Roadster 3.0
teslamotors.com
teslamotors.com
Now more then ever I wish I bought Tesla stock before it went through the roof.
No it won't.
This upgrade concept has been tried in many consumer products over the years and it hasn't caused any ripples let alone waves. The fact is that people like buying new products. It's an opportunity for them to re-evalute their product choice. They like the experience of having something different. Many reasons that aren't simply financial/practical.
And it especially doesn't work with cars. The interior of a car wears over time in a way that is impossible to make new unless you replace it. And many of the newer technologies e.g. autonomous require massive changes to the internal system. Add it all up and it becomes very cost prohibitive to upgrade rather than simply replace.
Every part of the car interior can be replaced if it is designed from the ground up with that purpose of retrofitting. For instance you look at a dress shoe and think that the shoe has to be thrown once it is worn out, but Allen Edmonds shoes can be re-crafted once they are worn. They look as good as new. If something as tightly coupled as a shoe can be re-crafted, the interior of a car surely can be.
Also - with an electric motor most of the complexity is in the software - which can be easily upgraded. Autonomous driving - needs massive changes to the internal system ? Like what ? From what I can see - the physical changes needed are in the steering department - that's about it. Rest is all software.
I can bet any money that one day Musk will upgrade a Model S into a driverless car. Perhaps in the next 5 years.
As someone who only wears Allen Edmonds shoes, there is a limit to recrafting. I have a pair of shoes that I absolutely love, and they have been rebuilt once. But I fear that the insoles are quickly approaching the point of no return, such that Allen Edmonds won't/can't rebuild them.
Everything can be rebuilt, but there is a point of depreciating returns with things like car interiors.
I can see it having difficulty operating on small or even medium sized purchases, but a car is a very different thing. Why make a large purchase when you don't have to. People already know new cars loose so much value the second they are driven off the lot, why would you subject yourself to that if you can upgrade your existing car.
From an environmental standpoint, isn't upgrading an existing car much more friendly to the environment that digging up new metals.
As far as things like the interior wear, why not be able to upgrade a new interior. Why trash an entire car just because part of the interior is worn. So you need a new headliner, get just that. You don't need to throw away the whole car.
I'd agree that large scale changes like completely autonomous control may be difficult to retrofit, but probably not impossible as many cars are being built with park assist which means autonomous control could be mostly a software change rather than hardware. At the same time, how often do we see massive technology changes like that in the automotive space. More airbags could be tacked on to older cars, brakes upgraded to ABS could have happened. Basically, anything that has happened in the automobile in the last 50 years could probably have been a minor hardware upgrade. Even carburator to fuel injection could be an upgrade.
I also think we're experiencing a cultural shift in why and how people buy. I think the idea of just buying something new, is becoming an outdated. I know I don't want to buy just to buy, I don't go "shopping", but I definitely did in my younger days.
Lastly, can you please not state as fact what is clearly your opinion. To say "No it won't" is a very abrupt and I'd say rude response and seems to attempt to shut down discussion rather than saying "I don't believe it will have implications because..."
Modern cars are getting harder to repair (smaller spaces, closer quarters) than in the past.
I also think the entertainment electronics are getting much more tightly integrated. When I was in high school 15 years ago it was pretty common to replace your stereo (and get a CD player!); but now the whole system is so integrated into the look and feel of the car anything aftermarket will just look out of place.
Upgrading an interior probably has too much diverse meaning to meaning (does it mean dashboard? seats, console? etc), so let's leave that one for now, but I think the rest of the issues you mention have possibly already been addressed.
Older parts don't have to be more expensive, because we'll be able to 3-d print metals, or assuming we're talking about an electric car, there are less mechanical parts anyway and a company could decide on a modular design that they stick to for efficiency purposes. For instance, Toyota could decide on a shape and size of their batter pack. Then as battery technology inproves, they don't have to create a bunch of stock to upgrade old cars, as the old cars would use the same design as the new.
I agree with you regarding smaller spaces and closer quarters, but technology is also constantly shrinking too, so I think it might be possible that replacement/upgrade parts could be smaller than the one they are replacing, so as long as they share a mounting structure, it won't cause a problem.
You are right about entertainment systems, previously there was a standard (I think it was called DIN) size and there was only one size. Then they added 1.5x and I think 2x sizing. But upgrading your entertainment system used to mean getting an aftermarket system, not a system from the same manufacturer. Now, it seems to me, that manufacturers use the same or a very similar system across their brands. They aren't stocking 100s of different systems, they are stocking 5 or 6 and those are used across all of their designs.
If upgradability is thought important from the design stage, I think all of this is possible, and more.
And it's a bit early to be taking about how fantastic Tesla's cash flow situation is when they have been losing so much money in recent years. And they have so much cash locked up in a Supercharger network that has a questionable future (proprietary standard, embrace/extend model, no interest from other automakers).
I have a 2004 SUV with a 7" satnav in it and some god-awful software package. Does Acura offer an upgrade path for this? Other than a way to update the roads database, no. Buy a new SUV.
Neither does my iPhone 1. Lets hold off on this comparison until Tesla is still supporting 11 year old vehicles.
I've owned a number of cars for which I would have spent thousands of dollars with the brand upgrading them if options were available.
Almost every single car part can be "upgraded", courtesy of the aftermarket. It's not necessarily a worse system.
According to Wikipedia[1] Ford is the only one of the big three Detroit manufacturers to still have it's own financing arm. As you noted, GMAC spun off into Ally, and Chrysler Financial was bought by TD Bank.
You could take most cars of the last couple of decades, and a complete interior update, engine/transmission replacement, and suspension rebuild would still be cheaper than a new car. But few people do that.
Any source for this?
I spend some time on the Tesla forums. There are threads of people get into minor collisions and receiving estimates of 100+ hours of labour to replace some front end parts and paint, along with bills over $20,000[1][2].
So, I don't think it's as simple to replace these parts as you suggest.
[1]http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/26326-Cost-of-...
[2]http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/39325-Owning-a...
Considering you have to go to a Tesla certified dealer, I'd say that is the market price. It's not like there's a shop on every corner.
And, no, replacing undamaged parts is not "orders of magnitude" easier. Of course, it depends on how badly parts are mangled, but that's exaggeration.
Read the threads, they're interesting.
I wonder what the cost of this Tesla upgrade is going to be though.
No car company has ever existed quite like Tesla, and I think this is almost the automobile 'iPhone' in the making. They've done three incredibly important things in this press release, that has taken me a bit to fully appreciate.
First, they're the first car company that I know of that has offered serious vehicle improvements as a service, ever. Tesla is offering 40%-50% improvement on range. Imagine Ford coming out tomorrow and saying anyone can bring their cars in and we'll improve your MPG by 40%-50% for a few thousand. That's unreal.
Second, to do this, they HAD to have looked at the possibility of just releasing a new and improved Roadster, with no upgrade kit. However, they not only actively made the decision to not do that, but to offer it as an "update" simply because they saw it as a bigger benefit to their users. This is a move on par with Tesla shipping the new hardware with cars coming off the assembly line, and then activating that hardware once it was announced [1].
Third, by doing this, Tesla, is training it's customers to recognize that Tesla's are a long-term investment. It's literally a punch right in the face of modern car manufacturers, letting them know that a new car every year is not the way we do business. They're saying that this car is not a product of a year of development, but a product of years of innovation and development.
Suddenly, $70,000 for a car is a lot more justifiable if I know the manufacturer will be updating and improving my vehicle in 4 years still.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8556449 [1] http://www.teslamotors.com/en_EU/forum/forums/autopilot-info...
It is quite common for some time, that a number of features are just a bit flip in the settings if it is enabled in your car or not. That is the reason why there is a whole industry around, which do things like "chip tuning". They just reverse engineered those things.
May be you can't go to a dealer in the US. But that is related to a different market situation. I learned, in the US you buy that car that the dealer has in his show floor available. In Europe, especially in Germany I order my car to my like. I can also go to that dealer and "add" features afterwards.
They'd rather you buy a new car with the better battery pack, vs. just upgrading that component.
I think this is super awesome. The fact that range is up from 265 miles to 400 is a great accomplishment. I look forward to seeing what the Tesla team will be doing in the upcoming years.
More than 400 miles in a day is common in US roadtripping. On the other hand, breaking up those long driving days with a reasonable recharging period would be more than OK.
Actually, probably fifty people like that. Or rather organizations.
And they'll work as hard as they can to keep this from consumers.
Precisely. Would Tesla even exist today without government subsidies? Nope. For that matter, neither would GM or Chrysler.
Why are the majors seen as "evil", and Tesla as "good"? I don't understand that narrative whatsoever. I just want good electric cars, and couldn't care less who produces them.
>>I just want good electric cars, and couldn't care less who produces them.
The world would be a better place if people cared about who is producing the stuff they buy, and how.
Just a thought.
What makes you so sure? Obviously the cars would be more expensive, but then again so would their competitors'.
I wonder how's this going to affect the generated downforce (=> and, as a consequence, the aerodynamic grip). Cd for a F1 car is around 1.
Lowering the Cd will definitely improve your milage, however.
This is one of those "in hindsight" kind of things that never get fixed. The fact that Tesla is doing it says a LOT positive about them.
I wouldn't say little.
Many F1 technologies have made it into production road cars and the future of the sport will see this technology sharing increase. That's why there was the big engine change last year. And it wouldn't surprise me if their split turbocharger design that was responsible for Mercedes success makes it into their road cars.
They're fun as hell and also uncomfortable as fuck. 400 miles is more of an endurance test for the driver than the power supply. (Also, loved every second inside both of them!)
That has been the range where I'll even begin to consider a car of that sort. I'm seriously rooting for Tesla.
It seems you are stuck in a go till empty mentality. You don't drive an electric car until the battery is empty and then recharge. You plug it in at home and wake up to the battery charged to the same level every day. You'll actually save time not spent at a gas station in everyday use.
If you combine a decent range (400+ miles) with a fast recharge time, say, an hour or less, then you've got a real winner.
Most people don't have powered garages. And most of the world doesn't have power points on street parking or in apartment/work parking lots. So this "I will just refuel every day" concept really falls apart if you're trying to scale out your product.
Tesla desperately needs to get from this early adopter phase into targeting the mass market. And that means catering for people such as yourself that expect a range comparable to their previous car.
Most of the people have an electric network already installed on their house. If you have already a garage, putting a 5 meters cable is not such a big problem.
You will need a new installation anyway, because you will need more power.
Most of the world ALREADY HAVE power points on apartment-parking lots. It is called Street lighting, not used during daylight, and designed for when LED lighting did not exist. You can replace 1000+ Watts old bulbs with a 100W LED one easily today.
I have an electric car that I use a lot. Most of the fear I had when I bought it was non sense.
I meant most people don't have powered garage suitable to support an electric car. And likewise there is no solution for street parking or people who live in apartments.
> Most of the world ALREADY HAVE power points on apartment-parking lots.
No they don't. Show me where there is individual or even shared power points available for public use. The fact is that most parking lots will require expensive modifications in order to support electric cars.
You can argue the points but the fact is that for electric cars to be successful you need to address these issues. Not just put your head in the sand and pretend they aren't real. Range IS critically important to Tesla's success (or failure).
Street parking is an issue, but I imagine that we'll see a solution to that before too long.
Basically, I think you're making a big deal out of a minor speedbump.
1. Improved battery performance:
Everybody knows that batteries degrade over time. Batteries have to be replaced after some time. Batteries have a memory effect including Lithium Ion, even when the industry wants to tell a different story.
Tesla is still offering replacement batteries for the Roadster. Because, if they would not, they would have a marketing problem. Tesla now decided to source the new cells in those battery packs. Which is a normal business decision, because the original battery pack was engineered at 2005/2006. That is almost 10 years ago. As such it is a normal business decision to source the new cells instead of sourcing the old cells with lower demand (increased prices). Reminder: any carmaker supports their car models >10 years.
2. Improved tires:
Tires are improving year by year. The tires are not from Tesla. They are sourced from Godyear, Pirelli, Conti, or alike.
I have to replace my tires every 3 to 4 years as they are loosing their condition and are not fit for the roads anymore. Of course, I always choose the latest the version with the latest technology. That is a thing of ongoing business.
3. improved body (CW):
That is something you normally buy from some third party supplier, like AMG or Brabus for Mercedes, Alpine for BMW, … There is no such thing for Tesla, so Tesla made it himself.
Disclaimer: electrical engineer with contacts from within the different carmakers and other industrial markets.