The original order, if I recall properly, would have created Microsoft Hardware with Windows/phones/TV boxes/handhelds/etc., and Microsoft Software with Office, IE, BackOffice, Outlook, etc. Note this predated the Xbox, Bing, etc.
Maybe it's true that Microsoft Software in this alternate universe would have turned to the cloud earlier than our MS did, but remember Microsoft Software was still pretty much desktop software with the exception of MSN (remember that?). Maybe Microsoft Hardware would have done a better job with mobile devices. Or maybe we wouldn't have seen devices like the Xbox or Kinect without those cross-business subsidies, and the Playstation wouldn't have any real competition today, and there would be less search competition without Bing and the MS money flowing into Yahoo, etc.
Really too many variables.
Microsoft's hubris caught up with them in mobile, and they learned some valuable lessons. I would say they are better off now as the Microsoft they are today than they would have been if they had been carved up.