there will be less need for repairing or custom work. As for the rest - well computers can drive, why shouldn't they be able to help your wiring your house? Or why shouldn't a single electrician (probably in India) be able to help 10 non-electricians with HoloLens wire a house?

Not really.

There's a difference between what a cabinetmaker does and assembling IKEA furniture.

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