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From Musk's AMA on reddit:

Q: Previously, you've stated that you estimate a 50% probability of success with the attempted landing on the automated spaceport drone ship tomorrow. Can you discuss the factors that were considered to make that estimation?

A: I pretty much made that up. I have no idea :)

Fantastic! Give the man a fag packet to write on the back of and we'll see what he comes up with next!!

To be honest, 50% probability is the definition of "I have no idea" ;).

They've shown they can land on a fixed pad with their rockets. I think the critical factor will be what the wave action will be like. If the barge comes up at the exact time one of the landing legs is coming down -- things could go badly.

Yep.

Yes!