Hacker News Reader

Comment by nmeofthestate | Hacker News Reader

In the latest opinion poll from the most No-friendly pollster[1] 'Yes' is ahead in all age groups apart from the over 60s, where No is way ahead. If there is a No vote it seems likely to have been won by the old. This backs up the narrative from this article that Britishness is dying out in Scotland (of course, pensioners have also been frightened by scary stories about their pensions, and tend to be more small-c conservative, so it's not entirely an identity thing)

[1] YouGov. Different polling companies appear to have different systematic errors in their results, meaning that polls are spread fairly widely. This particular polling company has until recently been showing large leads for No. In their most recent poll the lead had been cut down to 6%, reflecting a feeling 'on the ground' that there's a genuine shift happening. Personally I am still totally unsure what result we'll get in two weeks (two weeks!)

View on HN

Britishness not dying out, on the contrary actually, this referendum has fueled a resurgence: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence...

Also this: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk/blog/why-are-young-scot...

This is pretty unremarkable - you'd expect things like this to "harden up" during a referendum.

Going to interject here. YouGov is pretty good with their predictions on political matters. It appears their panel is roughly aligned with the outcome which is a pretty powerful place to be.

Not suggestion that it isn't any more than hocum but it's quite easy to deduce this from the media and the pollster statistics (which is something that YouGov do).

The SNP probably brought in voting for 16 and 17 year olds on the basis that it might counter the strong 'No' vote in the 60+ group.

However, that group is fairly equally split (45% Yes/44% No). I reckon they underestimated how strongly popular culture, which is focused on London, influences the 16/17 age group.

I will note that reducing the voting age to 16 in general elections is probably on the cards for the UK as a whole after the next general election:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21178379

Its a dangerous game though as young people are unpredictable. I'm trying to find a link to the source but I read recently that the far right Jorge Haider was elected in Austria in the first election after 16/17 year olds were given the vote and the youth vote was a strong factor in his success.

Edit: Whoops this was meant to reply to cstross below as a general point about unpredictable youth voting intentions not the intentions of Scots youth in particular.

"The SNP probably brought in voting for 16 and 17 year olds on the basis that it might counter the strong 'No' vote in the 60+ group."

Support for votes at 16 is long-standing. As is support for the same measure by most UK parties.

On the subject of 16-24s being 'equally split' - note the same could be said of other age-groups (apart from the more strongly No cohort old people), so 16-24s being the same doesn't say much for a resurgence of Britishness amongst the young.

Pensions of the old are guaranteed by the UK Government, there is very little for them to be afraid of in the event of a yes vote. It would be a shame if that were the reason for a No win.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com