This seems like more of a technology award than a Physics award. How long has it been since a pure theoretical physics Nobel has been awarded? Doesn't that say something?
They seem to be trying to clear the backlog. This year's prize is shared by two basically unrelated ideas, which must be a strategy to catch up.
1)better alternative model: generally it would not be that hard to guesstimate the possibility of a significant improvement in the very near future. And even if someone comes along and proposes a better alternative next year, I don't think there is anything to feel humiliated about, as long as the original work that was recognized by the award is really Nobel material.
2) Disproving the original model/theory: Do you know of any theory/model in physics that was considered proven to be correct, and later disproved? improvements, enhancements, yes but disproved?
Wikipedia actually has a great collection of superseded scientific theories: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superseded_scientific_theories