I live in the Netherlands, where programmer salaries are way lower than in silicon valley, but I don't know of a single half-competent programmer without a job.
All the hiring managers are complaining here just as you describe, but the net effect is that everybody gets hired. Even the mediocre folks (note: I'm not referring to skill as in "decades of Swift experience" but "competent engineer, quick learner").
Maybe the exploded salaries of the bay area take away any financial space an employer might have for on-the-job training? People still have to create more value than they cost.
(note, I hope this is not the case, because I think programmers are grossly underpaid here in the Netherlands)