I think they're 5-10 years away from having a solution to their organised labour problem
If they have labourers, they're 5-10 years away from an end to their problem. If they have organized labourers, they're 5-10 years away from their end.
Uber is facing union efforts. If they go through, Uber will end in 5-10 years. Autonamous transit will deploy far faster than Uber will be able to shirk off any unionized labour.
If they get unionized labour, their first attempt to implement autonanous vehicles will lead to a strike, meaning a competitor can swoop in and replace them.
Ignoring the self-driving car bit, how does unionization of drivers end Uber?
If Self-driving cars become available but are unaffordable (due to very expensive equipment onboard), Uber will be in an excellent position to make an investment in these cars where the average taxpayer will not.
Uber will then be rid of it's largest cost, human drivers. They will have the dispatch system in place to organize their self-driving vehicles and will be able to offer their service at an incredibly low price compared to the price of buying a self-driving car. Uber looks at a massive upside.
If self-driving cars are offered affordably, Uber can still offer it's services way cheaper and nothing changes on the consumer side. People still have cars. Theoretically, the demand for their service would still increase.
Drivers also currently clean, maintain, fill up (charge up) and park the vehicles for the night, so those will be some costs to be assumed by the new car owner. Someone of that size can probably cut pretty good deals with car washes, parking garages and gas stations (electric charging facilities), but it will eat up into margins.
> Uber looks at a massive upside.
Maybe. If it's a business with superb returns, manufacturers might just look into setting up their own rental/dispatching company, the way car rental companies have an equity relationship with auto manufacturers to maintain the sales. It becomes a business with a fairly low barrier to enter.