Several troubling indicators exist: - US employment rates are only now on par with pre-2008 crisis levels - Current new job creation tends to be in low-income employment - Margin debt in equities has been touching historic highs - Household debt, particularly among new graduates, is also at or approaching historic highs - Oil and other commodities prices are falling, representing declining demand for goods created with such resources - Political risk is rising and US capacity to deal with it effectively is, in my estimation, limited
Taken alone, these are all concerning indicators. Taken together, they have prompted economists and, recently, the IMF to issue strong warnings about exposure to equities and the upcoming US economic climate.
However, I wouldn't say this constitutes a near-term "collapse". The US will likely go into recession, or stagnate for the coming two or three years. Much of the growth in the past six years has been on the back of Federal Reserve management, so when the support ends, the economic cycle will continue a downward course. This in turn will make it cheaper to resume manufacturing in the US, compared to other countries, and production of a number of new technologies and components being developed now (solar energy, semiconductors, autonomous vehicles) may grow in the US, leading to wider growth and recovery. US infrastructure is also due for a makeover, so programs investing in the restoration of roads and bridges will also lead to improved employment and growth.
Of course, several of these factors require government action, rather than trust in market actors, so it's really a matter of personal politics whether you expect collapse, decline, or growth. Still, as I pointed out, the indicators are difficult to ignore. I personally pulled a lot of cash out of equities and decided to build a cash base to insulate me from a stock market correction and provide liquidity for either buying after a correction, or investing in real estate. Or maybe I'll be able to get a boat on the cheap... always wanted a boat. All of this is to say, you can't predict the future, but I'm expecting a decline and I've created options for myself to deal with what I expect.
(2) Check whether the economist peddling this view incidentally is funded by the Russian government (e.g. works for RT) or a similar entity interested in pushing up US treasury yields.
(3) Check whether the economist peddling this view has been repeating the call for a collapse bi-weekly since the Carter administration. A clock is right twice a day after all.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/07/01/these-23...