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Can random mutations make HIV more lethal? Sure. The argument here is that lethality makes HIV "less fit" from an evolutionary standpoint, which makes sense, as, given the means of transmission, killing the host isn't a particularly useful thing for the virus to do.

> Surely this process means that HIV is just as capable of evolving into something even more lethal over time, given the right environment?

It's unlikely. HIV doesn't "want" to kill the host because that also kills the HIV, so it's the opposite of what it wants.

You would need an environment that favored killing the host over keeping it alive, and considering how HIV is transmitted that is unlikely. (Unlike Ebola where it can happen because Ebola is best transmitted from a corpse.)

Why do people downvote questions?