Secretive X-37B Military Space Plane Could Land in California Tuesday
news.yahoo.com
news.yahoo.com
Although the X-37B's mission is a closely guarded secret, many facts are public knowledge. I compiled a quick timeline a while back and seeing as it is in the news again, I am reviving it.
1998 : During the Clinton administration, Boeing test drops the X-40A, a test vehicle that would later be developed into the X-37. The government's own National museum of the US Air Force [freely states](http://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id...) "The SMV program aimed at developing a new generation of small and reusable, highly maneuverable space vehicles for deploying satellites, surveillance, and logistics missions."
1999 : Public acknowledged start date of the X-37 project. Obvious similarities between the X-40A, launched a year earlier, and the X-37 show that work had already been started on the project, in one form or another.
2004 : The Bush administration decides to shake up nasa and outlines it's [Vision for Space Exploration](http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55583main_vision_space_exploration2....). In it, they outline the future of spaceflight laying out the, later cancelled, renewed efforts to send manned missions to the moon and later mars. In it they talk about a new generation of launch vehicles. This document is the beginning of the end for the already aging shuttle program. In it, they spell out that the shuttle program's only continuing purpose would be to finish the international space station.
2004 : Also in President George's plan is the further classification of the X-37/X-40 projects as they are [moved from NASA to Darpa](http://www.space.com/337-nasa-transfers-37-project-darpa.htm...) where a tighter lid can be kept on the whole project.
2006 : First Drop test of the X-37
2009 : Barack Obama is elected POTUS
22Apr2010 : First launch of the first X-37, Mission USA-212, and lasted 225 days
5Mar2011 : A different X-37 is launched and lasted 469 days
11Dec2012 : Another X-37 is launched and is still in orbit at the time of writing this. It is possibly that it is the same ship as was used in the first launch. As of today it has been in orbit, 657 days. USA-240 Mission
8Oct2014 : [NASA Partners with X-37B Program for Use of Former Space Shuttle Hangars](http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-partners-with-x-...)
13Oct2014 : [The X-37B is reportedly going to land in California Tommorrow](http://news.yahoo.com/secretive-x-37b-military-space-plane-c...)
My personal conclusions on all this lead me to believe the following however I highly recommend anyone with interest in the subject research it and make your own conclusions as I might have missed something: Due to the long amount of time they have kept each X-37 in orbit and the apparent desire to keep one in orbit at any given time, I personally believe that the mission is ongoing and of perceived strategic importance to the united states. Given that the US government itself has described the X-37's predecessor as a "highly maneuverable space vehicle for deploying satellites, surveillance, and logistics missions" I believe this is exactly what it is doing. It is an orbital space plane with a next generation optics and surveillance package that has the added ability of being able to change it's orbital inclination in the event that a certain spot on the earth needs observation urgently. Changing your orbital inclination costs a lot of fuel so you still want to be able to deorbit to be able to refuel and have another ready to take it's place when you do this. This also gives your engineers at Boeing time to make improvements and upgrades on one bird while the other is flying keeping your optics and sensors at the cutting edge all the time.
This report explains the background, scope and goals of the X-37 project.
The title of the second part of the report sounds interesting: "Is Space the next Pearl Harbor?"
With the payload bay the size of a pickup bed, it doesn't seem like it could carry much.
Now that is a 1970s satellite. Since then camera technology, battery technology, and circuitry has moved forward significantly. It would not surprise me if a 2014 intelligence platform could fit into the bed of a pickup truck.
[0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corona_(satellite)#mediaviewer/...
If it's taking instantaneous pictures of an area on the surface of the earth it's hard to avoid certain limits and I Remain convinced the X-37B is definitely not a traditional optical photographic intelligence gathering platform.
If anything I'd hazard it's doing something like running experimental hardware they think could be used for *LINT of some kind but needs space testing to see if it's worth building a dedicated satellite or two for the stuff.
Or collapsible structures.
Since the three tests that were done all had long durations, I really wonder what the mission profile for this thing is.
Some sort of readiness is needed, that is, it needs to wait in orbit, rather than relying on a launch schedule.
Launch -> deploy a payload -> wait -> capture a payload (either the one already deployed or some other one) -> return to Earth
The longest shuttle mission was 17 days, and they deployed and recaptured two satellites in that time.
It's possible these are used as a platform for servicing existing Air Force/government assets in space.
If you look at Hubble as an example, it required servicing every 2-4 years. Space instruments suffer pretty steady degradation, and various transient events can cause that to degradation to accelerate.
If you spend a few billion to launch an instrument, and you need to replace it entirely every few years, you're spending a lot of money on replacements, but it may only be small parts that need to be replaced or repaired. Having a "pick up truck" of modular, drop-in components waiting in orbit could greatly extend the life of surveillance equipment and reduce the amount of downtime (either out of commission, or operating with reduced coverage).
Consequently we should already know with some certainty whether this shuttle approached any other satellites closely – so at least we wouldn’t need to speculate about whether or not part of this shuttle’s mission is to get up close and personal with (non-American) satellites.
Moving around in space is very challenging and this small thing can certainly not do any miracles, so any change in orbit would be not very large. I doubt this little thing can dramatically change the size and inclination of its orbit – and with that limited manoeuvrability it should be easily observable.
A series of space surveillance satellites developed covertly by the Air Force and Orbital Sciences to provide a space-based capability operating in the near-geosynchronous orbit regime supporting U.S. Strategic Command space surveillance operations as a dedicated Space Surveillance Network (SSN) sensor.
According to USAF officials, the GSSAP satellites will drift above and below the GEO belt, using electro-optical sensors to collect information on satellites and other objects in that region. The satellites are maneuverable, allowing them to collect intelligence on specific target satellites. GSSAP provides “accurate tracking and characterization” of satellites.
Given the nature of the US bureaucracy, it's not unthinkable that certain satellites are simply not tracked or published by NASA. How and with what extent and accuracy others may be tracking worldwide satellites independently of NASA is an open question.
Which is indeed true[0], but due to the attention of amateur observers there is very little in orbit that goes untracked
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
Its members compile many elements from direct observation, including those for the 'unmentioned' satellites.
[0] actually they're not tracked by NASA but by USSPACECOM, and to use their elements one has to accept a restrictive non-dissemination agreement. Many observers do not, and use community-calculated elements instead
Sounds like the plot of You Only Live Twice
The first nukes in a large scale war will be detonated in space to eliminate communication, spy, and other satellites. If an opposing force has a successful 1st strike then a rapidly deployable surveillance platform to re-establish our capabilities would be highly valuable.
I must ask.
> Large scale war? Give me a break.
Are you suggesting that large scale war cannot ever happen in the future. That it's completely outside the realm of possibility? Is it an impossibility?
A "limited" nuclear war is an absurdity, and it's dangerous to even think that it might be possible let alone end in anything other than massive destruction.
That doesn't explain why we know it's coming down, but I'm guessing that leaked or wasn't considered sensitive.