Given the "rifts between the [GOP's] interventionist and more libertarian-leaning wings," what are the probable endgames? Specifically, what are the odds of–and promoting factors for–an obstructionist minority flipping over the table in June?
Given the "rifts between the [GOP's] interventionist and more libertarian-leaning wings," what are the probable endgames? Specifically, what are the odds of–and promoting factors for–an obstructionist minority flipping over the table in June?
Assuming no new R's vote right, that gets us to a vote of 50 / 50, with Biden getting the deciding vote. However, in the modern filibustering Senate, 41 Senators can kill any bill.
So in theory, if everyone who voted for the bill hangs tight, they could destroy any new legislation, including PATRIOT ACT reauthorization.
However, I'd be quite surprised if neither of these things happen: 1. McConnell decides the filibuster no longer works for him, so he kills it. 2. Obama puts remarkable pressure on fellow D's and they buckle.
But theoretically, we have all the votes we need. And if 1 new R senator joins the anti-NSA caucus (and all the D Senators hang tight, and all the D senators are good on the issue), they wouldn't even be a minority -- they'd have 51 votes.
Hope that makes sense.
Some do have more track record in that regard than others though, so it might be that they won't all side with the national-security conservatives.
There were a lot a jockeying and some losses from the outsiders, but remember that Cantor got beat in the primary.