How the iPad Went from Massive to ‘Meh’ in 5 Short Years | Hacker News Reader

How the iPad Went from Massive to ‘Meh’ in 5 Short Years

wired.com

43 pointsshahocean57 comments

Saturation and people are satisfied with what they have.

Take my mother-in-law (please) for example. She does _everything_ on her iPad. Banking, email, surfing the web. She literally (yes, literally) hasn't touched her desktop computer in years.

But, she's still only on an iPad 2. She'll run that into the ground before she'll get another. She loves it, but isn't on any "upgrade cycle", the same for many people.

Now, it would be different if iPad sales were down 18%, yet Android or Windows tablet sales were rising to fill in that gap. As it is, _all_ tablet sales are down.

Yes, clearly a factor in the tablet sales slowdown is:

Frequent computer users do not feel comfortable replacing their laptops with tablets. They bring their laptops with them. And then they say, "Do I really want to tote around a tablet as well?" The answer is no, their tablets languish at home, and they don't upgrade.

Very casual computer users may largely or entirely replace their computers with tablets... but they're very casual users. They don't want to be on an upgrade treadmill, and their needs are modest. An old tablet works fine.

When I go on a trip, I always take my tablet instead of laptop, just because its smaller and I won't be tempted to work.

My tablet can't replace my laptop at all, but it's a great device for traveling, reading, and watching videos.

Exactly

Whoever wanted an iPad pretty much got one already. That void is filled.

It's not selling as much as in the beginning, but of course, there are apps being bought, people get the new model (or have their iPad die on them - yep, saw it happen)

Besides I think iPad was something that Jobs envisioned when he was alive. He wanted, seriously wanted, to disrupt the education space with it. That's an important reason why he did not want porn to be easily available on the device [1] and why they had a large book-sized screen and not a mini to start with [2]. I think Jobs had a razor sharp focus back then.

After his demise, from what it seems, Tim Cook never felt for the iPad the same way as Jobs did. Tim is far more profit-centered than Jobs, and Apple's performance numbers lately speak for it. Unlike Steve, Tim Cook doesn't seem like a visionary either. He doesn't appear to have that urge of bringing change into the world.

He isn't of the type who has ability to bring that element of movement into his products. I could be wrong but it seems so. For example, he is unable to see the difference between the idea of revolutionizing education space and the idea of letting out a fashion accessory that competes well with swiss watches!

I mean you get the point, right?

[1] http://www.imore.com/steve-jobs-ipad-freedom-porn

[2] http://allthingsd.com/20120705/the-7-inch-ipads-biggest-crit...

Little known fact: the lack of copy/paste in original iPhone OS was a nod to anti-plagiarism and also an attempt to disrupt the education space

Honestly can't tell if sarcastic or serious.

In a way I'm in a pretty similar situation. I have a desktop for my day job, and an iPad mini 1 (1st gen) for evening browsing (so that I don't get sucked into work if I use the desktop machine).

There's been 3 updates to the iPad mini since mine, and felt zero need to upgrade. I'm very happy with my ipad, and most certaintly don't think it's meh, it's just apart of my evening cycle that I don't even think about any more.

I am a father of 2 year old. I did not experience being a parent before iPad arrived but I suspect it changed the parenthood completely. These days I see all kids of all ages interacting with tablets. My son started using one before he was 1 year old, now he is experienced user, able to start, launch games he likes and videos he wants to see on youtube. Its so powerful as it is scary. Everyone from parents is scared what it will do to kids. Parents are split on this, I embrace it (because its so easy to have a break from hyperactive son) but some fight it furiously and swear by it. How many parents are there in the world, how many kids are there? Is there a way for Apple to serve this market better?

I'm in the same boat, my tablet gets most use from my son. For kids it's a great hing. Before reading age, though - once he can read he'll get a proper computer and I'll teach him programming...

We have infants using computers more powerful than could even be imagined when their grandparents were born.

This is just the beginning.

How long until neural implants are installed at birth, the difference between man and machine is undefinable, and life is experienced as much in the 'real' world as it is in the virtual one?

There are already many successful projects allowing the blind to see and the paralyzed to walk with neural implants.

computers in 1965:computers in 2015 :: man machine interfaces in 2015 : man machine interfaces in 2065

What will the war between luddites and technologists look like?

http://nextshark.com/why-steve-jobs-didnt-let-his-kids-use-i...

Indeed same here. It just works for the kids.

The article misses a more likely reason for the declining sales: maybe sales of the iPad are declining - not because the iPad has lost its appeal - but because the market is saturating and most people who wanted an iPad, have already got one. Folks who have iPads that are 3 or 4 year old are not in the market for newer models - as the old ones are working just fine.

And thus the beauty of the iPhone 6+, which will cannibalize iPad Mini sales at a higher (!!) price point than the mini, with a shorter refresh cycle (2 years).

In other news, I am super happy with my iPad Air (2013 model) and don't plan on upgrading until new apps no longer support whatever OS can comfortably run on the hardware (I'm guessing iOS9 will be tough to handle, and some apps will stop supporting iOS8 around E2016-2017)

Indeed. I use an iPad to make drawings for online lessons. It made drawings well when I got it in 2012, and it continues to make drawings well.

I won't ever upgrade unless it breaks or software updates junk it. Why would I?

It would be a mistake to view my reluctance to upgrade as a bad thing, from apple's perspective. I've bought two MacBook airs since (I needed an upgrade for work projects). The fact that the iPad is so reliable is one of the reasons I buy apple products without much though. So far, they work, and they last. I'm writing this message on an iPhone 4 from 2010. Still works wonderfully. (only because I'm running iOS 5 though)

> Indeed. I use an iPad to make drawings for online lessons. It made drawings well when I got it in 2012, and it continues to make drawings well.

What all tools/apps/stylus you use? What's the entire process is like? Can you show some of your videos?

They're just drawings to illustrate what I'm talking about, nothing fancy.

I use jotwithme, a whiteboard app, and an alupen stylus.

I'm actually planning to use these to make some online videos. I tried a Wacom tablet but ha no drawing skills with it. I haven't found a better drawing app that lets me project to the screen. It's a little messy, but I think in my niche (education) it actually goes over well.

Btw, bought my first iPad the year I started my business, when money was short. But it let me teach people online, so it paid for itself in a couple months, and then is pure profit. The ROI to owning it for my limited use case has been astronomical.

If you don't mind answering ill second the other comment, also, do you use a stylus? If so which one? I thought I'd try that out but I haven't found one with a fine enough tip that works well yet :-s

I like the alupen. Very comfortable to hold. Not sure how fine the tip is for professional drawing, but works great for lessons.

I'm writing on my retina mini in bed. Didn't need the upgrade last year, probably won't need this year's upgrade either. Likely will buy a new iPad in 2016.

I think there's a lot to this. My house has one iPad (an iPad 2) that still works great and gets daily use by everyone in the family. We have about four or five Macs, three of which are working but my laptop is the only one that gets much use. We also have 6 or 7 iPhones, two on a current plan, one the kid uses to play games, one is used as an alarm clock in the bedroom, the rest are gathering dust in a drawer. So even though it's probably our most used device it's less than 10% of our Apple hardware stock.

To quote the article: "The issue isn’t people don’t want iPads. It’s just that people don’t want them in increasing numbers anymore."

Isn't that that, roughly, the same point you are trying to make?

Agreed, but obviously, that would be not a great headline.

It's crazy how out of whack people's expectations for Apple have become.

I mean after the string of iMac => iPod => iTunes => iPhone, people were just expecting iPad to split the earth in half or I don't know what. Not that the article's reasoning is wrong about the ultimate utility of an iPad, but I find it really hard to describe it as a "meh" product. Remember tablets before the iPad? There were a lot of them but you probably don't remember any because none got any market traction whatsoever.

I'm not convinced that the iPad was all that revolutionary, I think that 2009/10 was the year when the hardware needed to build a successful tablet became cheap enough to build a profitable one. The equally successful Galaxy Tab launched just half a year later, and Samsung obviously didn't start working on it after the iPad launch. It really was an "obvious" thing given the wild success of smartphones (not that the engineering/software/UX work was in any way trivial).

you might want to google "equally successful" (http://appleinsider.com/articles/14/04/11/exclusive-apple-vs...).

Michael Arrington was going on about making a similar product, the Crunchpad for a couple of years before. Still it was Apple that actually built a decent product.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JooJoo#Crunchpad

    > people were just expecting iPad to split the earth in half

... and it did.

This time last year, 42% of Americans over the age of 18 had a tablet, of which 75% had an iPad. That is, 31% OF AMERICAN ADULTS OWNED AN iPAD.[1]

Only 78% - at that time - had a laptop of a desktop, of any brand[2].

1/3 the number of people who own a computer in the US own an iPad. That is market penetration that beggars belief, for a product that didn't exist 5 years ago.

[1] http://marketingland.com/pew-50-percent-in-us-now-own-tablet... [2] http://www.pewinternet.org/data-trend/mobile/device-ownershi...

That's just one of the average countries. What about the whole world?

I think thats just natural maturity of the product. Novelty has worn off but there's still enough utility to drive steady mainstream demand. 'Meh' is a bit harsh. It's just become a standard piece of your house like a TV or coffee maker that you now assume is probably going to be present. Not a bad place to be for Apple for a five year old product.

As others have said, a lot of people already own iPads and there's nothing about the current concept/design that encourages especially upgrade cycles. Not that there's anything wrong with that from a consumer perspective. It does what it does pretty well and doesn't really call out for incremental improvements to battery life/resolution/processor power/etc. although those do naturally come about with each iteration. And, of course, the carriers don't subsidize upgrade cycles as they do with phones.

Being able to share data plans with phones at nominal cost would be one interesting upgrade driver but that's really in the hands of the carriers and is unlikely.

The other interesting possibility across both Macbook and iPad lines would be some sort of reconvergence of tablet and laptop experience but Apple got to where it is by doing the precise opposite so I'm not sure Apple feels a big impetus to shift up the playing field right now. (Microsoft OTOH has been trying to parlay its desktop strength with tablets that are more tightly coupled but with somewhat limited success--to say nothing of the fact that Windows 8 was largely a product of this thinking.)

Anecdotal data point: I'm typing this reply on an original iPad I bought on release day, and haven't yet felt the need to upgrade.

And in response to the last snarky line in the article - who buys magazines that pile up on the coffee table any more? I used to have a $60 or $70 a month magazine habit - its been years since I bought a magazine. About a grand for this iPad (Australian price ing), plus maybe another $900 in 3G connection, I reckon I saved all that in under two years of iPad ownership in savings from not needing to buy 5 or 10 magazines a month to have something to read over lunch.

I gave my original to my dad--who loves it and this is someone who could never really use a computer. Given that I'm tech support, best present (for me) that I ever gave :-) If I hadn't given it away I suspect I'd still be using it and just thinking about upgrading.

I do still buy magazines--but very selectively. Partly because, oddly, I can get some paper magazines cheaper than I can get digital subscriptions. I also just prefer flipping through some magazines than sitting down to read them digitally.

If you subscribe to several magazines, paper or digital, check out "Next Issue".

I agree paper is cheaper than digital when you subscribe at those sweepstakes type rates. Next Issue inverts that again, brings 150 magazines for $10-15/month and a lot less clutter.

Thanks. I'll check it out. Invariably I go through these cycles where I'm tempted by $5-10 subscriptions and the stuff just piles up unread especially when I travel.

> Being able to share data plans with phones at nominal cost would be one interesting upgrade driver but that's really in the hands of the carriers and is unlikely

Vodafone in the UK will let you do this (with no extra fee). They've offered me it several times, but I didn't buy an iPad with a SIM slot.

68 million devices last year is meh? It's not a big deal because everyone in the world doesn't want one? A decade ago Apple was only selling 4m-5m Macs a year. Now hundreds of millions buy Apple "computers" creating a massive ecosystem. When they only sell 5 million watches in the next 12 months, I hope we don't waste too much time with the meh's.

In business, number of units sold is not as important as number of units more sold.

It's meh because it isn't increasing in sales, not because its sales are low. If they sold 20 million last quarter, but had an constant year-over-year increase in sales, it wouldn't be considered meh.

I'm not sure I agree with this thinking either, but that's the explanation at least.

I waited in line for the iPad, and I bought two iPad 3s (because I lost one of them)....I really enjoyed the iPad, and it did feel revolutionary.

But in a twist of timing, shortly after I bought my first iPad, I also got a Macbook Air...and that was both so portable and such a delight to use that the iPad was relegated to novelty and gaming device. I barely use my iPad 3 anymore, except as a time-waster for reading websites...and it's not bad at that (in fact, I'll sometimes stow it away, as it's too tempting to just take it out and read in bed)...it's just that it doesn't fundamentally change how I interact with the world. It's simplicity was beautiful...but it ended up being too simple for me...and I'm pretty relieved that it hasn't taken over the world. There are just too many things in computing and in the general work of creation that require more than multi-touch gestures. I hope the keyboard is here to stay for a long while.

I think people have different expectations. I use my iPad for couch surfing, checking the news, reading email, Facebook, simple stuff where I do not need a computer. It's perfect for that. I don't fool myself thinking it can be used seriously.

In my opinion the problem with iPad is iOS. Not saying that iOS is bad it's just not as good enough for tablets. The iPad Air 2, for example, has a huge amount of power in it's CPU and it's not by far being used on OS level functionality like multitasking. Until Apple makes iOS more appealing and functional for tablets people will find it boring or "just another version of an iPhone/iPod with big screen". Also there are some good and cheaper Android tablets in the market. For these reasons people don't feel excited about iPad as they were before.

I owned an iPad 3 and now an Air 2 and i can say that the hardware is top notch and it still continues to be probably the best tablet of the market overall. I also use an Android Phone. :)

I agree, but I also think this falls into the category of "good problems to have". The unfortunate reality is that all software has the tendency to accumulate "features" like a katamari. Apple knows this, and so I think they are being deliberately slow about introducing new features to iOS. Remember how long it took to get copy/paste? The introduction of extensions, notification center widgets, custom keyboards, etc. in iOS 8 shows that Apple knows they still are light on features and are willing to add them, even if the pace of addition is glacial...

I was just discussing this with someone the other night. I got the first iPad and for the first 2 years, I was a junkie for new apps. Little pieces of software that specialize in 1 thing? GREAT!

Nowdays though, even with the newest iPad, I barely use it for anything beyond browsing, video, and books. I know they keep pushing it to be a tool, but when I want to do real work, I go to my computer.

It's good for light gaming, I play driving games all the time on it, but I would never bother with driving games on my PC.

It's good for light computing, I see my husband on the couch with his iPad air all the time writing emails, reading the news, browsing Youtube etc. Yes he can do that in front of his computer, but the couch is much more comfy.

I got an iPad soon after they were released. I never really used it much, and for a few years I pretty much ignored the tablet scene.

Then I took a long overseas holiday. It was great having something bigger than my phone, but easier to transport than my laptop. I soon bought the new iPad Mini, and I've combined it with a Wacom Creative Stylus 2. Now I can draw and take notes on my iPad. It's really changed the way I work.

I would suspect market saturation has been reached though. Also there are few new features that would compel an upgrade. That's been true of a lot of tech though - my laptop is three years old and I don't intend to replace it this year.

"Meh!"? Really?

Apple has a product portfolio. I agree iPhones are doing much better right now in terms of growth, but I have no doubt that the completeness of their portfolio (from macs to ipads to iphones) is what keeps sales for all product categories going just a bit more.

I bought an ipad first, and then bought a macbook. The next phone I buy might be an iPhone - which I never would have, if I had not bought the iPad.

And amongst tablets, I don't understand which other tablet is better than an iPad.

For a category defining product that still sells millions of units per year, I think calling it "Meh" is just passing an opinion for journalism.

iPads are still massive for music production. Having a standalone piece of hardware that can act as multiple synths & effects, a vocoder, even a DAW, at an acceptable latency, is a huge boon.

I wonder what the sales numbers look like if isolated solely to commercial/education/government purchases. The small business I work for is one of a number in the area that has transitioned to an iPad solution (Square stand) for all our POS needs in the last year, and there are a lot of other business use cases where tablets make far more sense than the alternatives, much more so than for people at home.

There is definetely some truth to the article that the IPad does not really serve any very useful purpose. I have 3 IPads lying around at home, so I just made a "family calendar" web application for IPad and put it up on the wall. The app shows the weather forecast, today's events from the Google family calendar, a notice board, and also serves as light switch for Phillips Hue scenes.

You can only be avant-garde for so long before you're just garde. But it's still a fine tablet, and the iPad really opened up the tablet market for the first time.

Doesn't even need an article.

Year 1: Apple fans buy it because they always buy everything apple sells.

Year 2: Some other rich people buy it, because they were shown it by apple fans.

Year 3: People buy it because other tablets aren't as mature; people start realising that doing normal day to day tasks on a tablet sucks.

Year 4: "Everyone has one", while at the same time most are actually shoved into cupboards or buried under desk clutter.

Year 5: People have realised tablets are impractical. For serious tasks, a computer is better, while for portability, a phone is better. Sales are now driven by replacement with new models and the 2nd world consumers buying their first, while most ipads are sitting in a cupboard or on a shelf somewhere.

Or they're sitting on the table in their living room and they still work perfectly fine on a daily basis. Personally I carry both my computer and a full-size tablet (though sometimes just an e-reader) and a phone when I travel on business. OTOH, I just take the tablet and phone on vacation. Each has their uses even if the tablet is the least necessary of the three.

The vast majority of the app i'm now developping for the ipad are professional ones. I think the pro market still has a huge growth potential.

The price points don't allow most of their customers to purchase the new versions so quickly.

iPad and iPhone were once pretty different. But with iPad mini and iPhone biggy, they're all but the same product line now.

I'm almost certain that Apple knew a big iPhone might cannibalize some sales of the iPad mini.

I think most people don't have the need to push their iPad particularly hard and so hardware as old as the iPad 2 is probably good enough.

Myself, I upgraded from 'The New Ipad' (whatever number that one was) to the latest iPad Air 2 for the massive performance boost. I'm a software developer and use my iPad for the Omni tools (OmniPlan, OmniFocus, OmniGraffle) and also for Keynote. My older iPad was having trouble switching apps because of its limited RAM.

BTW, if you're thinking about getting the Omni tools be prepared to spend some money. They work best when you have them on all three devices - laptop/desktop, iPad, and iPhone. Each has a different UI devoted to that platform and somewhat different functionality.

Sometimes when I fly I don't even break out my laptop. I instead do planning on my iPad using my logitech bluetooth keyboard.

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