Why Scotland Won’t Be Europe’s Last Region to Seek Independence

Of course not. Who with any knowledge of Europe thought it might be?

The thesis is that the presence of the EU, which can provide military and economic support, makes independence more likely.

However, Ireland became independent without any infranational system, as did Finland. More recently, Czechoslovakia also split up, into the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and again without looking towards the EU or other larger protective system, and without being a regional reaction to the main capital city.

Then there's the independence of the former eastern bloc countries after the fall of Soviet power, the independence of Malta from the UK in 1964, and of Montenegro in 2006.

The thesis doesn't do a good job of explaining all of those historical independence movements. Why should we expect it does a good job of explaining future movements?