I'm not sure if we should also make comparison with the productivity of "elite writers" (even though there are best seller authors), "elite doctors", or "elite plumbers"
So, Usain Bolt has run the 100m in 9.58 seconds.
A decent time for a high school runner, according to http://www.reddit.com/comments/xu93j/hey_fittit_what_is_a_go... (admittedly an arbitrary , is around 12 seconds.
So, the difference between an amateur in high school and the best in the world is about 25%.
I bet there's a bell curve there, and Usain Bolt is WAY, WAY off on the right part of the curve.
You could argue that programming is also competitive; a business that is 10% more efficient will routinely win contracts against the opposition, better their reputation etc.
Elite developers exist as it would be ridiculous to think that talent can't be found in this field. Like learning a spoken language, some become fluent in months while others never do. And I think talent is probably at least as relevant than it is in sports. The question is merely what leverage a talented programmer can get from say a 10% or 100% advantage over the average skill or productivity? Completing tasks as an individual is one thing, being in a team is something else, and competing as a team will further increase the leverage of skill. The 10x-average developer likely does not exist. Developers that produce 2-3x the average developer are probably common. What we forget is that those don't necessarily produce business value at that rate (which they solve problems), but like I explained above: being the winning team in competition could give increased returns by thousands of percent.