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Microsoft Prediction Lab

prediction.microsoft.com

83 pointsmetermaid20 comments

I'm excited that Microsoft is dedicating some resources toward building a prediction market platform. It joins the space now occupied by Foresight Exchange, SciCast, Inkling Markets, Lumenogic, Predictious, Truthcoin, and similar software platforms. Hopefully Microsoft will build a better product and find more success, though so far it seems like the lack of prediction market uptake seems to be the result of low demand, not low supply.

As a long-time participant in prediction markets, I'll a list of my initial impressions of the Microsoft platform.

(1) I think it's big mistake to mix opinion polls with forecasts. It's quite confusing when one set of questions asks for facts and another set asks for opinions. It's also confusing when one set affects your score and another set does not. I think users would have a better experience if the two categories were totally separated (or if the opinion polls were just axed).

(2) The scoring method they're using is not at all transparent. I suspect it's the logarithmic scoring rule (best for low-volume markets), but the interface doesn't make it clear how the bets relate to the odds. (Look at SciCast.org for one way of doing this.) I understand that the math behind betting can be offputting to new users, but it's also tough to get engagement when new users don't really understand the possible actions or their consequences.

(3) The default bet sizes are awful. 100 points out of a 1,000 point balance means you'll be practically done with the site after 10 bets. Even if your bets are accurate, you can't bet again until they resolve. The SciCast play money market has had significant problems making accurate predictions because of a lack of liquidity for its high-volume users, who also tend to be the most accurate users.

(4) I think I've already run into some bugs. When I vote in polls, it looks like my vote is being assigned to a choice different from the one I voted on.

(5) I thought the design looked nice at first, but there are some usability problems. It's annoying how forecasts with three options require you to click a small button to scroll from side to side. A big part of casual non-algorithmic prediction market participation is quickly scanning over the markets to look for obvious mistakes. Making it hard to scan over the forecasts makes the market harder to use and less accurate.

Anyway, the momentum behind prediction markets has been growing for years. Perhaps in the future more companies will try experimenting with internal markets to predict things like whether projects will finish on time or on budget.

I wish Microsoft success with this new product.

I'm not sure I understand. I have 1000 points, but I only have 400 points for this week? When I spend my points on a bet, my available points don't decrease? There are only three polls I can bet on, the rest are just free opinion polls?

Not sure if I'm missing something.

Ah I figured it out. Some of the polls are polls and some are predictions. That's user un-friendly.

Sounds similar to the Good Judgement Project: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/

I signed up for the next season of the GJP after reading that article when it was on HN. Pretty excited to get started.

Interesting. What's also interesting is that they allow signing in with the Google+ accounts.

Will data culled from here be used in Bing Predicts?

( http://blogs.microsoft.com/next/2014/06/11/how-does-bing-pre... )

Oddly - I'm about to roll out my own prediction market next month. Does anyone know if they have tried something like this before?

MS has experimented with prediction markets internally off and on. This particular market is being run by David Rothschild who is a researcher at Microsoft. He's run the site http://predictwise.com for quite some time and done a really nice job with it. I've met David in person and he's an uber smart guy with some really good ideas. This is a "labs" project for the time being as the name implies, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of this work make its way in to MS products in one form or another, i.e. embedded prediction market style questions in Sharepoint or MS Project, or even as ad units on Bing to collect a massive pool of forecasts.

I understand prediction markets are illegal in some countries, but ipredict.co.nz is very popular here and is often covered in mainstream media.

If you let people predict with play money only, it should be legal in most countries.

Intrade was a popular one, now closed. The big problem I see is lack of liquidity in the less popular markets.

Yes it was a total and utter failure as I recall: ipredict.msnbc.com

http://web.archive.org/web/20080820025756/http://ipredict.ms...

I think Foresight Exchange was one of the first ones: http://www.ideosphere.com/

It's from around 1995 or 1996, as you can probably tell from the site design.

http://home.inklingmarkets.com/ is a YC2006 company that offers crowd predictions as a saas.

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Reminds me of https://www.predictious.com/

this would make an ideal mobile experience. I wish they had provided an API to build an app on top of it.

Alrighttt!! The Tec-giant is emerging again! Really excited to hear this news.

Maybe it can predict which Microsoft lab will be closed next? ;-)

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