Boeing-SpaceX Team Split Space Taxi Award
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
Am I the only one who finds this a bit misleading? That was a highly experimental version of the 9 that failed. And it failed while trying to do something no rocket this size has ever done. It seems that would be worth mentioning.
Next paragraph: "The Atlas V boosters chosen by Boeing have a flawless record launching high-priced military payloads."
...yet the google finds me this: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1222 "Two top secret National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) ocean surveillance spacecraft were fired into the wrong orbit June 15 when the 200-foot-tall Atlas V rocket they were riding on stopped firing too early in space following launch from Cape Canaveral, Fla."
I guess I'm not surprised the media is uninformed (or biased) but it still ticks me off enough that I feel the need to point it out.
They didn't mention the Atlas V is built using RD-180[1] (aka Russian engines) even though much of the discussion is about not begin dependent on the Russians for access to space. Or that the expected cost per launch is not cost competitive. But the good news is that doesn't matter, what matters is how well both companies execute against the objective of a reliable manned launch capability.
FTA: "To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Johnsson in Chicago at jjohnsson@bloomberg.net"
> The Atlas V boosters chosen by Boeing have a long history of launching high-priced military payloads. The challenge: The United Launch Alliance rockets rely on Russian-made RD-180 engines whose availability is threatened by tensions between the U.S. and Russia.
Seems more like vice versa.
Bloomberg is sort of a catch22 with musk. They try to highlight him as much as possible, even so far as to over praise him with really stupid matters. Then one little mistake or negativity, it is blown up and seriously investigated and written about.
Investors do prefer public companies for obvious reasons.
He sent a very large, very rude and very nasty email back. I was a bit taken aback, and so I never bother anymore.
This sentence was not misleading and was basically stating facts.
A very common question people have is about why the money is broken up between Boeing and SpaceX as it is. Why does SpaceX get a smaller amount?
The awards were based specifically on the estimates that each company submitted in their proposals. In other words, Boeing said they need $4.2 billion and SpaceX said they need $2.6 billion.
This is very telling because the proposals are for the same NASA requirements. SpaceX is saying they can do it 1.65 times cheaper than Boeing.
NASA is not currently commenting on their decision process for choosing to award these two companies.
My personal supposition is that its a best-of strategy. NASA has a high priority to get human launch capability back under our control. They also have competing requirements. Do it as inexpensively as possible. Use multiple partners to fulfill the commercial spaceflight mission. They also need the assurance that the companies they work with can actually complete the contracts.
Boeing is an old dog and partner to NASA. They have decades of experience behind them. SpaceX is relatively new and while increasingly successful with delivering launch vehicles, they've not yet built human launch craft. It makes sense, when you think of it as a way of hedging NASA's bets, to choose these two companies even though their award amounts are vastly different.
Its clear to me that SpaceX is taking the bigger risk here, they have way more things that are untried but I am so hoping they make it to the finish. Boeing would develop a slightly better capability than Soyuz (7 astronauts vs 3) but SpaceX would deliver capability far in excess of that, 7 people landed where you want them on land or on sea.
They both look pretty plain to me. I mean, Musk can lay on some shiny metal here and there, but they're both soulless capsules. I really like the Dream Chaser; a 1/4th size STS that can be mounted on the tip of existing rockets is very tempting.
I think Boeing's marketing wants people to know that it won't have the Musk-like cult of personality, but it can deliver the goods, thus the talking points about hitting milestones.
I wish both of them the best of luck. This isn't a competition, its delivering LEO for NASA. I think people who see it as some kind of "my guy vs yours" are missing the point.
From a tech perspective, and keeping in mind that I can presume the goal of human spaceflight to be to push humanity further into the cosmos, I see one thing really exciting about Dragon 2 that CST-100 doesn't have--propulsive landing. A NASA Ames research team says that Dragon 2 thrown by Falcon Heavy could execute a fully propulsive EDL on Mars. This seems like interesting heritage to build, and shows that development of Dragon 2 could have implications on further spaceflight.
Plain is good. Plain (in this context) is correlated with reliable.
Here's the thing with the STS. The lifting-body design spreads a critical system component (the reentry system) over a large area, necessarily on the outside of the craft.
A capsule with a more conventional ablative re-entry heat shield is more durable and reliable. It is also protected for most of the mission. It can be engineered with plenty of design margin (at minimal weight penalty), to deal with unexpected circumstances. That makes for a good design.
The TPS on the STS has partially failed several times [1], and once catastrophically.
It's much heavier than a Dragon v2, meaning it carries less payload for the same launch cost, for more or less the same land-where-you-want capability. It's pretty, but pretty does not solve the problem.
CST-100 makes similar promises if it can be matched with a reusable launcher (perhaps F9R). I'm not sure if they're looking at similarly short turnaround times (probably not). But they're much less far along and it's hard to judge if they can deliver.
Dream Chaser also makes similar promises, again if it can be matched with a reusable launcher. What's the advantage of it over the others? As far as I can see, the only real advantage is less gee loading during reentry. In exchange, you add a lot of complication and weight (wings and wheels). It doesn't seem worth it at all.
Spaceplanes look cool, but what's the point? The goal should be robustness and cheapness, with reusability a necessity for enabling the latter. Vertical powered landing with a capsule looks like an excellent way to achieve this.
Perhaps Dream Chaser was ready to do all those things. I wish it went forward as well. But the technologies in Dragon 2 will make a big difference.
I'm very happy with this announcement.
The companies pretty much wrote their own milestones. Most of Boeing's milestones in the last part of the program were paperwork milestones vs SpaceX's milestones which involved actual testing.
The main ones SpaceX haven't completed yet, that they had as milestones for the last part of the program were pad abort test and in-flight abort test. Boeing are no where near doing those on the CST-100, SpaceX have them scheduled for November and January, respectively.
Just because they completed their milestones, doesn't mean they are ahead of SpaceX in total development. They are in fact far behind.
It will be an interesting competition :)
SpaceX is the cool, fast-moving, forward-thinking—but potentially more risky—alternative. Boeing is the boring, slow-moving, business-as-usual, military-industrial-complex alternative.
I suspect that privately they hope SpaceX succeeds, but they also want a backup plan that's more conventional, if less good in some sense.
[As to why Boeing's getting more money than SpaceX, I suppose because Boeing probably uses money much less efficiently... they need more to reach a similar point... >< ]
If they had chosen just one winner, I presume that, given the inherently risk-averse nature of NASA and the political realities of lobbying and pork-spreading, it would have been Boeing. The same factors almost certainly meant that Boeing would have to be one of the two winners under the current plan.
There won't be a market for space travel until it's a reality, so this would seem to be one of the only ways forward.
I'm not trying to defend stefan_kendall3's position, but you made a pretty large personal value judgement in that statement. You think this is "the most important technology in the history of technology"; many people don't.[1] In fact, many people think that human spaceflight, including some of the Earth orbit missions we already run, are a waste of valuable resources that should be diverted elsewhere.
[1] For the record, I think human spaceflight is pretty important in the long term, but disagree that it is most important area of technology. I think certain areas of medicine should be placed ahead of it, for example.
I was genuinely hoping someone would provide a defense of stefan's position, but it's looking less like it'll happen. That's too bad, because it was a chance to learn something.
If you are interested in learning how, read this short letter:
Exactly. Minecraft is work $2.5bn now. SpaceX may well be worth a lot more in the future, but neither company is at the same stage of development in their respective fields.
If they both do not succeed and we assume that SpaceX reached too far, then NASA still looks like the good guy because they gave them a shot.
What's the big picture?
Edit: Comment 8326972 by terravion also suggests picking a single winner wasn't an option, which I wasn't aware of, aside from the issue of the relative award magnitudes.
http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/41891nasa-selec...
I's speculate that Boeing presented the low risk route--nobody doubts they can meet the requirement if they get paid enough. I'd imagine that SpaceX presented the lost cost bid, probably viewing their bid as more of a subsidy for work and risks they are undertaking regardless.
EDIT: Listening to the follow up questions on NASA HQ UStream Feed the following questions and answers were asked (both questions and answers are paraphrased by me, I can't type as quickly as they can speak):
Q: Why did Boeing receive more than SpaceX?
A: Both companies proposed costs for their proposals to acquire capabilities to fulfill the RFP, and the government accepted both.
Q: Why two rewards instead of one?
A: It was in the government's best interest.
"Technically, if somebody were to stow aboard the cargo version of Dragon, they'd actually be fine. I mean, hopefully." -Elon Musk
Boeing's advantage in years of experience extracting the most possible money from the government?
Off topic: it's "making do", not "making due". Non American English speakers pronounce the two quite differently, so this is a really startling error for us...
Any more details on why SNC got passed up?
Because they had enough money for one or two, but not all three. And they want two so that they can spread the risk.
SpaceX are almost finished and are so far ahead in development that it would be an outrage for them not to get part of the contract.
And Boeing because there would have been a lot of political backlash if they didn't get the nod, due to their political influence.
Although this may not be the official reason, I am pretty sure that this is the real reason.
[1] http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/05/us-house-pares-nasas-...
>NASA has set the stage for what promises to be the most ambitious and exciting chapter in the history of human space flight.
This PR speak is what I don't like though.
If some magic scenario arose where the US had to put a person into low-earth orbit and bring him back alive or, say, the Earth would be destroyed, it could probably be done within a month. SpaceX can pretty much do it right now. Throwing together a quick "spam in a can" capsule could be done by other companies pretty quickly, and tossed atop an existing launcher.
What takes so long is building something that can actually deliver people and cargo to an existing destination, do so safely (without breaking the destination or the people), transport people who aren't military test pilots, and not cost a noticeable percentage of GDP while doing it all.
Sigh, our priorities suck.
If Russia did a 180 and suddenly behaved itself and left Ukraine, maybe your scenario could happen but what is the likelyhood of that.
I realise there's practical differences in terms of the current rate of progress between Space-X and Reaction Engines, but in the long term (and making the huge assumption that they'll get Skylon built), I think Reaction Engines has the better plan.
If only they would have relied on the opinions of web developers rather than experts in the aerospace industry.
I'm happy with the outcome but I don't hate Boeing so I'm obviously biased. That being said, I hope Elon demonstrates his ability, and will cheer him on.
I'm not sure if "lobbying is effective" counts as a conspiracy.
Loser: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/16/nasa-dream-chaser...
Winner: http://ronvanderende.nl/?p=513
Oops I'm sorry I meant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CST-100#mediaviewer/File:CST-1...