No, it isn't.[1]
In the ascent phase of the bubble, everyone but uber-bulls is proven wrong. But what matters is whether what is happening today in terms of valuations and capital raising/spending is sustainable. I believe it isn't. AirBnB or Uber or what have you may be a great business, but a great business can be a lousy investment at the wrong price.
So you may continue be right, in the sense that share prices may keep going up, but that doesn't mean investors participating at these levels--or at the quadruple levels you forecast that may indeed come to pass--are being rational.
What's happening now doesn't have to be exactly like it was in 1999, just like what happened in 1999 wasn't exactly like the Nifty Fifty stock bubble of the late 1960s.
PS I had a front-row seat in 1999, as I worked for a well-known VC firm on Sand Hill (still there, still well-known).
[1] http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=240371
Most of the social companies have yet to really show they can be profitable other than being bought out. Valuations are often grossly overinflated.
AirBnB and Uber are both skirting regulations and pushing risks onto their userbase. Regulations or a few continued instances of bad PR could pop their valuation bubble in an instant.
Compare companies overinflated valuations with how much they are actually being sold for or how much they're getting through IPOs.
Factor in my girlfriend and our household is at around $20k.
If Google can charge me $10k-$15k annually to not own a car but be able to have it available all the time? What's $10k * 137,000,000? [1] At those levels, the failed Uber experiment can be a whimsical write-off. Or perhaps it's a strategic venture to handle some of these pesky regulations we're always talking about Uber fighting.
I don't want to own a car. I just want to have the freedom to be mobile at a moments notice.
To me, its clear there is a non-zero risk that both businesses could get squeezed by regulation - the investors are betting that there won't be an impact from regulation or that the cost of following the regulation will be worth it (which you'd expect if you've got the scale to follow through).
"If this person actually knew what they were talking about, they would be investing and making a fortune, not telling me about it"
It doesn't matter how smart they are, how many awards they've won, or how successful they've been in business. If they're making a public post about it, it's because they don't really know anything. If they knew, they would keep it quiet and invest.
if you think company X is going to do well, you invest in them, and then comment about how amazing it is. (That might drive up the price even more).
If you know what you are talking about, it is still in your interest to let everyone else know after you have purchased shares so that your shares will rise faster and higher.
Just because you are confident that something will go in a certain direction without telling everyone, doesn't mean you won't benefit from doing so.
As many economists like to say, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Your saying really only applies to trading algorithms.
It's worth exactly what it's trading for at any given moment, by definition!
I'd dispute Facebook's IPO was botched if you are treating it as a real business rather than a bubble stock. With a real business you may as well sell stock for what buyers will pay and if the price subsequently fluctuates then that's what stock prices do. The idea that flotations must be underpriced so you can give the impression of price growth and get more investors later is more of a Ponzi scheme way of doing things.
[1] http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/01/facebook-not-feeling-...
EDIT: upon re-reading, sounds like this is exactly what the GP was referring to.
The average investor loses in this scenario. Back in the day, retail investors could invest in the growth of companies. These days, the companies don't IPO until they've already grown to be very large. Definitely doesn't help the wealth gap
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140801044817-921366-marc-an...