Daring Fireball: Apple Netbook Claim Chowder
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Was that a netbook? Not quite, but I really wish Apple would bring it back.
Netbooks are clearly popular, so it seems unlikely that apple simply isn't interested in the market. The question is "can apple create a netbook that's differeniated enough from the rest of the pack that they can get the margins they want on it." The fact that one doesn't seem to be in development yet suggests the answer is 'no', but they may just be focusing their resources elsewhere.
How do you know?
(note no one is saying they aren't, just that they don't "seem" to be)
But I would have to agree that it at least seems not very plausible to me that Apple is, at the moment, developing anything that would be recognisable as a Netbook. Hopefully not, because Netbooks may be cheap but they sure are ugly.
I reach for my iPhone (and it's not a long reach, since it's always in my pocket) for >80% of the things for which I used to reach for my MacBook. I have essentially zero desire for a netbook because of it. (Yes, yes, I know that's not the case for everyone. But I can't imagine a usage in my life where either my iPhone or my MacBook isn't a far better fit than a netbook.)
A netbook or tablet+bluetooth keyboard OTOH would be a little more handy for that. Not saying it would be enough for me to buy one, just an observation.
So you can install any software you want on it?
The fact is, I can install a large number of applications on my iPhone, the device is readily available, and has a great web experience.
The point of a netbook in the first place is to be able to access the web, and be able to quickly get at the web - not to be able to install all applications.
I think it's clear that Apple isn't going to run OS X on a device targeted for the netbook buyers. That leaves them with either the iPhone OS, or a completely new OS. The iPhone OS already uses ARM chips, a new OS would give them the choice between x86 and ARM. One obvious choice would the new Cortex A9 (http://www.arm.com/news/25922.html) processors. The ultra-low power variant is already as fast as the Atom CPU's, the higher power variants are much faster, and you can basically put as many of those cores on a chip as you want. Until now such power has not been available to ARM-based devices, so it might be that Apple even has a complete device ready, but was just waiting for enough speed to put in it.
Using this speedy processor and their customized OS, Apple can put something on the market others can't: an intuitive, speedy system that is designed to run on a small footprint. That might be something people are willing to pay a premium for.
Since netbooks don't really need to do much vector processing or too much FP stuff in general, a RISC-ier ISA is a totally acceptable alternative. A preferable one, should applications be easily portable to it. (That's key. We don't want yet ANOTHER OS X.)
The post is basically a bunch of quotes about Apple a netbooks. Some saying they should have one because an Apple netbook would be cool (it probably would be), some saying not having a netbook is hurting Apple (they seem to be doing just fine), some making shoddy predictions about slumping sales, and some saying Apple is a missing an opportunity (maybe they are).
And Gruber's conclusion appears to be that had Apple had a netbook they'd be losing money. How does one reach that conclusion? Presumably, he means that netbook sales would cannibalize high end laptop sales. But that's doubtful. Most people who buy a netbook either have a high end laptop as well (like me -- I have a Macbook, a Sony VAIO, and an Asus EeePC) or were never going to buy a high end laptop in the first place.
So... you can debate the merits or necessity of Apple adding a netbook all you want, but claiming that adding a netbook would have caused Apple to _lose_ money is just silly.
That said, Gruber appears to be a Yankees fan, so he can't be all bad...
Indeed, remember when Michael Dell famously said Apple should just give up on the hardware business, a few years ago? Well, Apple now has enough cash on hand to buy Dell flat out. That’s a pretty impressive turnaround in about a decade.
But isn't that exactly what's happening to all the PC manufacturers? Netbooks are growing at a stunning clip -- but when you subtract them from laptop sales, it looks an awful lot like their growth is coming at the direct expense of conventional laptop sales.
Netbooks account for a little over 20% of all PC sales now. The PC industry has not grown 20% over the same time period. Either netbooks are cannibalizing higher end/margin sales or they are masking what would have been a huge drop in PC sales over the last 2-3 years.
I think one of the biggest problems with trying to makeup margins with higher volume is that support costs don't scale that well. It costs the OEM basically the same amount of money to offer telephone support and warranty service to a $400 machine as it does a $2k machine. So they make less money per machine and, because they sell more machines, it costs more to support them.
In order to compete with other netbooks, a hypothetical Apple netbook would necessarily be the least expensive Mac. This would definitely cannibalize their sale of better models to first-time customers, who currently constitute a significant portion of Apple's Mac sales (as much as 50% from their retail stores).
It comes down to a question which set of customers is going to be more profitable: customers looking for "a cheap laptop" or customers looking for "an Apple computer". All else being equal, I think it's obvious that the latter is more desirable. The mistake that many in the press have made is assuming that these customers are in short supply and that Apple will begin struggling to find them Real Soon Now, but this hasn't turned out to be the case. There may be more of the former kind, but would Apple really be able to capture two, three, four times as many of them as they are their current customers?
Apple has 10% marketshare. If they put out smaller, lower cost system, it's unlikely that the losses from existing mac users switching to a lower cost system would outweight the gains of people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one.
> people wouldn't stop buying normal apple laptops ... people who would buy a decent mac netbook over a crappy windows one.
Do you have any evidence for any of this, or is this pure conjecture?
and it seems to me that articles like this are occasionally warranted, because the attitude in the tech press about apple has always been 'wow, this company totally doesn't act like microsoft! clearly, they need to act more like microsoft' for decades, to the point where it's infuriating.
I have to admit though it's fun to watch analysts' perennial struggle to understand what makes a user-experience driven company work. Even after Apple almost kicked the bucket following all that analyst advice in the 90s, there is always this contingent that somehow thinks Apple should be Dell + Microsoft.
I have two macs and just ordered a third, but Gruber is a fanboy. (An intelligent one, but a fanboy all the same.)
I'm considering getting an Asus netbook within the next 6 months should I hear no word of an Apple version. I'd rather run a lean OSX than Linux, but I'd be fine with Linux if it meant I'd have a portable full-sized keyboard with nice i/o options and a big-ish screen.
Perhaps the plastic Macbooks would compete with an Apple netbook, but it's hard to believe that a significant number of people who already own a Mac and people who wouldn't considering buying a Mac wouldn't purchase a netbook.
Correlation != causation, Gruber.
Unreasoned speculation and a small assortment of media articles do not a convincing argument make.
No, he doesn't.