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The whole 10X thing (which sounds like some superhero myth or whatever) is much simpler then we sometimes want to believe.

The work we do is not that unique. While often it will not be identical, but will share a lot in common. We learn what worked in the past in similar situation, and apply it successfully in the future.

That's it. Bottom line, experience matters a lot.

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That being said, some people appear to be better at recognising their (or other people's) past mistakes and learn from them than others. Some people just never learn.

If experience is all that matters than the industry could be a lot better if we would not let the 40+ software developers disappear to management. Instead they should get payed better to keep them?

I've found some companies who recruit from the trenches are led from the front, meaning the management promotes people who are skilled to management positions.

Others promote the weak developers.

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