Americans are 40% poorer than before the recession
marketwatch.com
marketwatch.com
We should celebrate a reduction in house prices as we celebrate the reduction in the cost of a laptop. More disposable income for the next generation and less going to the banks for creating money on a screen and then crediting your account with it.
Little story: In 2007, a member of my family landed a lot of signed contracts to commission him to do a certain type of job. These were actually so lucrative that he quit his dayjob.
Then 2008 happened. All of those signed contracts became meaningless. People simply said no, we're not paying you anymore, sorry. Fast forward a month, and he's contemplating ways to kill himself to make it look like an accident so that his family will keep their house via life insurance payments.
Luckily, things didn't turn out that way. He was able to get his job back. Somehow.
Might it be true that comparing the present to the lucrative year of 2007 isn't necessarily productive? Possibly. Probably. But it's an interesting historical perspective, and it's also interesting to remember how much people's faith in the economy matters. The type of work he was being commissioned for wasn't anything related to tech or housing. The ripples are profound, both in the upswing and the downswing.
The "wealth" created by pulling forward demand through credit through housing wasn't real. That's why living standards fell - we stopped creating wealth and started adding zeros to numbers on a screen.
Reducing house prices means more disposable income for our children. And their children. And theirs.
Yes there was a hit to the housing crash, but only because the loss in living standards was a result of the misallocation during the "boom". 2008 was just Wile E Coyote looking down having already run off a cliff.
Want to avoid a fall? Don't run off the cliff. Not looking down isn't an option long-term.
The $81,400 median net worth number cited in the article is roughly comparable to 1995 numbers in the article I found, which very well pre-dates the period that most people consider to be the beginning of the housing bubble.
The housing bubble is readily apparent in the 2004-2007 period in the graph I found, but there was still a period of rising median net worth from 1992 to 2004, most of which shows comparable or better median household net worth than today.
The article also directly addresses your point: "In 2007, median household net worth was $126,400, while the median amount of home equity was $110,000; in 2010 net worth had dropped to $77,300, while home equity had dropped to $75,000. These days, home equity is net worth." (i.e., the net value of a family's home is now pretty much their entire net worth; in 2007, that wasn't the case.)
Given that's the case, I wonder what the phrase "double dip recession" we hear thrown around referring to impending repeat economic troubles actually translates into?
http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-force-participation-rat...
Here's a good example:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-wor...
Some groups have actually seen their real wages fall over time, even since '09. If your wages are falling, then your economy is contracting, that's a recession. Over-aggregating and being pedantic about technical definitions adds nothing to the conversation, just like saying "my wages have gone up, therefore things are fine" adds nothing to the conversation (not saying you did the latter).
Edit: I'm not saying accuracy in terminology is never a good thing, if you're writing an academic or professional article then, by all means, be precise. But this isn't that kind of forum, so significant contextual inference is called for.
The OP suggested the American economy is still in a recession, which is false. Not according to any obscure "technical definition" of recession, but according to the only widely accepted definition of the word.
> Over-aggregating and being pedantic about technical definitions adds nothing to the conversation
His post opens with a statement that is plainly false. Spreading misinformation (even unintentionally) is not a good way to contribute to a conversation either.
While you might find it pedantic to learn how to use words correctly, others may appreciate the opportunity to learn about subjects outside their area of expertise.
Pvnick ultimately makes a good point, but he quite unnecessarily loses credibility among anybody who knows what a recession is. Imagine someone telling you that "The best tablet is the Android" or "Git is a bad compiler." You're likely to consciously or unconsciously discredit whatever comes out of their mouth next.
I didn't read it that way. Whether we are technically in a recession or not, from the perspective of many, many people, we never left the recession. The rest of the comment makes it clear that this was the correct way to read it. Arguing over the throwaway usage of a rhetorically convenient (albeit not technically accurate) term is a waste of time.
Pvnick lost no credibility in my eyes, despite the fact that I know the definition of a "recession", because I recognized the point being made and was able to see through the terminology.
> I wonder what the phrase "double dip recession"
Not as rigorous, but not made up whole cloth: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublediprecession.asp
noun: recession; plural noun: recessions
1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
So technically, the recession is over. There's not much room for interpretation there unless you choose a different definition of "recession".
All of the bad stuff you listed are symptoms of an empire in decline as well as a massive change in how the economy works. Industrialization changed the world and so will computers and information related technology. We're right in the thick of things. We don't know how things will turn out in the long term - that's for historians 200 years from now to figure out.
It looks like this period of drastic change will be a mixed bag. People being put out of work by automation puts pressure on the labor market. Educational systems set up in a bygone era are failing to adapt. People are having fewer children and living longer which puts stress on everything from social security to labor markets.
It will probably just take a while for society to sort all of this out. And it may or may not suck in the meantime. I think most people reading this will be just fine and probably live really nice lives. Also it'd be nice if the USA and China could avoid a war/proxy wars while trying to figure out the new world order.
Their more important claim was that people have forgotten what it's like to have enough money. It's hard to dispute that. In the tech sector, most of us have "enough" money, but it's not the case anymore for the vast majority of people in the US.
I was not, please see my reply adjacent to your's
First you said: "All of the bad stuff you listed are symptoms of an empire in decline as well as a massive change in how the economy works"
Then at the end you said: "Also it'd be nice if the USA and China could avoid a war/proxy wars while trying to figure out the new world order."
I do agree we are seeing the US in a state of decline. Too many wars, a destroyed economy just starting to recover, educational issues, floods of illegal immigrants. There's only so much one country can take. Add in the massive amounts of financial aid we give other countries and fight their wars for them, it is very reminiscent of the fall of the Roman empire.
The Roman Empire was stretched too thin and soon became overrun by other neighboring tribes. It eventually took a toll after years of invasions and recoveries. Then education began to suffer, crime increased, production decreased, and cities began to shrink.
Also keep in mind the dark ages followed the fall of the Roman empire. As such, I hardly think we've seen the end of this very turbulent time period.
[1] http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html
[2] http://clubtroppo.com.au/2008/11/23/what-is-the-difference-b...
The formal definition of recession as two quarters of falling GDP isn't prone to semantic arguments, while your soft definition, talking about "real struggle" and "what Americans see" is.
That's why we choose the former.
Inexplicably, the mainstream definition of GDP omits to explain how GDP growth is distributed.
Equally inexplicably, almost all of mainstream economic policy and theory makes similar - let's be kind - interpretations about economic experience which privilege a certain perspective while ignoring other equally valid perspectives.
So technically you're correct.
Politically, in terms of the everyday experience of most of the population, 'The recession is over' is raving nonsense.
>It will probably just take a while for society to sort all of this out.
I'm betting on a millennium or two. (At least I would if it were practical.)
>I think most people reading this will be just fine and probably live really nice lives.
So that's just fine, I guess?
The "but other people have it worse" argument does not negate the need to address bad things happening at home.
Scandinavian countries aren't >25M, neither are they "most [...] countries".
EDIT: I started thinking there's more to this argument. Scandinavian countries are more the size of the average US state, than the size of the US itself. Comparing Sweden to Michigan makes more sense to me than comparing Sweden to the US (also makes sense from a GDP perspective: Sweden had a 2012 GDP of $523 billion, while Michigan had a GDP of $408 billion; they're close in both population and wealth).
The GP's point was that the US is rich for its size, which IMHO is testament to the effectiveness of good federalization (the US being a federation of 50 semi-self-governing states). IMHO size does matter, and it's really hard to govern huge countries.
The problem is that GDP is a lousy measure of median economic well-being, which is what matters most in social policy, yet it is the overwhelmingly popular summary statistics for (mean) "economic well-being". The problems with using arithmetic means rather than medians are so large and well-known that it's astonishing anyone still uses them, but the historical inertia of such measures is huge. There are decades of social science and economic research that needs to be re-considered in the light of median measures.
The article in question is part of this process, as it focuses on median measures, and anyone who is paying attention acknowledges that median measures are far more appropriate in many cases than mean measures.
"The GDP is growing" is no more relevant to a person who can't afford to buy winter boots than "Boot production has increased". And if the median person can't afford to buy boots, that indicates a major social problem. We need to move the discussion on from GDP and talk about the median person. It's still an imperfect measure, but a much, much better one.
A "double dip recession" translates in those terms to "things getting much worse for the median person."
Perhaps unfortunate, but very predictable. We have to agree on the definitions of the words we're using otherwise we're just monkeys at keyboards. And starting from a false premise is one of the worst ways to construct an argument.
As an aside, I'm always intrigued when people use words whose meanings they don't really comprehend. I think it's interesting how we try to infer meaning from contexts and how rarely we actually check that model against reference sources.
Yeah, no more easy line of credits for deadbeats and people with zero collateral who want to flip a home they can't afford and sell at a price that won't work. Banks shouldn't provide insurance for investing.
> We have become accustomed to the 60 hour work weeks for folks fortunate enough to have jobs
This kind of thing happened way before the recession and the mythical 1950s worker who went home right a 5 is just that, a myth.
> chronic unemployment for those unfortunate enough to work outside of tech
Tech sucks. I know blue-collar guys who paint or install drywall making my salary. Except they have no student loans, no office politics, etc to worry about. Granted a lot of them pay union dues, but its okay as Joe Taxpayer has agreed to pay their pensions. Do nothing jobs like HR pay six figures. The average salary for a Chicago school teacher is $85,000. If you think tech has all the money you obviously have no finance, lawyer, or doctor friends.
>Being poor is the new norm
If you're an American, you're far from poor, globally.
It bothers me that there's so much whining from people nowadays. Its like they never became a bazaillionare so they buy into the fallacious "things were better in the past" mumbo-jumbo. Yeah, the past wasn't too bad but try not to be black or asian or latino or a woman back then if you wanted to get ahead.
It also helped that the rest of the world was rebuilding from WWII while we had all our infrastructure, business, etc still intact. Maybe being relatively poorer is a good thing if it takes a world war to make us "rich."
Not to fresh college graduates, they don't. Six figures in HR is seniority pay.
The vast majority of entry-level office jobs available today pay very poorly compared to junior SDE. An entry-level HR coordinator is typically making ~$20/hour.
$20/hr is about $40k a year. I don't live in in a city, so my first job as a developer was $42k a year. I think it's safe the say the developers I worked with provided more value than the HRC.
Meanwhile other entry-level office jobs are still around that ~$20/hr or ~$40k/year (depending on whether they're overtime exempt or not) level.
I think job creation has been decoupled from economic growth. That's terrifying for the lower class today, and will eventually be terrifying to nearly everyone.
I also think central banking has lost its effectiveness. We've had 6 years of 0% interest and money printing -- the pedal is to the metal -- but labor participation for working-aged citizens is stuck at a low not seen since the mid-1980s.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/09/E...
Scary stuff...
Most of what I read suggests that American workers are as productive as ever; the generated wealth just seems to be getting concentrated into the hands of a smaller number of people. It's not really employment or even industry that's broken, it's the exploitation of workers (and not just in the U.S., although it's pretty bad here right now), and since it is politically incorrect to suggest anything that smells even a little like wealth redistribution, the problem will continue for a while until there is sufficient public unrest.
The situation looks to me a lot like the one in the late 19th century (e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:The_Bosses_of_the_Senate_b...), except now the political fat cats and monopolists are in the news and communications industries.
If we had a low-debt cash-only economy this might not be the case, but our economy is so far from that it's not even worth talking about. We are absolutely a credit economy, and when the numbers get smaller in a credit economy pretty much everything breaks.
Eventually the collapse of the middle class will drag down everything else, including the rich.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/global_capital_markets/unev...
[1] http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science_of_... http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v307/n3/box...
One thing that's missing here, though, is the idea of amount of money to cost ratio.
For example, say you had $1000 in 2007. Now say that, in 2007, a loaf of bread cost $1000. In that year, you had enough money to buy 1 loaf of bread. Now, in 2014, you have $600 (40% less than 2007). But now, instead of $1000, a loaf of bread is $100. Now you have enough money to buy 6 loaves of bread. You technically have less money, but the value of each dollar you have is significantly more. So, are you really "poorer" now?
The issue with just looking at a single number when analyzing economic health is that it will never tell you the whole story. I can have a million dollars and still be in poverty if a gallon of milk costs 2 million.
That isn't missing at all. It's specifically accounted for. See how the graph says "in 2013 dollars". That indicates that they are using inflation adjusted values.
You should consider contacting them to explain exactly what they did wrong.
It's using average. Average is a terrible data point. I think if you replace 'average' with 'median' you'll have something more useful >95% of the time. Maybe more.
For example, it is widely circulated that the gains have all gone to the rich. Well the losses also went to the rich. It's theoretically possible that the median household, or even 90% of all households, have exhibited slow but linear growth since just before 2007. Meanwhile the upper echelon could have swung wildly down than up.
Now I'm not saying that's the case. What I'm saying is that could be the case. The data presented provides insufficent information to make any type of determination on how "Americans" are doing.
Bah hum bug!
Edit: Yup. I deserve that for failure in reading comprehension. Oops.
Reminds me of the stories I've read about the glory days of the former USSR. As collectivized farming failed, Pravda printed endless stories about how farm yields were exploding. People read these stories as they starved. I'm sure the cognitive dissonance was almost comical.
There's something oddly Soviet about the self-assured parallel universe fantasizing of American conservatism. I'm sure it's from decades and decades of fanatical anti-Communist propaganda warring. You become that which you fight.
Nearly all of the gain is being captured by a very small and apparently shrinking number of winners, while the majority are seeing flat to negative real growth.
It's not all bad news. There's never been more opportunity for entrepreneurs and people at the higher end of the skill or wealth curve. But the death of the middle is a trend that can't continue much longer until it drags down the rest of the economy and our entire civilization with it. How can you be an entrepreneur if there are no customers?
I will definitely try to find the raw data for my main issue, which is that through Quantitative Easing by the Fed (Rounds 1 and Two) the purchasing power of the dollar was devastated, which makes dollar wealth comparisons pre- and post-recession even worse than reported. If your wealth drops 20% from $100 to $80 but each $1 of that $80 buys half of what it used to, then your wealth has actually dropped by 60%: your eighty dollars has the purchasing power of forty dollars when once you had one hundred dollars of purchasing power. These hypothetical values don't exactly match the specific situation rendered by QE but give you an illustration of the worst aspects of the austerity imposed in America. I don't want to quote the exact drop in purchasing power of the dollar pre- and post-recession but I have found the data before and calculated that drop for a co-worker, and the drop was precipitous and un-reported by-and-large. I'll be back with that data when I have it.
In addition, many corporations snuck further cost-savings for themselves in terms of reducing volume of a product by unit but did not modify the unit price respectively, so they are receiving marginal increases in revenue despite the down-turn and all the weight being thrown directly on consumers.
Here are some general articles about the loss in wealth for most Americans while the wealthiest experienced a gain in wealth for the wealthiest.
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/04/23/a-rise-in-wealth-f...
In the UK, pensioners feel the bite of QE:
http://www.sharingpensions.co.uk/quantitative-easing-annuity...
There are a ton of blogs out there with people talking about the issues surrounding QE but I am trying to sift through the chaff for you. I should have bookmarked the links I used with my coworker.
[0] http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/12/racial-wealt...