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>These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.

Even at 2.5, which to me is low, that 1.4x2=2.8 times another half doubling and were looking at 4.2 million. That's quite a difference.

If the under estimation is by a factor of 5 then you're looking at 44.8 million.

The exponential value is really important, especially in the early and end games ;)