> This "recent boom" in the US remains cash negative - about 600b capex for about 500b in oil. And we don't know yet whether that's going to change.

Yes! This is the critical point: Peak Cheap Oil. We're pouring money into more and more costly holes in the ground.

We'll never run out of oil; it's never been about running out of oil. We've just run out of the cheap stuff. It's not coming back.