Hacker News Reader

Comment by melling | Hacker News Reader

Yes, we're in the Century of China. It's amazing how far China has come in the past 15 years. Next person on the moon will be from China? 20,000 miles of high-speed rail? Largest subway system in the world. From 0 to the biggest in 20 years. The largest everything...

View on HN

Not so fast, there are many fundamental issues in China and Chinese economy, this does not mean I am betting on its failure. There is a tendency in the opinion-markets we either declare a total victory (with centuries attributed) or complete debacle. Actually in terms of Population 21st century is Century of Africa and in terms of economic expansion, we still have 86 years to go.

Given the record rate at which China is accumulating debt, and the fact that when you account for real inflation their GDP growth is down to a few points annually (if not contracting already), and their demographics are a ticking time bomb ('old before rich'), you don't think it's a bit early to call this the China century?

It was supposed to be Japan's century.

Can you elaborate on Japan's century? I'm a native Chinese holding opposite opinion from most of my peers back in China. So I think I know China enough. I'm curious on the Japan part. Most Chinese today are too stupid to take Japan seriously. And they only have the chance watching a balloon become bigger and bigger. I understand Japan has its own limitation, though. Thanks.

He's referring to the fact that in the 70's and 80's everyone thought Japan was going to dominate but their economy wasn't (and still isn't) built on the most solid foundation. The Japanese were buying everything on debt, include Pebble Beach, but they didn't have much backing up those payments.

China has a ton of hidden debt that's masked by the government. No one knows how much is there. When added to their cultural and demographic problems I doubt we are seeing China's ascendancy.

Thanks for your reply. I was thinking he means something else. That topic has been very hot in China as well.(At least before 2012, AFAIK. I gave up reading those since then.) They have similar symptoms. But the foundations are way different. China is playing with its structure, moving some parts to make certain parts look good and strong. It's a matter of time the structure's balance crashes or there is simply nothing left in the structure any more. Well, most of us only need to focus on now than the future. Today's cash for some kills the future of rest of us.

in fact, in 70s and 80s, japan also played with real estate, which is "structure" in your words. it was crazier than china did today. FYI:http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%B3%A1%E6%...

Yes, I'm fully aware of that as well. Both of them basically learned from the same teacher. However, even given the approaches are 100% identical, different bodies get different outcomes. They have different metabolisms.

Why 20 years?

A reasonable zero for modern China seems to me to be the end of the Cultural Revolution (I went and touched up my history to phrase it that way, but my notion was that the early 80s provide a better starting point than 1994 or 2000).

I'm curious what you (and others) think, not trying to have a hair splitting argument about it.

Yasheng Huang actually makes the argument that (from a policy perspective) China was better off in the 80s and regressed in the 90s. http://www.amazon.com/Capitalism-Chinese-Characteristics-Ent...

Sorry, I was referring to the Shanghai Subway. It was built over 20 years and is bigger than the NYC Subway. I checked and Beijing is actually bigger and started much earlier, however, and carries about a billion more people.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Metro

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Subway

Yeah and an impending CHina Banking bubble/collapse [1]

One of the most chilling quotes: (Paraphrased): "China has managed to recreate the entire US banking sector, which was built over the last 100 years, in just under a decade"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXb0F4sbOVg

This video is crazy

Video not available outside of the states?

Hmm - yeah and its not available on BBC's site either:

<pre>magnet:? xt=urn:btih:f62d5d337b82def9dd9e5520be4bbab6ad17e216&dn=BBC+Th is+World+2014+How+China+Fooled+The+World+720p+x264+AAC+HDT&tr= udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.openbittorrent.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftra cker.publicbt.com%3A80&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.istole.it%3A6969 &tr=udp%3A%2F%2Fopen.demonii.com%3A1337</pre>

Thanks for sharing;)

Please remove this url or wrap it in a pre tag, it breaks the page

<pre> seems to not work...

I recently read [1] that one of the fastest company/startup to reach $1B in revenue is the Chinese mobile phone maker Xiaomi. This brand is #3 in global smartphone market [2]. All of this accomplished without having any big customer base in the US, Europe or Japan (traditionally large markets for tech). Personally, I find this amazing at so many levels. So yeah, I agree with you, China: "the largest everything".

[1] http://www.ogilvydo.com/topics/mobile/the-secrets-of-the-fas...

[2] http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1628622/...

Also one of the most polluted places on earth.

And then biggest to stagnation or collapse. We've seen that no market or country can ever avoid this faith. It just takes longer and more catastrophic in countries where government puts a veil on everything to keep from prying eyes, and alarm ringers.

I mean if Li Kai Shing, the richest guy in HK sells all his real estate assets in China, it says something.

Some warning signs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcGM5nWYcmw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbDeS_mXMnM

Reply on news.ycombinator.com