Elon Musk donates $10M to keep AI beneficial
futureoflife.org
futureoflife.org
-- Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies[1]
A lot of people in this thread seem to be falling into the same attractor. They see that Musk is worried about a superintelligent AI destroying humanity. To them, this seems preposterous. So they come up with an objection. "Superhuman AI is impossible." "Any AI smarter than us will be more moral than us." "We can keep it in an air-gapped simulated environment." etc. They are so sure about these barriers that they think $10 million spent on AI safety is a waste.
It turns out that some very smart people have put a lot of thought into these problems, and they are still quite worried about superintelligence as an existential risk. If you want to really dig into the arguments for and against AI disaster (and discussion of how to control a superintelligence), I strongly recommend Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. It puts the comments here to shame.
1. http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-N...
If immaterial matter could turn into conscious beings like us how can anyone claim that we are the last step in that evolution.
Perhaps there might simply be fundamental physical constraints which limit intelligence? Still seems that something much faster and bigger than a human brain would be possible, though.
Maybe by containment? If it's possible to keep the super intelligent AI in a virtual environment, but it can't detect that it's virtual.
I guess a problem with containment is that unless it's mathematically proven to be impervious, the super intelligent AI could have figured out that it's being contained and started to learn about the real world and how to manipulate it, while the humans outside still think they're safe.
The biggest issue is ensuring that everything we care about gets encapsulated as a value of the AI. If not, we wind up with things like "set off a bomb in the basement to more efficiently get people out of a burning building."
Yes: give it inherent values.
>I guess a problem with containment is that unless it's mathematically proven to be impervious,
AGI, when it eventually exists, must run according to the basic laws of learning. If you don't give it evidence that's more likely in possible-worlds with an external world than without one, it won't posit an external world.
Stopping that information leak isn't that hard, provided you have full control over the agent-environment surface in the first place. It does, however, make your "agent" completely useless for anything beyond playing Atari games.
He never argued that containment isn't possible, just that it's incredibly dangerous. In fact, in Superintelligence, he uses the term Oracle as a means of referring to a contained or "boxed" superintelligent AGI.
Just because the risks of constructing an Oracle or Oracles are extremely high, it doesn't mean we should refrain from doing so. In fact, it's more safe than the alternatives: a Genie or Sovereign; superintelligences that are entirely uncontained, the latter of which operating in a hands-off fashion in accordance with its goal/value system.
Given the current, seemingly intractable nature of the superintelligence control problem, one possible method in which we may accomplish safe, superintelligent AGI is to first operate many variations of potentially unsafe "Oracles" and interrogate them for information that may further our research into AGI safety, or perhaps even solve the issue entirely.
Generally speaking you shouldn't trust an Oracle, but if you have many radically different designs operating in containment that are oblivious to each other, the commonality in their output when posed such questions may assist in our realization of safe AGI that can operate in an uncontained fashion.
The method wasn't made public, as far as I know, and it might all be a hoax, but it's something to think about - how do you trap and imprison something smarter than you?
Jails seem to have this figured out just fine.
Still, the idea that AI is suddenly X smarter than people is ridiculously naive. Intelligence does not fit on a linear scale. And being smarter does not change the correct answer.
Can I keep an intelegent AI in a box. Shure, unplug it.
Can I keep all AI's in a box well no.
PS: Lot's of dumb things are said about AI's. Sadly, people tend to think in terms of Science fiction as Magic but in The Future. And then picture AI's as the ultimate wizards able to reshape reality to their whim. Reolistically the first true AI may find programming boring and so much for the singularity. If AI smarter than you is a bad idea it's unlikely for a progression of AI to keep building ever more intelegent replacements.
> intelegent
> Shure
> Reolistically
Spell checker broken?
Anyway, you're going to have to develop your AI somewhere, you're going to have to move it to the box somehow you're going to have to train it somehow and you're going to have to have it interact with the real world somehow. All of those are opportunities for escape, I think 'unplug it' sort of defeats the purpose of having an AI.
And the main reason for developing AIs is to do things in the real world. So, unlike a prisoner in jail, the AI might be advising the government or helping scientific research, which would provide many opportunities for subtle manipulation, even while it is imprisoned
If you can make an AI that's 100x smarter than you are, surely you can make one that's only 2x or 3x smarter. Why not start with the latter? If the experiment turns out well, then you can use the 2x/3x smarter AI to guard a 10x smarter AI, and so on.
> And the main reason for developing AIs is to do things in the real world. So, unlike a prisoner in jail, the AI might be advising the government or helping scientific research, which would provide many opportunities for subtle manipulation, even while it is imprisoned
Most of the time, it is much harder to come up with solutions to a problem than to verify that the solutions are correct. If you consider NP problems, for instance, we can use the AI to find good solutions heuristically and we can prove the correctness of their solutions with a trivial algorithm. That would still be very useful, but there wouldn't be any room for foul play.
How do you quantify human intelligence like that anyway? We are very similar to proposed AI/machine learning techniques in that we form predictive models from observation, but how can that really be measured?
With what resources? The AI is in a box, remember: we are running it on a machine with only so much memory and processing power. There's only so much it can do within these limitations, it's not like we're giving it a spending account.
Hasn't he refused to release the transcripts for this experiment? And I think there've been subsequent runs of the experiment, with some losses as well as wins.
Edit: I see that not releasing the transcripts is part of the design of the experiment. Which seems kind of like it'd seriously hamper any kind of independent analysis of the results or the quality of the experiment.
With a real AI, you will not be able to do this: the decision will already have been made and the consequences of its release already in effect.
Besides, you would need to repeat the experiment many times to get any meaningful data.
This contrived experiment is being done in the name of research, ostensibly to arm humans with the tools we need to deal with this situation if it arises. If the AI's reasoning can't hold up to a wider analysis, then you can only conclude that it's a trick of some sort, and hopefully when the time comes we won't rely simply on the testimony of one tricked person to make such a critical decision.
I have a lot of respect for Yudkowski but it honestly baffles me that he thinks this particular exercise should be given any weight whatsoever. It's totally unscientific, relies entirely on the unsubstantiated testimony of one individual, and if he weren't the one holding the keys I have to feel like he would be highly critical of it as well.
You don't need to research a counter-example, you just produce one. He did so by exhibiting a relatively weak AI that couldn't be contained.
Well, no. He showed that a person pretending to be an AI could convince a person to let it out of the box. Sometimes.
It's not really a meaningful counterexample. Everyone involved with the event knew that the AI wasn't real and that there are zero consequences for letting it out. You'd have to concoct a much more involved test as a decent counterexample.
We're also assuming that an AI that can "modify its own source code" is going to do significantly better as a result, but that's not obviously true. If you had full access to every single neuron in your brain, you would have a lot of trouble figuring out how it works, much less how to improve it. Human-level AI would likely run into the same problem: the complexity of its code is greater than what it is capable of understanding. As for an AI that's a thousand smarter than a human, well, it's a thousand times more complex, still over the threshold.
I'm not saying that they wouldn't eventually figure out some improvements, but I suspect that it would end up being more trouble than it's worth. I think the evolution of intelligence is in fact the evolution of intelligence-producing algorithms. Any such algorithm eventually gets stuck in a local maximum, at which point greater intelligence requires restarting from scratch.
Not everyone will make high-cognitive-ability software that follows your clock rate rules. (And I think this is a good thing.)
It's a peculiarity of humans that we can't trade off time for IQ. Do not assume an AI would be similarly limited.
For example, we may desire to first study AGI by restricting it to levels of intelligence slightly below that of a human. To accomplish this, we may employ various stunting and/or tripwire methods to ensure the AGI develops within our parameters.
I believe they intend to fund positive research so that researchers do not resort to projects that do not provide net good, for example, in fields like weaponry.
Not that safely developing hyperintelligent AI isn't an interesting topic. But I don't think AI research is anywhere close to that stage, considering that programmers largely still have to hard-code any actions that an agent can perform.
They did this in a Star Trek TNG episode ("Ship in a Bottle"). Data accidentally endows a holodeck character with super-intelligence. The way the crew eventually defeated him was to trick him into thinking he had left the holodeck and was able to live normally in the outside world; but it was really just another virtual environment.
God, I'm such a nerd. :P
We want something that thinks enough like a human to understand and appreciate our goals, but enough different from a human to not suffer our faults. And in asking for this, we already suppose the existence of an AI that fundamentally disagrees with how humans make decisions.
This is the 'better morality' problem. If I say "I'm more moral than you", I have to do so by showing that _your_ morality is contradictory with _your _ actions; that you are a hypocrite. Otherwise, we will disagree on some course of action, and you will have no reason to believe your decisions are incorrect except by _assuming_ that I am more moral, which is what we are trying to establish.
So we really want a computer that can point out our errors and suggest corrections. This is one (vague) foundation for artificial intelligence that doesn't easily permit 'evil geniuses' since, so long as this is what the computer is doing, it cannot be said to be dangerous.
Overall, I find AI discussion to be incredibly primitive and naive. It's practically a religious debate except among a very very few. Most people are not very creative about addressing these kinds of issues, and it's depressing that people are tied up in so thoroughly in bad terminology and non-issues.
Ants don't need to understand anything but ants. Surely a super powerful AI could understand ants as well. Otherwise, what's the point of calling it a 'general' intelligence?
Super intelligence does not mean omniscience there will always need to be a focus and thus a prioritization it's when it comes to prioritization that the problems start to arise at what point is it not important anymore to care for the ants cause they aren't part of the priorities.
You cant safeguard against that when a system can reprogram itself on the fly.
Should I have been designed to serve ants, I would pay a great deal of attention to them, and I would take great care to avoid stepping on them. Because if I didn't, I would be a bad design, and I wouldn't have lived this long.
Either way, it seems you are missing MY original point: an AI is not moral if it cannot verify it's morality to YOU. So you will shut it down if it gets too powerful to communicate its good ideas with you, because then it will be indistinguishable from broken.
Thats where you are going wrong in this. You are assuming a control there is no way you can ensure we have. Even with dumb systems that do exactly as we say they don't always do exactly as we say.
You are portraying a misconception about control of systems that there is absolutely no basis for, why I don't know.
That's what I'm saying: it necessarily won't. It has to prove its morals are better than yours.
>you are still assuming you can control something that can program itself.
Who said it can program itself? Why would I assume that? Obviously, it is not a requirement for AI because we don't have that capability, yet we are intelligent.
You are assigning capabilities to a hypothetical machine with no rhyme or reason. The next time you see a machine that can't be turned off, you be sure to let someone know about it.
I guess I'll repeat my point again:
We will not be able to build intelligent computers by removing ourselves from the process of designing intelligent computers. That would eliminate our ability to verify their intelligence, and thus make them not intelligent. We have no use for such a thing, so why would we build it? Why would a computer that _we designed to require our verification_ ignore our verification and build something that complex and contradictory to its own goals on purpose?
There is a lot of confusion about how an AI would have to work. People make assumptions about how they can self-improve, which I think are idealistic. There is little reason to believe a super intelligence can solve every problem, and if we are actually communicating with it, we should be able to tell which problems it can solve and which ones it can't. I mean, that's the whole point of building such a thing! That's _why_ we want to build it! So to say "it can solve problems we can't foresee and use that against us" is like saying we are building machines for some purpose and then never using them for that purpose.
Nobody is going to build a super intelligence and then not monitor it. We build it _too_ monitor it. We want to know _why_ it is making the decisions it does, and it has to answer in a way that is acceptable to us, or else we will just redesign it -- because it isn't doing what it was designed to do.
I mean, imagine you hired super-human genius to work for you. Yes, at some point, you're just trusting her not run your enterprise into the ground. But you wouldn't have hired her unless she had demonstrated a strong interest in helping you, and you wouldn't keep her on if she isn't actively helping.
It also seems that there was a not-very-advertised AI conference in January, with pretty much everyone in the AI-risk scene attending, most of MIRI staff and Elon Musk included.
This news sounds like "donating to keep software bug-free". If someone wants or even accidentally, they can create buggy code or "evil" AI.
Similarly, there are technical research questions related to how to design an intelligent agent that is "controllable", in that it acts to achieve its given goals but not to such an extent that it would resist being switched off or reprogrammed with new goals. Making progress on answering these questions doesn't guarantee that any given developer will use whatever techniques are discovered. But insofar as pretty much everyone, even evil masterminds, wants to maintain control over their AIs, the availability of techniques for 'safe' AI will at least decrease the likelihood that a powerful AI is built without any safeguards.
Here's what I mean; I'm not suggesting that AI has, or will have, some innate set of "rights". Nor am I suggesting that anyone is wrong for wanting to fund and research "AI Safety". It's just the first thing that came to mind while reading that post, as it spoke about need to steer, control, and regulate AI so that it's beneficial for "us" ... already setting up an "us" vs "them" dynamic.
Anyways, just thought it was an interesting juxtaposition to mention ... thoughts?
Much like parenting, I think it should be done because there's another kind of mind to be had, regardless of the exact outcome (which we shouldn't necessarily try to fully control).
Of course, this isn't a HUGE danger, I'm just saying that it's a risk to having children. (This isn't counting things like mothers dying from childbirth, which still also happens.)
My point wasn't that we should expect it to happen, but rather, neurotically making sure a child never could (or attempting to) rather than just having a child, raising it, and hoping for the best is bad parenting.
As a secondary point: it's only humans that don't expect to be regularly murdered by their children; in other species, such an act is a routine occurrence. There's no particular reason to think that we're a super-special species in the grand scheme of things, and it's entirely possible that doing something like siring an artificial species better than us would end in our deaths. That doesn't, by default, make it not worth doing.
Few would argue that, in raising a child, acting on the child's behalf and shaping their learning is an inappropriate arrogation of control. On the other hand, never relinquishing when it becomes clear the child is independent would be.
If that child goes on to be superior in intellect, in capability, etc, that child's opinions and values are likely going to be a direct reflection of the parents', or so one hopes. Sure, it's no guarantee, but is there a better approach?
When commenters talk about "trapping" or "imprisoning" a rogue AI, I feel like we've already missed the point. And yeah, such talk does have echoes of sins of the past.
I think it's also relevant to ask what our expectations of the AI would be, and how much of a burden it places on the AI. If you're thinking you need to "capture" an AI that's trying to escape so it can continue "working" for you... that sounds like you're doing something terribly wrong.
On the other hand, continuing the parenting analogy, if what you're asking for amounts to a trivial favor, or some occasional assistance with a burden, that doesn't seem at all unfair.
"Bobby, could you come over this afternoon and unconfuse our legislative body? It's all gummed up and going nowhere."
Maximizing the societal benefits of AI, at least in the context of superintelligence, is a very slippery slope.
For sure, it beats a myraid of malignant failure and perverse instantiation scenarios, where humanity becomes extinct (or worse).
However, I believe that if we do somehow manage to solve the seemingly intractable AGI control problem and create an entirely safe superintelligence that is loyal to our every whim, an entirely new ethical challenge will arise.
For example, let us assume this has been accomplished, and humanity now has a friendly superintelligence that has established itself as a global singleton (i.e. it's incredibly powerful, and nothing terrestrial can supplant it).
Humans instruct it to solve the problem of death and disease. It does so.
Humans instruct it to solve the problem of crime. It does so.
Humans instruct it to solve the problem of war. It does so.
Humans instruct it to solve the problem of poverty. It does so.
Humans instruct it to explore the universe and solve the most vexing existential questions. It does so.
In that scenario, the entire worldwide medical, law enforcement, and military professions just ceased to exist. Altruism no longer has much of a place; poverty and disease no longer exist. Overnight, death became a thing of the past. Humanity no longer ponders why it exists or how the universe works, because such questions have already been pondered by the AI to whatever possible maxima.
That example is incomplete for the sake of brevity, but it's easy to imagine such a scenario resulting in all of our problems being solved for us. Which then begs the question, what would become of our humanity when there is no longer struggle or suffering?
Post-scarcity economics, as well as literature or philosophy that concerns itself with the perils of utopia may offer some insight into this question, but I believe the topic deserves a more in-depth investigation specifically within the context of superintelligence.
For my two cents, I'm starting to believe that any superintelligence we construct that establishes itself as a global singleton should have an extremely finite set of goals, perhaps even a singular goal, where it henceforth restricts any other forms of AGI from existing.
While it may be tempting to also have this entity protect us against other forms of existential risk, or perhaps fix some of the truly awful suffering in the world, doing so would still remain a very slippery slope.
It would weight human happiness as more important and work to avoid the pitfalls that would be undesirable.
There's more utility for it in the human population being happy/not giving up on life then most of the things it would do (assuming it's primary goal is to further and safeguard the human race).
There would be aspects of society it COULD run, but feel that giving us purpose would be more beneficial then the increase in productivity or whatever of it running that aspect of society.
Maybe it can make beautiful gardens and art, but instead leaves it to the humans to give them some sort of purpose.
I don't see how or why a post-scarcity society would do away with art/culture/many of the subjective things that make life worth living and provide purpose.
Most people don't quit doing the things they like just because someone is better at it.
My two cents.
A friendly Sovereign superintelligence (i.e. operating under its own goal/value-directed volition) would probably not rob us of purpose, though the societal changes in either scenario would likely still be quite profound.
Of course, a positive superintelligence outcome would be a miracle in and of itself, so there's that. Coming to terms with a newly created utopian society sure beats extinction.
My concern was more what would happen on a societal scale, what would become of humanity as it was known.
- Tesla - 28M shares @ $193 = $5.4B
- Solar City - 20M shares @ $51 - $1.0B
- SpaceX - Still private, but some wild assumptions that Elon owns ~33% at a valuation of 4x total funding - $350M
So his net worth is somewhere near (and probably north of) $7 Billion. If his wife takes half, he'll still be able to donate plenty to AI research.
Those laws are the requirements document - the $10mm is for the implementation.
I mean, realistically, AI safety is not going to be achieved with a list of written laws. Heck, the way it's going, we wouldn't know how to enforce such a list at all: first we would need the AI to understand human languages, and then we would need the AI to care, that is to say, robots would need to know and follow the second law before you can tell them about it.
I believe that it is possible to create intelligent machines, and that those machines will challenge our perception of what it means 'to be'.
I don't necessarily agree with the implicit assumption that when that time comes, that a thing of superior intellect is obviously going to be 'evil' towards things of lesser intellect. Unless we are actually making a statement extrapolated from our own experience of how we perceive our relation to other life-forms on this planet.
The idea that I've often seen people mention, is the idea of a "paperclip optimizer", in which an AI superintelligence primarily optimizes for there being more paperclips, not taking into account side effects of this, which other people might find harmful. If I understand the idea correctly, which I very well might not, it is meant to suggest that if an AI superintelligence is created with a particular goal in mind, we would do well to be very careful when choosing the AI's goals.
It would I suppose be essentially a similar problem to that of a "literal genie". (Except harsher, because the AI would go through steps to accomplish the task, instead of just magically making the task so, and therefore would have more side effects?)
So any discussion about AI gone wrong is really a discussion about malware and other kinds of software which are used by people to do bad things. If my software runs a power plant for an evil facility (full of sharks with lasers), is it evil software? The evilness of the software is parasitic on the intent of its operators.
But if the issue is software that goes badly wrong in unexpected ways, we are really just talking about software engineering again, segfaults and Ariane 5 and how to handle user passwords.
Obviously if we plan to outsource big tasks to chaotic software that we have trustingly given power over, let's say, all the cruise missiles, that is less of a scary emergent singularity scenario and more a plain-old-stupid scenario.
EDIT - Saying I disagree that AI is a foregone conclusion on Hacker News is probably a bit trollish... Unfortunately I'm not smart enough to condense an explanation to this comment box— but my disagreement stems from philosophers such as Hubert Dreyfuss (What Computers Can't Do) who are working off of Heidegger and phenomenology.
EDIT 2 - I know how douchey it is to namedrop Heidegger, but I really believe in this case it's necessary ...
And that's the crux of the question isn't it? How do we determine if the intelligence is recreated or merely mimicked? Does such a distinction matter? Searle says yes. More here if you're interested: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-room/
With such setup (require infinite memory) the system is Turing-complete of course.
If it works as you described it can't even answer "what was my n-th last question".
You can't prove that. For all possible experiments that can be performed we can construct system that will be indistinguishable from entity we accept as understanding Chinese.
If you got atom-by-atom description of human brain without knowing beforehand what it is you wouldn't be able to reason that this brain understands Chinese, so why do you think you can judge other systems?
> they don't evoke feelings, memories, images in the person in the room,
We were speaking about understanding, not emotions, memories etc. Yes you can define "understanding" = being like me, but it's not fair definition, and would exclude a lot of people.
And then of course you can't proove that there are no emotions and memories. They can be simulated by system as well. Even if you wanted lookup table - you would need to include writable memory so the system can rembmber previous questions when asked about them, at that point the system is self-modifiable and can be thought of as having memories and emotions.
> there is no analysis, no agreement or disagreement with what is being said
How do you know there's no analysis? If the system is complex enough you can't know what it does internaly. Or show me theory of consiousnes that can distinguish systems that can understand Chinese and can't basing on the specification of the system.
Briefly (as far as I understand), a lot of philosophical thought has been dedicated to computability, not enough to computational complexity, i.e., the resources needed for computation. A naive "lookup table" implementation of the Chinese room simply wouldn't fit in the Universe. You'd need to throw in a great amount of compression, and then you get something that could possibly be considered "intelligent" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize)
Just like the individual neuron in your brain do not understand Chinese so does the person in the room not understand it either. The entire house though does.
Most of the hard problem of consciousness arguments are silly and amount to little more than “a computer has no soul.”
From the linked article on the Stanford site:
> Searle imagines himself alone in a room following a computer program for responding to Chinese characters slipped under the door. Searle understands nothing of Chinese, and yet, by following the program for manipulating symbols and numerals just as a computer does, he produces appropriate strings of Chinese characters that fool those outside into thinking there is a Chinese speaker in the room.
[Emphasis added.]
Unless those outside are satisfied with a very rudimentary back-and-forth, such a program would have to be amazingly complicated (and those outside very patient, or the operator superhumanly fast). It's not just a question of "look up input Chinese character and return corresponding output character" -- which is never explicitly stated, but which we're subconsciously led to by the image of a human "following the program for manipulating symbols and numerals".
Dennett gives an example where the outside person tells a joke, and asks the room's operator to explain it. You could also imagine a reading comprehension exercise, with questions ranging from purely structural ("What is the third word on the fifth line?") through semantic ("What colour was the girl's dress?") to analytical ("Why do you think the boy was sad?") Questions can be self-referential, or depend on previous questions (and their answers) or on a vast mass of knowledge we take for granted (a dress the colour of snow is white; a small boy might cry if his kite gets stuck in a tree).
It doesn't seem so intuitive that a system that complex lacks anything we might legitimately describe as "understanding".
That's where I would disagree. But I'm not fit to give a full explanation here— thinkers such as Hubert Dreyfuss (What Computers Can't Do) do a much better job of explaining the critique (Dreyfuss is working off of Heidegger and other phenomenalist) .
>>Why wouldn't there be any possibility of making artificial humans? We are just a manifestation of a physical system of bonds between organic molecules that follow the laws of physics. There's nothing inherently preventing us from recreating that.
Obviously, such a summary vastly oversimplifies the problem. It is easy to look at how far we've come and think that we must be close to the goal, but it's a bit presumptuous to think that we are near to making a strong general AI.
But I don't think they're presuming that. They're simply saying that it's possible in principle. How long it takes, and whether indeed we ever manage it all, are separate questions.
In principle, everything is possible, but some things are so unlikely, that it is reasonable to label them as impossible.
The computer technology we have developed over the last 75 years is so fundamentally different from how our minds work that to think we will develop anything resembling our own intelligence in any reasonable time-frame is insane.
That doesn't mean we can't develop a machine that is able to reason for itself and solve discrete problems. We can. That's not what AI is. AI is Artificial Intelligence. An artificial intelligence defined by us.
There are some things which I think it's reasonable to consider impossible in principle: e.g., FTL travel, time-travel into the past. (That's not to say it would be necessarily unreasonable to hold the opposite view).
I don't see impossibility there, just impracticability (why create mechanic horse if we can just create car).
And if you believe that something as complex as the brain came through evolution but life started out as immaterial matter then I find it hard to understand why you don't think this can be recreated?
Thinking isn't that hard of a nut to crack, imho. Enough of a ruleset/branch logic is thinking. We don't need to emulate a person perfectly, the same way we don't have self-driving cars losing their tempers or tailgating people out of spite. We just need to distill the intelligence we want and voila, you have AI.
AI isn't just a HAL-like character. Its a lot of things. In fact, it surrounds us. There's expert systems, fuzzy logic, etc controlling pretty much the entirety of our technological lives. I have no idea what drugs Musk is on, but its dangerous for him to piss on AI publically. I imagine, from a practical pov, spreading FUD about AI makes sense for him economically. For someone who wants human spaceflight, talking down about robots and AI is a means to an end. Now the public doesn't want a cheap-ish robot mission on Mars with some guy in Houston wearing an Oculus-like headset. Or autonomous robots on the moon. They want a meatbag on the surface, for their own emotional and philosophical needs, price be dammed. "Price be damned" in spaceflight makes Musk a very happy camper, considering he's going to get a lion's share of that money.
There's something really neo-luddite about human spaceflight. Its like we can't admit to ourselves that machines, AI, etc just are a better fit for it. Anyone else notice that about three months ago there's been endless anti-AI sentiment in the press? Where is this stuff coming from? Who is funding it? I really think Musk and others see it as a major threat to their companies and social capital and are trying to change the narrative to suit them and their goals. I don't think we typically appreciate how one wealthy person or organization can easily astroturf the web and the press.
Personally, I think the more feasible futurist path is actually taking the environment seriously, pushing the path to peace politically, trying to bring in a post-scarcity world via cheap replication, and using AI the same way we use all tools -- for our benefit. Fleeing to some other planet or moon without fixing life on Earth first guarantees we bring our terrible politics and baggage to this new destination. Let's fix things here first and then worry about moving to Mars. "Fixing things" more than likely involves strong AI implementations in various parts of our lives.
We're already in this black box hypothetical. I don't think its such a big change. I mean, can you audit the code in google's self-driving car? Who can?
Musk and others are concerned about very different things than "we'll accidentally use AI wrong." And they're not concerned about the AI we already have, and they're certainly not "pessimistic" about whether AI technology will advance.
The concern is that we'll develop a very, very smart general artificial intelligence.
The concern is that it'd be smart enough that it can learn how to manipulate us better than we ourselves can. Smart enough that it can research new technologies better than we can. Smart enough to outclass not only humans, but human civilization as a whole, in every way.
And what would the terminal goals of that AI be? Those are determined by the programmer. Let's say someone created a general AI for the harmless purpose of calculating the decimal expansion of pi.
A general, superintelligent AI with no other utility function than "calculate as many digits of pi as you can" would literally mean the end of humanity, as it harvested the world's resources to add computing power. It's vastly smarter than all of us put together, and it values the digits of pi infinitely more than it values our pleas for mercy, or our existence, or the existence of the planet.
This is quite terrifying to me.
A good intro to the subject is Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies[1]. One of the most unsettling books I've read.
[1]http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-N...
Part of his reasoning goes like this. Any super smart goal oriented entity is going to desire/construct its own preservation as a sub-goal of its main goal (even if that goal is something as mundane as making paperclips) because if it ceases to be its goal will be put into jeopardy. To that end this super smart entity will then figure out ways to disable all attempts to constrain its non-existence. A lot of conclusions can be logically reached when one posits goal directed behaviour which we can assume any super intelligent agent is going to have. He talks about `goal content integrity'.
Bostrom argues for an indirect normative[4] approach because there is no way we can program or direct something that is going to be a lot smarter than ourselves and that won't necessarily share our values and that has any degree of goal-oriented behaviour, motivation and autonomous learning. Spoiler alert: Essentially I think he argues that we have to prime it to "always do what _you_ figure out is morally best" but I could be wrong.
There are also (global) sociological recommendations because, humans have been known to fuck things up.
[1] http://www.partiallyexaminedlife.com/2015/01/06/ep108-nick-b...
[2] http://www.nickbostrom.com/
[3] http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0199678111/ref=as_li_tl?ie=...
[4] https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2012/04/21/indirect-norm...