Well, I certainly don't have that much money to bet, but I wasn't surprised by the results. Just because a couple of late polls suggested that "Yes" was ahead doesn't mean much when the bulk of the polls still showed "No" in the lead. You have to understand that the polls only sample a (relatively) small number of people and therefore, when taken individually, have large margins of error that are sadly rarely reported. You have to consider all of the polls together as a set.