Ask HN: What stock will you buy in 2015?
With 2015 fast approaching, what stock do you plan to buy and why? What sort of returns are you hoping for, and what time period are you looking at?
Eg. Halliburton (HAL) is currently 40% off. Or Continental Resources (CLR), currently 50% off (assuming I think their balance sheet and earnings hold up well enough to the pricing pressure and there's no threat of insolvency).
I'd love to get Exxon (XOM) in the $50's or $60's on a bearish run. Its earnings will fall with oil, and its valuation should come down according (despite holding up currently); it hasn't had growth in years, this will make that much worse. Despite the lack of growth, Exxon would be a great dividend at lower prices. I view Chevron (CVX) in a similar light.
Solar companies will plausibly take a beating as well, the lower oil goes. Emotion will likely cause investors to make typical mistakes here, and push valuations too low. First Solar (FSLR) is near its 52 week low, and will probably drift lower with oil. SolarCity (SCTY) is also near its 52 week low. This while the stock market is at all-time highs.
I think the damage will get worse yet, providing great bargains. If the market happens to turn south as well, at the same time oil is down, there could be extreme bargains, ala the oil lows of 1999/2001 and the great recession crash.
long term holding period, more information here http://etfdb.com/2014/affordable-active-alpha-inside-the-u-s...
i'm a fan of Wes Gray's writing and philosophy and approach, if you really want detail read: http://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Value-Practitioners-Intel...
disclaimer: i am good friends with an principal investor in their ETF business.
I feel like Tesla might be worth it for the very long term. (again, I buy technology stock with the intent of not looking at it for 20 years)
A grid of electric self driving cars seems to be a pretty likely human future for large metropolises by 2050, and Tesla is in a good position to have a solid lead and be the Microsoft of their industry. Imagine if all of Tokyo, NYC, Beijing, etc. were traveled solely by electric autonomous cars and Tesla operated most of them.
Tesla will be to General Motors what Apple is to IBM in terms of revenue and cultural impact.
As /u/GuiA says, "I feel like Tesla might be worth it in the long term." Tesla isn't going to be Apple in my opinion though, they're going to be Google for mobility and energy storage. If you're an automaker who isn't stupid enough to go after fuel-cells, you're going to need automotive cells, and Tesla will be waiting to sell those cells to everyone.
Renewables continue to deploy at an increasing rate, but base load is still a problem. Would you rather install new nuclear or combined cycle natural gas plants? Or lithium (ion, polymer, whatever) cells stacked in cargo containers at critical power grid locations to smooth out supply and demand? Tesla will be there to sell you those too, as well as the battery packs for your home (made from repurposed Tesla vehicle packs that are no longer feasible for mobility, but are just fine for stationary applications).
The future of Tesla goes beyond just cars. They're going to control the entire electricity grid. They will control all the "supernodes" -- charging stations and battery factories -- and SolarCity, an obvious partner, will control a lot of residential nodes as well. Tesla will leverage this infrastructure to provide cheaper electricity service, by efficient routing of electrons due to the ability to store energy in the supernodes. As I seee it, Tesla is building "the internet of electricity." Given that, TSLA is undervalued by orders of magnitude.
But I tend to think that an S&P 500 index fund is just as good. However, I also believe central banks have been investing in the S&P as well, and that it's due for a large correction (valuations are currently 2x historical norms).