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On the contrary, I don't think Flash/Air will ever be on the iPhone.

They have the upper hand over the whole situation and have invested a lot in Flash alternatives including HTML5 (via WebKit) and video with MP4. In addition, the battery suck will ruin the (already short) battery life, and I don't think they will compromise the user experience for Flash

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Your logic only works if (a) Flash begins to fade and (b) Apple remains far ahead of all its competitors indefinately. Because in the end every other phone is going to support Flash and Apple is going to have to explain to iPhone users why phones from Windows Mobile and Google can view the entire web while iPhone users can't.

As for alternatives like HTML 5 we're at least a decade away from widespread use of those (since there are people who wait forever to upgrade their browser). So I don't see Apple being able to stall for that long.

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