Comment by RockyMcNuts | Hacker News Reader

Comment by RockyMcNuts | Hacker News Reader

I would say mostly about the lower subscriber growth.

When expectations are high, if expectations aren't met, the adjustment can be abrupt.

Time Warner (HBO + Warner Brothers + numerous cable channels) is in the same content/TV distribution business, $4.3b in profit, market cap of $62b.

Netflix, $0.2b in profit, $5b in REVENUE, market cap of $27b (well, now $20b).

Netflix is competing with Amazon streaming, Apple TV/iTunes, to a lesser extent Google, Hulu.

Also now HBO, they announced today they would start letting people subscribe over the Internet without a cable subscription, all the other channels are getting in the over-the-top streaming business.

Comcast + Time Warner Cable (different from Time Warner) are looking to merge and perform a cashectomy on Netflix via 'fast lanes', before TV subscriber losses from cord-cutting really start cutting into their flesh. (Can anyone doubt that's about to happen? Anyone who has compared the experience of e.g. Roku with a cable box can see over-the-top is a 10x improvement in UX at a lower price. And with even HBO available over-the-top, literally the only reason left to subscribe to cable is live sports.)

Growth is not a given. It's a tough landscape and no guarantee Netflix will be the last one standing.

$20b is still a lot of money for a company with no profits, in a fight for its life.

I'd add as a cable-cutter sports fan that even live sports is not a big deal without cable. Buy a HD antenna and you get ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox, which covers at least the NFL and a bunch of other prominent sporting events. Buy mlb.tv if you're into baseball, NBA league pass if you're into basketball, or NHL center ice if you're into hockey - or just find live streams of the games online (but YMMV on the quality of course). Throw in a shared login with a friend for Comcast/DirectV/whatever, and you get ESPN/ESPN2, TBS, Fox Sports, NBCSN, and others.

very true...although HD over the air coverage is not universal and can be finicky even in areas with supposedly decent coverage. and not to mention pirate streams via e.g. sportlemon.

I disagree wholeheartedly as a fellow sports fan cable cutter. The problem with those sports packages is that you can't follow your home team. You can follow literally every other team, but not your own. As a White Sox fan, I would have missed probably >70% (a guess) of their games had I paid for the MLB.tv package.

Home games are often blacked out on broadcast or cable channels too though.

hmmh... how about with a VPN?

ESPN's attempt to block World Cup in USA if you didn't have a cable was pretty easily circumvented. And then there's the option of using a buddy's cable login.

>NHL center ice if you're into hockey

I only have experience with NHL Center Ice, but I've heard similar things about mlb.tv; those services suck terribly, like so much that you're left wondering if it's a deliberate choice.

In the case of NHL and MLB, here's what happens: you buy a season pass to the service for 160 dollars, and it lets you stream (with okay quality) out of market games. So when I was living in Rochester NY with my fiancee and we had a subscription to watch the Red Wings, we could watch all of their games except the games which got broadcast in Rochester (so all the games that were against the Buffalo Sabres) and all the games that were broadcast on national TV.

So it sounds a little crappy that you're missing an entire matchup, but it's actually worse than that; the entire post season is in your media market, no matter where you are. So if the Red Wings make it to the playoffs, as they have for the past twenty-odd years in a row, guess what! You spent a hundred and sixty dollars, and it didn't get you a pass to watch the playoffs, the most exciting games of the season.

And next season, you have to spend another 160, and go without watching the playoffs (or do as we did and spend a lot of time in a local sports bar).

Finding sketchy live-streams of games online is always a possibility (that's how I watched a number of playoff games that my fiancee wasn't interested in), but you're correct that the quality is incredibly variable and some of those streams are pretty sketchy.

We still haven't caved and bought cable, but NHL center ice is barely more of an option now that we're living in Santa Clara; if I want to start getting invested in the local San Jose Sharks, I'm shit out of luck because all those games would be in my market, and that still doesn't address the playoff issue.

Sports are pretty much the only reason I consider buying a cable subscription because the alternatives are honestly just really crappy, and I can't wait for the day that the leagues finally manage to negotiate a contract with broadcasters that allows for a reasonable way to stream games online.

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