So government endowments enable orchestras to experiment and hence stay relevant. Without those your analysis is spot on.
Rachmaninov, Schubert, Schonberg, Brahms, Beethoven (x6!), Mahler, Herrman, Barber, Mozart, Rota, Dvorak, Lekeu, Chausson, DeBussy
I'm not familiar with some of the names. I think Rota is a modern composer. But most of those names are composers who have been buried.
The Beethoven situation is a bit of an exception as they're doing a series with all 9 symphonies in a row. And I see a few more composers in http://www.operadeparis.fr/en/saison-2014-2015/concert--reci...
* Barber (1910-1981)
* Beethoven (1770-1827)
* Brahms (1833-1897)
* Chausson (1855-1899)
* Copland (1900-1990)
* Dvořák (1841-1904)
* Herrman (1911-1975)
* Lekeu (1870-1894)
* Mahler (1860-1911)
* Mozart (1756-1791)
* Praetorius (1571-1621)
* Prokofiev (1891-1953)
* Rachmaninov (1873-1943)
* Ravel (1875-1937)
* Rota (1911-1979)
* Schubert (1797-1828)
* Schönberg (1875-1951)
* Spohr (1784-1859)
* Strauss (1864-1949)
* Suk (1874-1935)
* Susato (1500-1561)
* Tarrega (1852-1909)
* Verdi (1813-1901)
I'm glad to see musicians continue to be employed because it makes the world a better place. But the 'classical music' cult was weird. It's like the State Fair tap-dancing talent competition. Why is it there? Because they've always done it. Not really a spectator sport, but folks spend 10000 hour getting good at it anyway. I'm not going to cry over the 'death spiral' of tap-dancing either.
I believe that in a world where the 3 minute radio-friendly song is an artifact of a bygone era and the constraints of physical media are gone, there will be a major resurgence of interest in epic, complex works of music. Just as Netflix has made psychologically complex, extremely long TV series much more central to our culture, I think people will start to gravitate to headier music that was constrained by yesterday's media.
Powerful stuff. Maybe Beethoven would've been a movie composer if he was alive in the modern era.
See, for example, http://properdiscord.com/2014/07/22/scott-timberg-ive-got-a-...
There are many other similar posts, all full of facts, on this blog. Alex Ross himself has written on the subject.
Now, name a modern, orchestra composer who's work you've listened to (excluding motion picture soundtracks)?
Now, imagine if rock music stopped at Pink Floyd's The Wall.
Ticket sales don't lie. Symphonies are shutting down all over the country.
Some symphonies are shutting down, but the Chicago Symphony just announced increases in ticket sales and attendance. Excitement over my local orchestra, the Seattle Symphony, is increased in recent years since they hired a new music director and commissioned a Pulitzer-prize winning piece by John Luther Adams.
For me, I think my concern about modern composers is that I associate them with highly dissonant or atonal music... I realize those are problematic descriptions, but I don't know the right terminology. Now, I do like atonal music to some degree -- I play the shakuhachi; perhaps honkyoku could be lumped into "atonal" somehow -- but encountering it at a concert where it wasn't the main draw for me is not always the most exciting experience, especially if I'm bringing someone who isn't into classical music and now they have to hear something that sounds like violins dying for 20 minutes (disclaimer two: I love Takemitsu's November Steps, which has violins that sound like they're dying).
I'm not saying that older music is objectively better or something like that, but I think it's not hard to argue that for many people it's a bit more approachable. As such, I think that artists who can write works that span between the old and new, such as in the case of Mason Bates' piece, will be critical in bringing in new audience members.
Alan Hovhaness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nG_gAMwGG-Q
Why are we excluding motion picture soundtracks?
Whenever I would go to a chamber music event or an orchestral performance there will generally be two sets of people there - the old school bougie folk and a handful of conservatory students - the casual audience member is far and few between. Orchestras will have a better chance getting an audience by performing pops or some program full of video game music.
Still, going to the symphony hall, being part of that scene, this might retain it's importance for the upper class / professionals, and this alone could be enough to continue to support more than a handful of orchestras around the United States.
* And the only reason I can is because I studied composition and theory at University.