What happens to your bike after it’s stolen
seattlemet.com
seattlemet.com
There would probably still be professionals stealing expensive bikes, I suppose, but still, this seems worth trying.
At that price, I really wouldn't consider 100k to investigate, prosecute and sentence a very conservative guess. Seems a bit on the high end. Stealing a bike doesn't result in jail generally (expensive). The prosecution is usually quick and easy (tons of similar cases) and the penalty is usually a fine for first-time offenders.
What you also often see in crime is the 80/20 effect. For example here in Amsterdam they created a list of 500 people who often ran into trouble with the police and focused a lot of effort on them. As each and every one of them plans and executes on an elaborate theft say once a month, they're responsible for more than 10 of such cases every single day. The other thousands of people who commit a theft might do it incidentally, like once every few years or once in their life, and usually not something elaborate.
Same with bike theft, I think. I've actually seen big vans with a team of 3 operate at night. They'll throw 15 bikes that are locked but not attached into the van in the span of 5 minutes with the 3 of em, then drive off to some garage and spend the next 5 hours relaxed cutting through the locks in comfort with the right tools. They'll switch neighborhoods every now and then, and sell 20 at a time to struggling obscure bike shops that need a bigger profit than what they can get if they buy straight from the factory.
If you have 2-3 of such teams operate in your city and do two weekly runs that's easily a million bucks, that's, you can probably get rid of them for a few hundred thousand bucks and recuperate 100k from the thieves. But you prevent a million in theft and restore a bit of social order. Of course it's not just the theft, it's also the broken-window theory stuff. The notion of escalating crime, and of affluent people moving to other places if you let this + 50 other things like this slip, and you end up with dropping rents and an imbalance of disproportionate amounts of low-socioeconomic individuals living there. Bit of a slippery slope argument I know but it's not far from the truth.
The (somewhat controversial) idea is that if you go out of your way to punish smaller crimes, people don't do the bigger ones. It wasn't cost effective for police in NYC to stop the smaller crimes (people spraying water on your windshield and asking for a dollar to wipe it off) but larger crimes dropped with it.
If you view police as a fixed cost, then perhaps it is worthwhile.
That said, there are plenty of holes in the theory.
Gary Becker writes a lot about the economics of crime too. http://chicagomaroon.com/2012/05/25/the-economics-of-crime-w...
"Bikes are one of the four commodities of the street — cash, drugs, sex, and bikes," Veysey told me. "You can virtually exchange one for another."
(From this lengthy and fascinating first-hand account of a reporter's attempt to recover his stolen bicycle)
http://www.sfbg.com/2007/02/13/chasing-my-stolen-bicycle?pag...
When I lived in New York in the mid-2000's it was pretty common to find folks trying to sell stolen bikes for $20 in public parks. Being younger with less sense and having lost a couple of bikes myself, I would sometimes get in their faces. That was a dumb idea, cf. the screwdriver anecdote in the article.
It was also an open secret that local restaurants bought stolen bikes for delivery workers and just covered them up in duct tape. I'm sure this doesn't explain 100% of bike thefts.
Maybe in Seattle chop shops are necessary, but in New York the problem seems so overwhelming that that just strikes me as a lot of unnecessary effort. The police generally could not care less.
come to think of it, stolen cars work effectively the same way. the only difference is they are tracked by so many other mechanisms (registration, plates, cameras, they are physically large enough to be difficult to hide). thieves suck.
I found it on Gumtree (like Craigslist) the next day. I stuck the phone number in Google, and a load of other Gumtree adverts popped up -- "Call Dave" "Call Pete" "Call Andy". I sent this to the police. An officer phoned a few days later, and was really pleased and surprised at what I'd been able to do. She said she'd pass it on to the "intelligence team".
Nothing seems to have changed since then: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=07796163182 (I picked one advert at random.)
I wasn't quite sure if he was just a repair guy with a small business, someone buying cheap broken bikes and fixing them up, using FB as a sales channel, or a proper thief. Until one day I saw someone comment on one of his bikes on facebook saying he went to buy a bike and that the guy had an elaborate camera and a television screen to see if the police rang the bell or just a regular buyer as well as some other negative comments.
Police didn't seem to pick up the case though, he's still at it. But yeah I always put the phone number in google, if I get a load of different names I just move on. It doesn't happen that often, but when something is too good to be true it happens like 9/10 times.
There is seldom story of say an angry man in a van running down two kids on a stolen scooter otherwise vigilante justice is very rare.
I think for most bike thiefs are just having field day (year or decade) and probably quite a bit more organized than in Seattle due to massive market for bikes and bike parts here in Copenhagen.
I believe that most Danes buy their bikes part in stores (physical or online), making the market for stolen part very small.
I understand that the police doesn't have resources to investigate every single bike theft, but perhaps if they looked at on a case by case basis and looked at the problem as a whole, then maybe the economy would be vastly different. If 100 bikes are stolen, they aren't being stolen by a 100 different people, more likely just a few people are responsible for the majority of those thefts. I worked at a company where the entire bike rack was stole at once, a truck backed up and the entire row of 30+ bikes was stolen. Because of how the system works the police will get 30 different cases of stole bike, each of which isn't worth looking into.
It's a bit different from the US, because Denmark is much much small, but if the Danish police said "The next 3 to 5 years we invest heavily in finding bikes and preventing bike theft" then you wouldn't need to do much after that, because the criminal would have moved to a different country.
The difference might be that bikes sleep outside much more often in Rotterdam than in San Francisco.
edit: typos
Then again, I'm broke too, so I'm sure that affects my decision.
My bike is fast and convenient for getting around, which makes it a reasonable alternative to other transportation methods (it's faster than traveling by car within the city limits of Chicago).
In contrast, a ~100$ bike is much slower and more expensive to maintain. Suggesting only fools ride nice bikes is short sighted.
We need to make bike theft less profitable instead of telling everyone to ride shitty, impractical bikes.
[1] in Chicago - http://www.transitchicago.com/travel_information/fares/unlim...
I'm just saying this as at times people seem to compare a $200 bike to $1500 bikes as if they're comparing a crappy $250 7 inch netbook to a Macbook Pro Retina. While in reality, it's more like comparing a $15k watch to a $50 watch, they function exactly the same, tell you the time extremely accurately, easily last years, but one is cool, scarce, luxurious, and the other functional.
I appreciate there's gonna be some difference between a $100 and a $800 bike, not saying there's none, just saying there's not that much.
In any case, I concur with the guy from Rotterdam. Bike theft is intense (for me with a decent lock it's about once a year). But my replacement cost is low. I usually spend about $100 on a bike yearly which includes all costs.
Beyond that though, we simply have a huge bike market with lots of competition here. And because everyone rides bikes, you don't have to culturally differentiate yourself with a special bike like in some places where you look like an idiot if you have a cheap bike. Here that's normal and fully accepted, like having $50 sneakers. And the great thing about a deep bike economy with relatively low-prices is cheapish insurance. It's only a few dollars per month to insure a bike worth hundreds of dollars. Percentage based it's actually not great, but you can get a really nice theft-risk-free bike including maintenance for about $15 a month in total. That's hard to beat with public transportation or a car. I wish more cities invested in their bike lanes, a bike economy is awesome. You know all those health studies about 30-60 minutes of activity per day? So many people get that on their daily routine to work, while saving a ton of cash and being environmentally conscious, while at the same time turning transportation into some kind of egalitarian phenomenon with everyone riding bikes on the same lanes, as opposed to everyone knowing poor people often take the bus, and everyone seeing the difference between who has a $1k shitty 2nd hand car and who has the $100k Tesla. I love the bike economy in this city.
Anyway, this post was written regarding the utility of a bike in a Dutch city that I'm familiar with, please let me know your side of the story in Chigago (what's the insurance costs like for your bike and what's the rate of theft, I'm most curious about)! It'll be completely different for people who race, people who buy a bike with a cultural statement about authentic craftsman bike history & culture or whatever, or people who live in cities where you can cycle straight for half a mile without making a turn or running in to a stoplight. In any of those cases an expensive bike makes a lot of sense.
I think Amsterdam here is the exception rather than the rule - most other places I've cycled have bikes on the road with cars rather than segregated tracks. Then, a faster bike makes a lot of sense, both from a safety standpoint (being able to accelerate quickly can get you out of trouble sometimes) and because you can actually hit your higher top speed, to shorten your commute.
Obviously there are diminishing returns - going from a $150 bike to a $300 bike is a big upgrade, and going from a $300 bike to say a $1000 bike probably makes less of a difference. But certainly in London (and Seattle from my experience, and probably many places in the US) I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that a nice road bike can make a bigger difference.
For context, here are some of the roads I cycle down when I cycle to work:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5110521,-0.0613274,3a,75y,...
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5106455,-0.0835212,3a,75y,...
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5118519,-0.0973481,3a,75y,...
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.5091639,-0.1195712,3a,75y,...
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.4853524,-0.1432872,3a,75y,...
Do we put GPS trackers on all bikes? Can we enforce harsher punishment for bike thieves?
"The law has always placed a higher value upon human safety than upon mere rights in property."
Firstly, bait bikes are inevitably going to be cheap bikes. Thieves are more interested in expensive bikes - and if the expensive bikes are not only more profitable, but also safer to steal, then they're bound to step up their lock-picking and angle-grinding game.
Secondly, finding someone to organise this would be difficult. Any single organisation sufficiently large enough to do this would be bureaucratic enough to insist on the same make/model of bike (for the obvious homogeneity benefits), which would make them as obvious as an undercover Crown Vic. Conversely, any kind of grassroots or community effort would (by design) need to alert as many people as possible to the venture, including the bike thieves themselves - thus spoiling it before it even begins.
Finally, these things are chop-shopped almost the instant they get on-sold. Tearing a bike down can be done in a public park in 5 minutes flat with a pocket's worth of tools. The bike thieves can adapt a lot more easily than the sting operators.
There's no reason to assume tha bait bikes are going to be cheap bikes, nor that all bait bikes would be the same make and model.
I assumed cheap bikes because of Ainmats[1] ratio of 1 in 100 bikes being trap bikes. 1 in 100 in any reasonably-sized city means tens/hundreds of thousands of dollars of kit (including GPS), and anyone with that kind of scratch has someone trying to minimise expenditure. Or, why spring for a Trek Butterfly to catch a hungry junkie when a Huffy would net hundreds of the same?
Sometimes we're being racist even though it's not on purpose. Unfortunately we're all racist up to some extent; myself included.
// Unrelated fun fact after checking your profile (I was trying to get some context for the discussion): If I'm not mistaken you're a Brit living and working in Barcelona. I'm from Barcelona, but living and working in Britain :-D
Yes, you can, but you choose not to [1]. This is a drain on society beyond the mere cost of buying replacement bikes. Bike theft discourages (even prevents) people from riding bikes. It puts us back in our cars, and makes us more sedentary. People who have never even ridden a bike before and have $200 to buy one are discouraged from buying used bikes because of the risk of buying stolen property.
The net effect--the true cost--of doing nothing serious about bicycle theft is massive, and it is borne by everyone through higher health insurance premiums, if not directly through decreased personal well-being.
Bike theft ought to be dealt with just as harshly as breaking into a gym and stealing a stationary bike...perhaps as harshly as stealing a car. Its effects are just as deleterious.
[1] I say "you" as a US person living outside the US, in a place where good bicycles are routinely left unattended with cheap cable locks, and not stolen. Still, parts like lights and pumps do get stolen, and even this does discourage people from cycling.
I sure as heck wouldn't do this back in SF, though -- the amount of petty crime the society is willing to put up with, is, again, surprising.
although, it seems like the design needs improving & strengthening [1]
[1] http://www.lavanguardia.mobi/slowdevice/local/20120802/54332...
This one model of locks. That was fixed in 2004. The whole first paragraph is fluff. The author does not know how bikes are actually stolen. I had a nice bike and lived in NYC. I used the New York Fahgettaboudit Mini [1] and a small cheap chain for the front wheel. The Fahgettaboudit has anti-theft protection up to $4,500 in US. If you are going to leave your bike in public overnight you always risk having your bike stolen. The key is to have a good lock and don't have a bunch of expensive accessories that can be easily taken.
1 http://www.kryptonitelock.com/content/kryt-us/en/products/pr...
http://www.cyclechat.net/threads/claiming-monies-from-krypto...
We've successfully recovered thousands of bikes (three in the past two days!). We've made it easy to id stolen bikes, and more difficult to sell stolen bikes - which makes ultimately bike theft less appealing.
GPS trackers are great - but unfortunately, they have yet to meet these vital requirements: easy to charge, difficult to remove, waterproof, cheap enough to put on everyone's bikes.
I ride two bikes, one worth stealing that simply never gets locked up outside, and another that nobody would ever want nor would I miss. When I ride the former, I only ride to places that allow me to take my bike inside: Roomy coffee shops or offices with storage for bikes.
As for preventing theft in general, don't leave it locked up outside. That'd probably cut down on 90% of thefts. They could improve outside safety by building special wire mesh enclosures for bikes on bike racks, which would make it more difficult to steal, more obvious someone is stealing, and generally protect the bike from vandalism and the weather.
Would be a nice hack to build something like this. How would you embed a device like this into into a frame & other parts?
Comments: "... Ryan Scheel: Might it make sense to put a GPS device in bikes encrypted with a private key that only your computer has access to? ..."
RFID inventory of parts unique to a bike?
Would be interesting if each (high value) part had a unique serial number unique to the bike. Small RFID devices for the frame, wheels, seat brakes registered to a unique frame? That way each part could be tied to a frame & identifiable to one bike.
The problem is, it will cost $150 or so, plus monthly cellular data fees (you can dial 911 for free, but the police will not do anything with this).
pre-paid sms is cheap.
Maybe that's good enough. The 2007 article posted by a reader (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8817800) mentions the sequence is: Sell complete bike on Craigslist & stripping down as the last resort moving the parts to chop shops. The high cost is another form of insurance especially for USD8K bikes.
Here's another article about what to do if your bike is stolen - https://medium.com/@stolenbikessfo/what-to-do-after-you-bike...
> The components, meanwhile—the lights, seats, handlebars, derailleurs, and brakes that turn a frame into a ridable bike—can go for hundreds of dollars each on the black market
If the whole bike sells for $20, how can each component sell for "hundreds of dollars each"???
> her $8,300 Seven Mudhoney disappeared
I didn't know bikes that expensive even existed.
So maybe the parts that sell for "hundreds of dollars" come from $8k bikes, and bikes that sell for 20 bucks are the cheap ones; but the article isn't clear on this.
It seems that owners of $8k bikes should refrain from buying parts on the black market, and that they can afford the small overhead (but added security) of only buying from legitimate dealerships?
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Regarding the problem of bikes steal, is it better or worse to have a system of public bikes that can be rented for cheap? Paris (and London, and many other cities) have a system of public bikes that are available everywhere and that are very cheap to rent; I know those bikes get stolen (or broken) sometimes but they cannot really be resold as you can't legitimately "own" one.
It would be interesting to compare the numbers of bike thefts for cities that have public bikes versus ones that don't.
The junkie doesn't give a shit about tearing the bike down and getting the best price, he just wants to shoot up and will take whatever he can get.
http://blog.priceonomics.com/post/30393216796/what-happens-t...
Wherever there is a drug trade and a high transient/drug user population, there will be issues with bike theft. Where I live it is bad