Show HN: TradeMore – Generate a return on your Bitcoin
trademoremargin.com
trademoremargin.com
The only safe place for your Bitcoin is in your own wallet.
The only rational explanations here are 1) these people are actually intending to short Bitcoin and don't realize there are cheaper ways or 2) these people don't exist, and this is a Ponzi scheme.
The latter seems more likely, especially since this site claims to be covering losses on defaults (an even crazier idea than taking a BTC loan in the first place).
It's pretty clear that the reason for borrowing bitcoins is to allow shorting, in which case most of the time margin calls can cover the default risk.
To answer your earlier question, "... are there ways to invest your loan such that you could beat that rate? Consistently? The default rate is going to be sky high". I think the answer is that at scale, probably not; most people will lose money while doing heavy margin trading. But most of the time you won't lose the entire thing, you'll cash out your position at a loss and pay off the accrued interest. The only time you lose the entire amount is if you approach margin limits, in which case you'll be automatically liquidated by the exchange and the fees will be removed. The even more rare case is that the exchange is not able to liquidate your position because of an exceptionally large move in the BTC price, in which case the default coverage by the site becomes applicable.
This isn't to say that TradeMore is a legitimate site that won't steal your money, I'm just addressing the feasibility of the technique. The fact that they are a UK based company, with officers published on the site, is some comfort, though.
I'm the co-founder of TradeMore and we are excited to share with you our bitcoin lending platform.
We allow individuals to lend out their bitcoin and generate a fixed return. For those interested in trading and market making, we allow funds to be borrowed and used to trade on Coinfloor and others.
I'd be very interested to hear any questions or ideas you might have.
Thanks!
- You're running this business as a UK limited company named after the founders, who are based in the UK
- Your scheme involves third parties, probably outside your control, performing arbitrage trades on third party platforms in an unstable asset with variable liquidity characteristics in order to turn BTC into more BTC
- You're marketing a service as a "loan" offering a "return" within a specific range and offering assurances about vetting third parties using the service and covering losses, but don't include even a boilerplate terms of service or risk warning
- Nobody on the team has a background in compliance or due diligence
- You're not Bitcoin billionaires
Assuming the above are true, I hope you have a very good lawyer. Since at a glance you actually appear to be real, traceable people I'll assume you're acting in good faith and not running a Ponzi scheme which would be my first assumption based on the website's claims otherwise, but the chances of you heading in the same direction as Ponzi-scheme operators in the likely event of something outside your control going wrong are very high indeed. In all sincerity, I'd encourage you to trade less unless you have the backing of someone with a deep understanding of relevant UK law and even deeper pockets.
You're right on a number of counts, but I disagree slightly with a couple of your points. For example, our borrowers are not "outside of our control", because they only borrow on very specific accounts where we have implemented stop-loss logic and where the withdrawal address belongs to us. This functions in a similar way to when you trade through a broker.
We have not included terms of service on our website, and this is something we should do. However, we do make sure to share the full T&Cs with lenders and borrowers prior to transacting. Right now these are in the form PDF documents which outline clearly each parties responsibilities. Send me an email if you want to take a look.
Point taken about "heading in the direction" of a Ponzi scheme. I know what you mean. We could say, "oh, we've had a bad week, let's just repay our existing lenders with our new lenders funds". It's a slippery slope. To avoid this we separate client funds. So for each our of clients we know where their funds are at any given time, and do not just let funds flow from one to the other. Point also taken about trading less. Obviously we want to grow, but not to the detriment of our quality of service.
On the point of lawyers and legislation in general, we have consulted a number of lawyers in the UK and US. Generally, the feedback we have received is that Bitcoin is a very grey area, with most governments in a 'wait and see' mode. However, we want to act as if we were already a regulated financial institution and stay ahead of the curve (one day, if the FCA accepts bitcoin companies into the fold, we will be regulated).
> In the event that external markets are not able to fulfill the order necessary to close out such positions, TradeMore will act as the counterparty to cover losses.
Does this mean that you will return the entire 1 BTC to me as the lender?
So, for example, you borrow 10 BTC at, say, 20% APR interest for 6 months. You have control over 25 BTC to trade with during that time. At the end of the 6 months, you pay back 11 BTC (10 BTC + 1 BTC interest).
With 25 BTC to work with, you have the potential to gain (or lose) substantially more than the 1 BTC you paid for the privilege of using those 25 BTC during that time.
This seems like a big risk to take for Trademore, but they must have some risk management algorithms worked out on their side.
To deweller's point - yes, we have risk management algorithms. These algorithms listen to the BTC/fiat exchange rate, and if this moves against the borrower so that the value of the loan could be compromised, we issue stop-loss trades to liquidate their fiat holdings and protect the value of the loan in BTC. This doesn't completely remove risk: there is a chance that liquidity drys up completely and in that case we would have to use some of our capital buffer.
@sdouglas As I understand it most other BTC borrowing is done at a fixed rather than floating interest rate, in which case I can't imagine why anyone would borrow from you except in those rare cases where liquidity dries up and they desperately need to borrow? Or why you'd want to lend only during low liquidity situations (or to incompetent borrowers) and only to borrowers whose trading position is exposed by that lack of liquidity?
[1]As a footnote, if I were running a business with that model I'd be happiest if the BTC ecosystem crashed, in which case my BTC liabilities and all the defaulting BTC loans might be worth less than the nice juicy chunks of fiat. It would be like holding subprime mortgages if house prices massively and unexpectedly soared!
http://www.fca.org.uk/firms/about-authorisation/dual-regulat...
Also, have you picked out which non-extraditing island nation you'll be retiring to after you claim that "hackers" stole all your bitcoins and forced the shutdown of your business?
[1] http://www.fca.org.uk/firms/about-authorisation/do-i-need-to...
Re: adding a black box.
It looks like just not using "mc_embed_signup" and "mc-embedded-subscribe-form" as the form's id and class would solve the problem. Elements with those classes and ids are display:none'd by ABP.
(You can verify this yourself by enabling adblock plus, then inspecting the element)
TradeMore lends your money to borrowers who then pay the money back with interest. That is where the profit comes from.
If only 2 people use the system (1 lender and 1 borrower) the model still works. It does not depend on new investors to pay profits to previous investors.
Isn't that the traditional definition of a bank? Curious how you're able to circumvent the UK regulations that would appear to require registration as a bank.