This, plus Japan's anti-immigration policy and rapidly ageing population, spells a pretty bleak future for Japan. They need some really radical reforms, not just economic policies that devalue their citizen's purchasing power and then get cancelled out by a huge raise to the consumption tax less than a few years later.
What Japan really needs is a major reform of their overbloated corporate and banking infrastructure, combined with less-xenophobic immigration policies and improved workforce participation by women, but I'm not holding my breath.
Increased sales taxes which was an especially dumb thing to do. The folks that spend the largest percentage of their income are hardest hit by sales taxes.
I don't think it was a comparison between austerity and QE that was on display. If anything, it's more a comparison between a Keynesian approach and austerity (even given the relatively anemic Keynesian implementation on which we settled). But, even that is not a fully valid comparison.
More to the point, austerity just seemed an insanely bad choice, and I am not sure that it is illustrative of QE being a good choice.
QE was more a boon to the stock market than anything.
Likewise (and ironically), the record profits that companies are realizing is due to automation and increased productivity--two things that are largely responsible for the stubborn unemployment that has actually dogged a broader recovery.
To my mind, the jury is still out on QE and, for that matter, on the sustainability of this "recovery" in the long run.
You cannot isolate variables in two separate economies; any conclusions assuming you can are bogus.
That leaves us with untested partisan theories pushed by ideologues.
I mean, how can it be that all the American conservative economists that have been predicting massive inflation since 2008 have not changed their theories at all?
Agreed.
> That leaves us with untested partisan theories pushed by ideologues.
The theory I responded to was not "tested" either. What double-blind study did the citizens of the U.S. and Europe take part in?
I live in Japan for many years and I have never seen such thing as deflation here. Prices have remained stable for most items or have increased a little bit. The idea that stuff becomes cheaper as you wait is ludicrous in Japan.
See e.g. the curve for 1995-2013: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/consumer-price-index-c... or the "index of all items" here http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/ListE.do?bid=000001033700&...
Back in reality, Japan hasn't suffered any real deflation in 25 years. Which is why their prices are among the highest for pretty much everything.
The deflation argument is a fraud cover for the failed Keynesian experiment. It's meant to give them the ability to endlessly print to debase the debt that the failed experiment took on. That's why the US Fed pretends to worry non-stop about deflation, while they massively expand the monetary base and hold rates at zero; it's a lie to provide cover for the massive inflation programs.
A new 150,000/month condo in Tokyo in 2014 has much better facilities than a then-new 150,000/month condo in Tokyo in 1994. Indeed, the latter is probably struggling to achieve rents of half that today.
On top of that, buying a new apartment has nowhere got cheaper than it was 10 years ago. Prices have been pretty much stable until they pumped up the tax recently.
A serious economist is able to differentiate between goods that can (and will) be delayed an a consumable like a can of soda. Cars are an example of a consumer good where consumption observably is affected by deflation.
The employment-to-population ratio has't recovered and is near the 30 years low.
The Japanese government needs to cut deep in spending, and that's what they have NOT been doing for the past 20 years. As long as they don't try to fix the debt problem, nothing else is going to work in the long term.
In fact, spending as a % of GDP has increased.
http://www.cato.org/blog/where-are-european-spending-cuts
There has been almost zero spending reduction in Europe. They're calling a slow-down in spending expansion, austerity, when in fact there has been no austerity.
>In fact, spending as a % of GDP has increased.
Because e.g. in Greece, GDP shrank over 30% in the last 5 years. Have you ever looked at the things a country spends its taxes on? How should it out-save it shrinkage without destroying the very infrastructure it's economy needs to flourish?
> cato.org
Cato is good PR agency, but you should not take them seriously on anything economics-related. Just look who works there, I wasn't able to find a single phd in economics there, only public relations staff (people who studied politics, sociology etc, practically no one who actually did research in any field before working there).
Sounds like a good thing to me.