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Comment by yummyfajitas | Hacker News Reader

Oh wait we're economists - free markets are sacrosanct and they are efficient - if there is an arbitrage opportunity to short surely the rational investors will price it correctly. Not.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4589264#up_4589651

Glad to see you've changed your opinion and now believe that the (weak form) Efficient Markets Hypothesis holds.

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Just because I said that technical analysis is bullshit does not mean that I think EMT holds.

I can also say that using the times bulls shit in Colorado to predict stock prices is bullshit. That once again does not mean that I think EMT holds. It just means that the technique I called out has no predictive value.

The claim "technical analysis doesn't work" is the weak form EMH.

So yes, you are being inconsistent, unless I've mistakenly interpreted "technical analysis is bullshit" as "technical analysis doesn't work". Is it your belief that technical analysis does work, but is still bullshit?

Sorry, I read your statement too quickly. Missed the "weak". I thought you meant EMH holds (as I stated above).

Actually, I don't believe this is correct. The weak form EMH claims that any information provided by the price history of a security should already be incorporated into the current price. You can claim that Technical Analysis (construed as patterns in charts and the like) isn't valid and that weak form EMH doesn't hold, if you believe that charting fails to correctly incorporate the relevant information from the price history.

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