In all these discussions of Bitcoin's price over N months, I don't see anyone consider this: 2 years is 44% of its tradable life (first trades on Mt. Gox were in July 2010). You might as well talk about Apple's performance since 2000, which is 44% of its tradable life. In which case, you see similar returns (almost 3000%)

So if Bitcoin goes down to $30, that's an amazing investment, right? After all, that's a 500% ROI!